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AZ voters choosing replacement for Gabrielle Giffords

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    How do polls look in state?

  • Duration 3:37
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Except maybe in Arizona where it's going to play out tomorrow when we see the results of the polls today.

Voters there are choosing a replacement for former congresswoman Gabrielle Giffords she resigned in January to continue her recovery from that gunshot wound to the head.

The special election pits Democrat Ron barber Giffords former aide.

Against Republican Jesse Kelly.

Some analysts say this race could tell us a lot about how President Obama will fair with independent voters come November.

-- and -- -- is a national reporter for real clear politics and joins us now.

So Jesse Kelly actually ran against -- -- -- Giffords last time around came within a few thousand votes.

Of defeating her obviously she -- how does it look this time Aaron.

Well a recent poll shows that -- Ron barber the Democrat is actually beating Jesse Kelly now by about twelve points.

And part of that is based up the -- -- that there is forget real Giffords and her staff so it looks like a Democrat is gonna come out of Victor tonight.

I and into it won't -- at -- about this -- I don't think because we wouldn't expect that.

Democrats will outperform Republicans by twelve points let's say this fall in Arizona and Ron -- Her her aide who is running to replace her was even wounded in the attack on her he was there at the shopping center that David she was shot and he himself.

Was graze in the -- viable.

That's exactly right and and that's to the point that good will still remains for not only get real difference but also her staff and Ron barber himself so.

As this campaign moves forward we we see that there's just a lot of -- well in the district for that whole team and it looks like they're headed for a victory tomorrow but.

Arizona this fall made these swing state at this time that the Obama campaign is not spending very much money they're they're not advertising there however what they are doing is registering voters which is something.

That they did not do in Arizona and 2008 so they're trying to make it more competitive and trying to get the Romney campaign to spend some money in Arizona we have yet to see if that's.

Going to go any one week -- today Republicans were energized when the Wisconsin recall failed to turn Scott Walker out of office.

So if Ron barber wins in Arizona and the polls seem to suggest that he might.

Retain that seat for the Democrats are Democrats going to be energized in the same way.

But they will to some degree but it's a different case that this is a very special case and while they will be energized and maybe that would spark Democrats to spend more money in Arizona it won't pack the same punch let's say as the Wisconsin recall election did for Republicans it's almost eight.

Preview for November because whoever wins this seat today.

Is only going to serve out the remainder of her term which is five months and then in November we do it all over again.

That's right we deal but under this this -- election.

We haven't had redistricting take effect that would be the case though this -- that new district will be drying.

And it is supposed to be -- more democratic district once those lines are re drawn and that that takes effect this fall.

The so whoever wins the seat today is if say Ron -- wins it today he has a better shot probably next time around first of all because of the power of incumbency.

But also because of the redistricting giving him more democratic residents in that district.

That's absolutely right he does all right we will continue to watch what happens in Arizona where Gabriel Giffords seat is up today.

In that special election after her resignation.

-- -- -- from real clear politics -- thank you.

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