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A look at key congressional races

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    Control over House, Senate at stake

  • Duration 5:03
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We are America's election headquarters and control of congress at stake in November.

-- every single house seat up for grabs right now Republicans are in control on the house side after winning big in 2010.

With 242.

Seats to the Democrats 109 -- There are no independence and right now three vacancies.

And in the senate the balance balance of power tips toward the Democrats they have 51 seats the Republicans 47 the independents.

Have too but -- GOP could be poised to make gains.

If not take control in November.

Joining us now -- 70 director of the center for politics at the University of Virginia Larry it's good to have you on.

So what when you look at the house side the house had that monumental shift last time around what do you see this time.

No monumental shift John no monumental shift really in fact our our.

They are current account my health senator -- -- followed the follows these races.

All of them on a daily basis.

The Republicans currently have 242.

Seats.

We already have the Republicans up to 235.

Seats remember it takes 218.

To control the house so by our count the Republicans are already well ahead of what they actually need.

We only have fifteen real toss ups in the whole country which is kind of sad when you when you think about it that is because of redistricting.

So many of these seats are automatically democratic or automatically Republican because of the way they draw the lines.

But I tell -- I just don't see a way other than an unexpected underline unexpected Obama landslide.

For the Democrats to get a majority in the house so you think it could wind up looking pretty much like the house we have now.

Yes will will spend hundreds of millions of dollars to produce a house that looks pretty much like it does now okay that's the American way while I'm now I'm I'm sure -- those who are on the receiving end of the advertising -- gonna like all of that money spent.

Take a look at the senate there are three races that you are particularly keyed in on the first is in North Dakota tell us about.

Well North Dakota is going to be for Mitt Romney probably by about 60% to 40% somewhere in that general vicinity.

You would think that an open senate seat would automatically go to the Republican but the latest poll have the Democrat Republican essentially tied.

Our feeling is that in the end Romney's margin in North Dakota will hold the Republicans across the finish line.

He's congressman Rick -- over the Democrat.

Former attorney general Heidi -- -- But I have to admit that is one worth watching that's one where.

Very personal politics in North Dakota might might -- party ID.

But that's one currently where you currently have a democratic senator who's retiring and and that would be net -- for the Republicans if if in fact.

Burton pull it out Montana also tells -- state currently are represented by democratic senator and you think that he might be vulnerable.

Yes I think that senator Jon Tester a one term Democrat will have a very difficult time.

Winning a second term again because -- going to have a Romney margin that's very substantial.

In Montana the last time -- John McCain carried.

Montana over Barack Obama but not by that much well this time I think it's going to be a pretty big margin.

For the Republican for Mitt Romney that should be enough.

To carry across the congressman Danny ray -- And the state where I got my journalism degree Missouri.

Claire McCaskill old doesn't have a Republican opponent as yet.

She doesn't as yet there are three candidates will see which one actually gets the nomination.

We would want to speculate on that but whoever gets -- nomination John.

I think it's going to have a pretty good chance once again for years ago.

You had Barack Obama coming very close just a few thousand votes from -- Missouri while not this year.

It's going to be a very substantial margin for Mitt Romney we believe in Missouri.

And that will probably carry the Republican nominee to victory in the senate contest and as you said last time could be a 5050 tie in the next senate.

It could be if Romney wins the presidency I think Republicans -- win it outright majority in the senate.

If they have president Obama's re elected the Democrats have a shot at 5149.

-- 5050.

I would give a slight edge to the Republicans in the and caring the senate but it is close it could end up 5050 with the vice president breaking the tie and I -- dial in that crystal ball try to get things a little more clear forests -- -- -- from the original early June job.

-- only candidate.

What about what you really want.

-- --

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