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We're going to talk for a few minutes about the magic number this November 270.
As in 270 electoral votes to win the presidency Mitt Romney's camp says it has a plan called the 321 strategy.
Let's get some insight on it where it stands today from former bush senior advisor Karl Rove and democratic strategist Joseph Trippi gentlemen thanks for being here.
Our let's start by taking a look at the map as it stands today the different colors of the map.
As you look at it across the country there are seven what's hope tossup states now these are based on public polls thirty day average of the public polls as of today June 11 2012 and you can see the seven states in yellow tossup -- you have -- Romney which is the pink states.
-- Romney a lean Obama which are like blue and then the red and blue Romney in red Obama in blue.
Let's start out west Carl and what you've seen in the critical states out there.
Well in the last since we last visited this two weeks ago to western states -- -- and Colorado have moved in Romney's direction Arizona's moved.
From tossup to -- Romney and Colorado has gone from lean Obama.
Two -- -- and we've seen some other changes elsewhere that we might indicate that there's a little bit of movement in the southwest.
Into the Romney towards Romney.
Joseph what about your view of the west those -- one of the things happen when you look at a thirty day average of polls is you've got small stuff in there it's keeping these states even closer than they really -- I I really don't think Arizona is.
It is really should be in the -- or in the -- category right now.
And I also think organ.
In the west is a state dead.
Is a little tighter that I I suspect actually be be more of a toss up in Arizona is so -- -- as we see more polling command.
This this maps probably gonna change a little bit become a little -- for.
For Romney in in Arizona so -- are currently stands at plus 6% for Romney use you expect that to increase and then -- -- is.
4% for President Obama but you say that possibly -- -- thinking it debts.
When you're only up by for your President Obama in -- state like Oregon and then that says they're likely to have to start putting some money and -- are -- doesn't need to lose it.
What does mean they got to go in there and remember Oregon was a battleground state 2000 and it was won by Al Gore by about 5000 votes so it has been a battleground could be -- -- program again.
-- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- The earliest one has.
Romney up by two the last two have mobbed by 97 let's -- -- -- right let's go to the midwest here -- what you're seeing there about changes in the midwest.
Well again we have three states that have changed to states towards.
Romney Ohio went from lean Obama -- toss up in this latest map.
An Iowa went from a solid Obama -- Obama -- stay with the opposite direction Wisconsin which went for him -- Which went from tossup to lean Obama.
And again apropos of Joe's comment about you know.
Iowa I think Joseph and I both agree I was closer than probably -- first folder to pull only two poll currently have 5% -- around the first full we have has.
Some time ago has.
Obama up by ten and today at the latest poll has a dead even -- tea.
This state is getting more money spent per capita by the Obama campaign on television ads than any other the battleground state.
Joseph I agree it's not it's not ten it's not even.
But it's it's probably closer than that in what and I don't -- -- in Iowa and what about Wisconsin.
-- it's it's moving towards Obama even after that.
What we saw in the recall what we saw I know the exit -- are questions about that we saw on the exit poll lot of people that they thought gave Obama the believing we see just -- -- a new -- come out there that shows Obama leading.
I've I've never thought it was content was gonna end up being an actual swing state I know Carl and I disagree with -- about -- he thinks it's in play.
We'll see but -- the early indications are Obama still has believe there -- this is a second quandary about these polls because the polls show I agree.
Assuming that there is a seven point in the exit polls a seven point margin for Obama but Obama is under 50%.
In a state where you know -- had not had much of an effort and it's the campaign I think -- a long way to go there.
I think it is going to be a a battleground state but.
I'd have to give the edge today to Obama but I'd have to say he's running for a guy won a state.
And fourteen points to be up by an average of four is not a good sign quickly eastern seaboard.
Don't see a lot of change but obviously Virginia is the big stay -- -- is -- Yeah and and look again not much change there you look at all the eastern states and most of the changes can be measured in a pointer to witness Virginia for example in which the change was.
In Obama's direction -- one point you know interesting when North Carolina Democrats are gonna have the convention there but.
I just don't I think -- talked about this my gut says it's not gonna this is gonna go to Romney.
Well we'll see so usually it does mean when you look at the 321 strategy Indiana North Carolina and Virginia.
That it could could come down to Virginia still.
And that it's gotten a little but gotten just gotten a little bit more win to Obama right now it's right now three percentage points separating.
A civil -- -- back on June 11 to Florida and Ohio are modest one meaning Obama and lead by one and tied and Florida.
And then there are plenty of other ones to fill -- the dance card if if Romney's able to pull off the three in the two part of it he's he's looking good and Colorado I was up for grabs a new poll in Michigan the latest poll Michigan one point -- -- there -- lots of places.
That this contest is going to be of Leo it shifts week -- week so have you guys back to look at the map every couple weeks thank you gentlemen -- they'll break -- tonight so we can.
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