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-- -- -- -- -- -- Our each week at foxnews.com.
Live where we go -- -- the sound -- we dig deeper into the national security issues of the day.
I -- Mike brown and today death conferees find this so that the united states army on the eve of its 237.
Birthday.
We'll also take a look at Egypt in advance of this weekend's presidential.
Runoff election and we're gonna talk about the intelligence -- terrorism sanctions against Iran and Syria.
And first though we've got the former ambassador.
You guys as ambassador to Egypt and India Frank Wisner and someone who is intimately familiar with not just what's going on in Egypt but all the players he knows them he's.
-- Egypt throughout the last probably forty years of your career fifty years of your career.
As -- -- think -- have -- of who's the one guy who can explain to us what's going out of -- now and what's gonna happen.
Well -- Democrat -- -- that's a great pleasure to be with you.
Egypt is gone through eighteen months nearly eighteen months of -- really traumatic experience it's been revolutionary.
Since the fall of Mubarak.
The army took control.
And the army's been trying to work a way to get out of office turn the government over into a political successor.
Now they go -- about this they've aimed to get parliamentary elections.
There -- no putting into place a presidential election.
A constitutional.
Be written to the test is and isn't written yet -- that -- have a constitution that they've inherited an updated slightly.
But the new constitution for the new Egypt has not been written.
This weekend as you rightly point out the president will be elected this is the second round of the two round race.
A parliament -- already been elected once the president's -- office the army then we'll step back.
The president will call on the parliament to produce a majority government and Egypt -- move on into the future.
That's the -- but it's very and I -- pretty good.
I found stable and a nice transition but I'm servers are behind -- saying well yes indeed and as we've all seen over these months has been a lot of disruption now.
That some loss of life but it's hard if you think about it -- Egypt has been basically very stable.
It's going through -- three elections.
Of huge importance.
Following rules that have been written quite hastily but live by the rules of the rule toward during this period.
Egypt's kept her stability and kept moving forward.
So no we're at the -- -- mall where at the moment in which everything comes together.
And the election this weekend for the president will probably be the most important.
Single moment that will decide the public image of the new egyptians.
All right now with whether -- your candidates.
And the want is a -- from the Islamic brotherhood part of the Egyptian political spectrum coming out there -- -- hand -- Successor to the governments that have happened before.
For how do we have -- in our -- I don't think I put it quite that way you did the first absolutely.
Mohammed bush -- the Kennedy -- the Muslim Brothers.
The oldest of modern Egyptian political parties founded in the 1928.
Often illegal often clan destined.
Comes back to life with.
Huge amount of effect after the revolution began in -- square.
The best organized political force in the country.
And on the other hand the second.
Runner up the runner up in the first round of the presidential election amendment that you -- former air force general.
Who is put together a coalition he was prime minister during the Mubarak years he has put together a coalition.
Secular.
People who supported secular state.
The Christians.
Some of the radical Muslim elements the seller -- -- a loosely built coalition that gave him.
Nearly the same number of votes in the first round as opposed to who -- -- It's impossible to say -- -- good first step then takes place tomorrow okay to -- the supreme court of Egypt has to judge.
Whether the fact that which you fear.
The former prime minister served in a previous government whether he actually can stand for the election.
If the Supreme Court tomorrow should rule that you -- it does not meet the terms of the -- then.
Who else who knows but it could be the egyptians -- to take a step back.
And -- run the first round of the presidential election and that's obviously.
Rather complicated.
Okay -- some people have said that -- Egyptian brotherhood.
Is -- historically has been anti Israel has been.
-- an organization wanted to set up -- -- religious or reinstate others have said look this is the new Muslim Brotherhood don't worry about it.
So what should we be concerned if the Muslim Brotherhood candidate wins because of Muslim Brotherhood controls for parliament.
As you pointed out for the previous elections.
Well in the end it's going to be the Egyptian people who.
Will decide this.
And the thing we can be confident is that the elections will be largely free and fair they will finally for the first time in the history of their country.
Pick -- president.
Freely fairly and on their own nobody from the -- -- really significant when you.
-- -- thousands of years they've been governed by pharaohs and kings and generals notably -- -- that the first time there will be a real presidential election.
In the Arab world.
About that -- economic crisis that Israel if that Egypt is going to face from foreign investments down which privilege of getting their money out.
And tourism -- is pretty nice person you're just in nature.
How would you -- -- Egypt faces two problems we'd recognize them the first problem is.
The budget.
-- out of money they have huge state expenditures.
They're no there's no money coming in from the outside you pointed to tourism worker remittances.
All the normal flows that sustain.
Second they've got to get growth going.
Which means they have to loosen up this economy.
Create law and order attract investment again.
Make certain that there incentives for investors to resume the work that had investors -- really started before 2000 dead.
So both imperatives will come upon a new government whichever government that is and whoever is the president.
But it's going to be very very tough.
And Egypt is going to have to Leno to the world that look for a lot of sympathy support.
And some financial assistance here will be one of the major disciplines.
That any new government whether it be.
The Muslim Brothers or however it's constituted.
We'll have to face and that is living in peace with the region.
Leaving by principles that all of us who would like to be friends of -- can generally support.
You can't -- up.
Acceptable codes of women's rights and democratic practice and still expect the world to be there to be a friend to you.
So I think those disciplines will help give you some indication -- -- -- -- Okay now why they badges of this format as opposed to regular television is that we have viewers.
Were on their computers and are sending us questions so -- got a question to ask you from one of our viewers.
Trevor is Hussein.
He says that I should ask you what are the terms of the new president is having it be like the United States four -- -- to near term how long when -- via conference.
The new president.
Well subject obviously there's going to be a new constitution written.
Six year terms have been they have that in the past for -- -- presidents.
Okay so Trevor is get your answer.
Now aren't I can't watch it go without now talking about Syria we've all been watching a war.
At what's happened in Syria the Russians.
-- you have indicated -- -- we believe that the Russians are going to be sending helicopters.
To the Syrians that will help the Syrian military and -- killing at -- Syrian people.
Some have called for US military involvement other people -- -- including your own boss mile bus Henry Kissinger.
Who said there really isn't a military option there.
What are the prospects for Syria.
Syria is tragically sliding day by day deeper deeper -- a civil war.
But that said it would be a grave mistake.
On the part of the United States to be involved militarily.
Either directly involved to opening humanitarian.
Corridors.
And trying to enforce a presence.
Syria will be a military.
Not to crack if you will unlike anything we've seen in the -- -- Harder than Olivia Carter that are harder and I have to -- it just this is not the place to go with the -- the most compelling reason.
Is no one knows what would come next there is no coherent to organize.
Syrian opposition that can.
Easily move in and take the place of the existing.
Bashar Assad regime the Baath regime that's ruled Syria.
Without a clear path forward it's extraordinarily.
Dangerous just to get involved in a war with no outcome in mind -- So I would strongly hope we don't do that -- apps I don't wanna hear it could happen could you go in and I got there there there are clearly a number of options we.
Have to use our -- We have to work with those in the region who want a different outcome with our friends the saudis and the Turks.
We have to accept the fact.
That Syria is not ours to dispose of its Assyrian and it -- But Syria's other friends Russia's -- series long term friend and military supplier the Iranians are involved.
You're going to have to aim for an agreement.
In the region that has some degree of consensus.
And the best option that you could pursue is to try to work toward a gradual replacement -- this energy.
Much is along the lines of what has recently occurred in Yemen -- finally after months of negotiations led by people in the region.
Backed by people like -- on the outside the president's stepped down the vice president stepped up.
The army maintained its structure in Yemen though it's not Syria and not -- -- -- saying that.
But Yemen has begun to move forward now and beginning to get its house back in order.
One last question which is the topic of -- were negotiating with Iran or not negotiating with the some people are saying there's a military option with Iran others are saying it wouldn't be so bad if Iran got nuclear weapons and at the same time.
We have this ongoing negotiations funny thing.
Well the president is spoken for all of us and stating that -- -- -- nuclear weapon and -- nuclear armed Iran is unacceptable to all of us it's much too dangerous.
But that said how do we avoid this outcome.
You can't do it simply with military means.
We I think goal except the fact that the military strike would only have very limited in transient effect.
-- you have to do is create a package of incentives through negotiations.
And a package of deterrence is.
We started building on the deterrence is strong sanctions against Iran.
The prospect of military intervention if Iran doesn't slow down but finally the door is open to see if we can find a negotiated settlement.
Which around the outside world not just the United States.
But China Russia the United Nations all come together on a formula.
In which Iran manages.
-- a sub nuclear weapon level its nuclear future.
Well I certainly wish you were back in negotiations with the Iranians Syrians and the -- -- it does it go -- help those who have good.
They're in negotiation it's very let -- -- we'll take a while.
Well thank you so much for joining us we've been talking to ambassador Frank Wisner.
A man who I had it has been described to me as probably the greatest diplomat.
Of his generation -- and we can see why did he thank them thank you -- -- a much flattered thank you Chris take a break and come back and -- to Catherine -- about the next wave Terrence.
And it's really.
Right now -- and we seasonally.
We'd like to wish the US.
-- -- I welcome back to -- country.
Harassing you normally see in various parts of the world are certainly in Washington.
Talking about a terrorist many counterterrorism and hearings on Capitol Hill.
We got -- here today.
As -- she's going to talk to us about the intelligence list right.
What's going to.
I think I think -- fundamental point is being missed here and we spent.
The better part of this week in Washington focusing.
And that type or style of investigation right that we're gonna have right now it's being.
But by two US attorneys who come from the Justice Department and the question is whether that's really going to be sufficient and independent and not.
To find the source which may be an executive respecting.
The bottom line is that when you look at these leaks and the compromises that they had -- to.
It may well be months or years where they're -- can.
Get that kind of access for example within al-Qaeda in Yemen again Ryan and the problem there is that and this is sort of the unspoken truth is that.
You may actually see something slip through now because we don't have that kind of clearance anymore we don't have those -- in years.
On the ground and when you look at Iran.
And the reports that we were in fact part of the stocks that virus -- the -- virus was like dropping a bomb on that nuclear facility in Iran.
And it was really an act of war.
So that's what the plausible deny ability was so important that we didn't where we didn't say one -- the other was that I was about -- we -- that's right outside but now we've admitted now well now looking information is out -- suggesting that we -- a role when it.
This.
I mean there are no rules of engagement -- -- workers -- this would really allow Iran to probably effectively make the argument that this was an act of war and that they were justified in retaliating.
Against the United States so I think.
You know putting the kill list once I -- I can't imagine he's of such gravity that I'm putting it to one side but when you look at the leaks in their totality.
-- -- -- and the possibility of retaliation by Iran and then also our inability to get back inside al-Qaeda in Yemen which I think are the two that are really.
Trouble for -- the future.
Okay so you're right most people in Washington have focused on the political part was easy and focus on the you know what I'm hearing it you're like he's -- be -- damaged who did the leaking but you're saying there are other ramifications.
-- -- hardcore gathering of intelligence that are going to be -- well what you've heard from the members of the house and senate intelligence.
At committees over the last two weeks or so is that.
Nations will stop cooperating with us this has a real serious and severe impact of our national security but what is being.
It's not spoken but -- said behind closed doors and -- some people have shared with me.
Is that there is real concern that -- been so compromised.
That something -- get through in the future and I go back to al-Qaeda in Yemen this is a group.
That is the most active al-Qaeda group is very focused on the United States.
It's part of that al-Qaeda -- and where they come back to the same type of target again and again.
But we saw with the world trade -- until they're successful their focus or their obsession.
Is on the US airline industry.
There was another device more sophisticated that was intercepted by a -- who was working with -- and with the British.
But now that that is -- and that price covers law.
Won't that affect us covers phone but more importantly is that you have to anticipate in that situation that there would be a purge of any other foreigners within the organization.
Because they can't be trusted.
And then there will be a reluctance of operatives to go back into that situation and they would be accepted either because al-Qaeda -- -- On to us so the question is how long would it take us.
To re gain that ability to get.
That deeply inside the network it could take months it could take years and when you look at their cycle of attacks against the united students.
You have to expect that there will be another attempt and that into the and we may -- that one comment well that's -- we we don't have those eyes and ears on the ground anymore you can learn a lot.
From the sky through drones you learn a lot as you know from your background through telephone intercepts.
Your emails but there's never any substitute.
For the human intelligence on the ground and -- You know if what I've learned to my reporting is true we were -- really just one.
Individual away from the bomb maker himself -- the top target in that country he's the one who was behind.
The bomb on the Detroit flight on Christmas Day in 2009.
He was also the one who's behind those cargo bombs in the -- -- -- -- that's right exactly good memory and then it was also behind this latest iteration.
Of the -- he's one of the best bomb makers working today that's -- people in the US and other reasons we have not had these leaks put.
Potentially might let it -- about it they ought to get him -- what I -- from my reporting is that to get to the bomb maker Ebert you know a series.
You were always one step removed from him that was for what they call -- -- operational security.
So in this particular case our guy on the inside.
Got the bomb from another operative called -- -- -- -- Crusoe presumably thought it from the bomb makers there's always one step removed so that puts the bomb maker in the most secure position.
But we were one person away away go away from.
And -- you know he's really the target he is our number one target in the country.
Tell -- -- them out and Washington in 1970 going to be happy investigations into the CIA.
With the church committee hearings.
The result of that was that human intelligence gathering human talent spies.
From the C and we lost a generation spies because we were revealing sources and methods.
Do you think and then some people say well that's why we never saw try to coming we didn't have the spies for.
For fifteen years we lost that ability to be on the inside is -- something that would have that significance do you think.
Well I think the significance at least in the short term is that we.
Lost that visibility on the ground that we had through this double agent and the likelihood of inserting someone else quickly is very low.
And the likelihood and this is I don't base this on and on.
Facts in my own reporting but I based on the experience is it after someone is revealed he typically see occurred when I'm talking to -- is essentially a bloodletting.
Foreigners within the group because they can't be they can't be trusted.
I don't want to minimize how important the technology is.
But the difference with human intelligence is that you really are able.
To pick -- so many elements that you can't pick up as they say from 101000 feet right it's the body language.
It's.
The pattern of -- which helps you targeting these individuals.
Okay yeah -- you know one of the great -- of this format other than -- -- -- on every night.
Is -- people can they're watching on their computers are sending us questions for you guys we've got a question for you sound like Jeff I have read it.
-- and then this is not what I jeopardy but this is a question from.
Trevor who wants to now we've seen the fast and furious investigations you've been covering announced.
On Capitol Hill we've seen for an -- voters and now we have this and the attorney general has appointed to investigators.
Is there a pattern here that you see where the where the government assists our government is -- -- is being reluctant.
To look internally at problems.
Well one of the -- -- -- -- and hearing yesterday was made by if my memory is correct Lindsey Graham who said.
This administration's very good.
At trumpeting information that's good for them but is a very poor when it comes to being open about information that's embarrassing to them.
In terms of the leak investigation.
This is a pretty -- injured.
Strategy that they're using right now the appointment of two US attorneys that the twist is that typically you see the appointment of -- US attorney.
Who is -- -- -- geographically.
Different area so for example.
When they investigated the destruction of CIA tapes related to the enhanced interrogation program they have played a US attorney in Connecticut.
Because the belief was that he was based in Connecticut and therefore would not have relationships.
Or contacts with the people he would be investigating what's -- usual.
In what a treat general holder's done is that he's appointed someone from the District of Columbia.
And also Maryland.
The two districts where.
The crimes Mary they may very well taken place in my belief is that we may actually see one of these US attorneys who have been described to -- -- very straight shooters for cues themselves.
And someone else they be brought in okay violence -- topic of any or because you're here.
To talk about especially you're -- anthrax news or something new that you're doing a Friday night everybody to tune him.
What is it how we watch it and -- times.
Well this is the culmination of our teams a five month investigation to Fort Hood.
The new series it's an ongoing series here at fox called fox files this episode is called.
The enemy within.
And for the first time that you -- going to hear from the victims who were shot at Fort Hood in their own words how that day and -- You're gonna hear firsthand from investigators who have never spoken before.
And you can decide whether.
This I mean it was a tragedy of -- epic proportions.
Could have been avoided I can say that I've investigated a lot of things and after five months I had two very strong feelings about it one I felt like I want -- to week because it.
Really is a tragedy of epic proportions.
And the ripple effect is still being felt and on the other hand.
I felt so angry I just wanted to -- in my television.
Because there have been so many opportunities.
Where the shooter could have been stopped.
And he wasn't.
Because of the bureaucracy because of political correctness.
And for all of those reasons you come away from it I think you just feel.
A little bit of your heart -- sort of torn apart by and I think viewers -- tune and tune in this Friday at ten.
And again over the weekend it will feel the same thing that that I.
Got a clip of Al gonna show us I would love to create that -- You know me.
You could lose your security clearance in the army for having bad credit and be kicked out of the army put.
You can't lose your security clearance her.
Talking to a member of al-Qaeda.
Through email me -- making sense.
That the staff sergeant -- on -- he was shot on November 5 2009 at that readiness center Fort Hood.
Six times he is one of the survivors and what he's referring to there is the fact.
That the alleged shooter major Nadal -- had this email relationship.
With this radical cleric the American on -- all lock -- so he's saying.
Like what the heck is happening here I can lose my clearance for having bad credit.
But Husain who had.
A very high level security clearance did not lose it even though he was emailing with a known terrorist and part of what we -- -- explore here.
Is why was that possible.
What was it play was that the bureaucracy.
Was it political correctness and people like they can make up their own Melissa tiger right -- -- that I ride on Friday at 10 o'clock eastern and again over the weekend and yeah I can over the weekend and -- -- -- -- say this is five months of our teams really serious reporting I reported along with Bill Hemmer.
And you're going to hear from people who have never spoken before of the horror of that day and I can tell you.
Listening to these people you just want a week you cannot imagine.
The fear that they must have felt to have someone wearing the very same uniform turn that weapon on them well.
It sounds like this are riveting it's just sounds so we also -- and Friday that's great hockey eastern and then over the week that's right and this is an ongoing series now on boxing's box files so Fox News Channel box file as -- enemy within that's correct thank you so -- -- -- -- -- having me.
Okay now turn -- current talent to listen to -- and since that time.
-- in the past few weeks we've seen intensity of the violence in Syria increase a great deal and part of that reason is it appears to be an influx of weapons into the country.
US secretary of state Hillary Clinton accused the Russians are sending arms attack helicopters.
To the aside regime to use on civilians and we've seen in recent days.
The is specially made last week or so we've seen that the aside regime has been using helicopters to attack and pound.
Syrian rebel positions in large part because we're hearing that Syrian government's trying to avoid ground casualties.
When they battle with the rebels and helicopters are very effective way that appears according to the US government the Russian government is now sending.
Arms -- helicopters to the aside regime.
We're also hearing that there are weapons flowing into the rebels.
We don't know exactly where this speculation is as likely from a country like Qatar or Saudi Arabia.
Go with that helping coordination from other countries around the world maybe even the US a bit in the US strongly denied -- they're sending anything but nonlethal weapons.
To the rebel movement in Syria right now.
But all this has -- really deadly mix civilians are -- -- -- of this violence in Syria.
In these weapons are moving in and they are increasing the likelihood of -- -- long protracted war in Syria.
And also very violent war in Syria is well for many more months to come KT.
O'Connor is lining up that you have the -- like a proxy war almost where the Russians are supporting the Syrians.
Iranians -- support in the us out of the Syrian leadership.
And yet other countries in the region the saudis.
And men and NATO in the United States are at least trying to find a way to help the rebels.
Is there any aid that we are giving to the rebel forces.
There is a lot of talk about this becoming increasingly -- proxy war and you've got that exactly right essentially.
Russia is supplying aid along with Iran supplying aid to the aside regime.
The United States again is stressing that -- -- any anything other than non lethal.
Supplies for the you know -- -- is a very open ended term in Libya -- included things like body armor and helmets.
May not necessarily be for attack but certainly could be used in in you know in taking on this Syrian government.
But the US is -- that they're not sending weapons are not sending anything other than non lethal but that doesn't mean that.
-- Qatar Saudi Arabia and other gulf countries -- -- didn't rich.
People in the gulf area aren't sending -- types of armaments and supplies and weapons.
To the rebels the US military -- a US government asserted that they are supplying support ends.
Coordination on the grounds.
In in the region there are reports that -- US government is flying helicopter that helicopters but.
Planes that have satellite connections to keep Internet lines up and running so that these rebels on the ground can.
Video tape what's happening on the ground -- send those lines up.
There's -- -- and that's the type of support the United States is is giving to the rebels right now we don't really have a full picture what the US is doing.
Overall but they have stressed that they're not sending.
Actual weapons ammunition helicopters that type of thing but it certainly is a lot outside of the realm of weapons -- taken supplied to the Syrian rebels.
JDK what kind of college Jerusalem talking about the ongoing.
Dreadful civil war in -- thank you so much time I stay safe.
And if British take a break and then come back and talk about -- can't celebrate the birthday of the United States -- On this army birthday I would like to -- more than one million soldiers who serve to protect our great nation.
-- your loyalty and heroism.
And the sacrificing your family that makes me proud to serve alongside -- -- America's army.
I would also like to recognize the members of our communities.
Who selflessly dedicate their time and efforts to supporting us.
Together we are army strong.
Happy birthday army.
Rangers lead the way.
I welcome back to -- country.
Turn now to Iran that the ongoing negotiations with Iran over its nuclear weapons program.
And also the introduction of sanctions which are about to -- at the end of the month sanctions.
Against Iran's.
Energy sector and banking sector -- are joining mayors are we better talk about Iran and Michael Rubin of the American Enterprise Institute a guy who's.
Lived in Iran who studied Iran who teaches a -- all things are ran into the United States.
Special operations forces -- military so you're gonna teach us.
Michael what is the current state of the relationship and the negotiations between Iran and the western.
-- well there's a lot of optimism going into last month's talk in talks in Baghdad.
That optimism didn't pan out and that shouldn't surprise.
However diplomats -- arm in many ways.
Like compulsive gamblers they just feel that if they go one more time to the table they can win everything back and that looks to be the case.
-- how the international community is approaching Moscow but if I can just add one thing which kind of shows how the Iranians.
Have a different perspective about what's going on them -- do.
When Iranians decide it's offered negotiations in Baghdad on May 23.
The Obama administration really jumped at it they never asked why the Iranians want to Baghdad and why they want it may 23.
It was actually the thirtieth anniversary.
-- Iran's great victory over Iraq.
The liberation of -- on -- during the Iran Iraq War and Ayatollah Khamenei the Iranian supreme leader had used the occasion with the Americans as the backdrop.
In Baghdad to talk about how this would be once again another great victory for the -- running in nation.
In Iraq -- I have never heard anybody.
Referred of that but that makes perfectly good sense the symbolism of having that in Baghdad.
And on the anniversary of their their so called victory in that war.
Is a double -- meaning that everybody who in the Middle East would've understood and none of us live understood.
What things are wanna pick up on -- you've written before and I think various do we talked about how the United States conducts negotiations.
In good faith and and what we expect to get out of -- and we try to be very understanding of the other guys.
Position and point of view but you -- Iranians have a very different mindset when they negotiated.
Explain.
Well indeed that's the case that -- -- in -- times quipped that the Americans play checkers while the Iranians play.
Test but we know for a fact that the Iranians will look at.
Diplomatic negotiations not as a means to get to a solution.
But rather as a means to run down the clock the reason we know this are the words of the Iranians themselves quite recently -- -- -- -- Who was the Iranian nuclear negotiator between 2003 and 2005.
Mind you that was under the reformist president mom and -- to me gave an interview in the Iranian press in which he said.
Look Michael when -- offer to suspend uranium enrichment.
Wasn't.
Helped create peace rather it was to divide the Americans from the Iranians to avoid these sanctions that the UN.
And we use that pause to import extra centrifuges that extra technology.
Now we also know from the international atomic energy agency that it was at this point when Iranians talked about or when the American diplomats -- Europeans thought that.
The Iranians were being flexible that he run -- were actually working on a military nuclear program.
When you when you talk about the Iranians.
Amp PMPs and I -- your -- -- -- You talk about all the Iranians feel that it is fair it's -- eat it it's an ego thing as a national pride thing.
The weather there reformers or whether there are heard of -- current regime.
All Iranians feel that Iran should have access to nuclear weapons as a statement of their great power status.
So is there anything that's going to stop Iran from getting nuclear weapons if if all of these different disparate political groups who may oppose each other.
All agree on one thing which is a nuclear -- is there -- -- right.
Ball actually.
All factions of the Iranian political spectrum won't agree on this concept that the Iranians deserve.
Nuclear power technology.
They won't necessarily outright say they want nuclear weapons the only time in which any Ronnie and think tank asked.
As in a poll question do you think would you sleep safer night if the Iranians had nuclear weapons.
66% of your audience said now and the think tank -- subsequently.
Closed down but here's the rub while the Iranians will say that they want.
Nuclear power nuclear technology nuclear energy.
We have to look at not at the whole we're seeing.
But the units within the Iranian regime that would have command control and custody over any potential nuclear weapons program.
Those units are the most ideologically pure units of the revolutionary guard and that makes.
Traditional deterrence and containment it throws it out the window.
A nuclear Iran be liked what -- they do if they ever were to get nuclear weapons.
OK best case scenario is that the Iranians would feel themselves so.
Secure behind their own nuclear deterrent.
That they might lash out in other means.
For example reinvigorating the terrorism with which.
They were involved back in the 1980s and 1990s.
Likewise when we talk about -- when the -- talk about.
Closing the Strait of Hormuz right now that's rhetoric but should they have nuclear weapons that could very well be reality the real danger is.
Suppose you have an uprising in Iran where the regime is collapsing and you have this ideological unit of the Revolutionary Guards.
Having control and custody of nuclear bomb what happens if the regime knows it only has twelve hours left.
Left in a situation like that.
They might simply launch for ideological reasons knowing.
That no one's gonna retaliate against the country that already had regime change when Muammar Qaddafi lost control of Tripoli.
His forces decided to launch scud missiles.
Had their opponents just out of sheer spite.
In -- situation like that when some people Washington rest assured of the Iranian regime is in suicidal if Iran Iranian regime is dying of a heart attack anyway.
Then the logic again of deterrence goes out the window.
About the Iranian Syrian -- action.
Well we'll be running -- connection is -- got to remember that the Iranian regime is now what.
33 years old.
And traditionally it's only ally in the world it's only consistent ally has been Syria during the Iran Iraq War every Arab country supported Iraq.
And the Syrian supported Iran so with this uprising in Syria the Iranians feel that their isolation would be complete an.
And if they don't have Syria as a proxy.
They also can't support Hezbollah in the same way that they are now and so really everything is coming to a climax it's a perfect storm.
Unfortunately.
In the midst of this perfect storm.
We withdrew from Iraq which makes it easier for the Iranians to supply Syria over Lance.
Is there any way to severing that connection between Iran and Syria.
The only way to sever that connection would be if the Syrian regime fell I don't think diplomacy is going to do it certainly nothing in the past 33 years has succeeded in doing it.
-- tell me about what would happen if a military option were used against the Iranian nuclear program.
Some people have said well but only by a couple of years other people have said it would ignite.
A larger regional war that would draw the United States into it.
Some people have said look Israel could do it on its own and it would stop fairway I knew -- how would you play all that out.
Well I think most people agreed both on the fact that it would delay.
The Iranian nuclear program although there's discussion about for how long would it to -- up at the same time most people agree on the consequences.
The Iranians would lash out through terrorists means perhaps through other military means there'd be a cascade of proliferation throughout the region and so forth.
But here's the reason why I have my doubts about military action against Iran.
If you were to delay Iran's nuclear program by let's say two or three years.
What happens -- up -- in three years are we simply gonna use the US military kick the can down the road.
Because we don't have a policy to address the more fundamental problem which is that Iran's nuclear program but actually the ideology and the regime which would yield.
All right let's flash forward there's a new administration in Washington the new president turns to you and says what would you suggest.
-- okay let Iran get the bomb how do we -- -- assuming that we all agree.
And and most everyone on the political spectrum who said the one thing that's unacceptable as Iran getting nuclear weapon.
Okay this is what I would say.
Only twice before -- -- -- history have they reversed course and against a declared policy and simply backed up.
One was with release of the United States hostages back in 1981.
And the second moments ending the Iran Iraq War.
In both cases the cost -- pursuing their actions have gotten too great to bear.
After Sodom Hussein invaded Iran.
The cost of Iran's isolation was too great to bear it wasn't diplomacy that -- resulted in the release of hostages it was Iran not wanting to face isolation.
And likewise in 1988.
When Ayatollah Khomeini decided to sue for peace in the Iran Iraq War he said it's like drinking a chalice a poison.
But we have no choice if we want to continue the question for any new administration for governor Romney would be.
What policy do you have in place that would be the equivalent forcing Iran to drink a -- supporters and here we have banking sanctions a specifically against the Central Bank you have much greater industrial sanctions you can -- sanctions on the aircraft.
And at the same time.
You have military posters so Iran your serious I asked the navy admiral what would it take to convince the Iranians that we are serious about our red lines.
Ahead ahead of the next round of negotiations.
And what he responded is what we need to do is withdrawal to where our two aircraft terrorists from the Persian gulf to the Indian Ocean.
Because the Persian gulf is shallow and its narrow in the running it's constructed our aircraft terrorists with small boats but if there Indian Ocean we can strike hit them.
They can't strike at -- and that's something which we don't need -- publicized but every -- -- in general and all the advisors around the supreme leader would take notice solved instantly.
-- well thank you very much has a very interesting take of the whole situation.
I've got to tell you that -- you're -- whole point about being compulsive gamblers and diplomacy.
I'm gonna remember that one think hey thanks so they take American Enterprise Institute Michael Rubin thank you so much for joining us thank you.
British take a break now and come back and celebrate another birthday party we're gonna celebrate the birthday -- the 37 birthday.
The the United States.
Welcome back to death country now -- -- you don't like to celebrate your birthdays anymore because.
You know certain part I mean after -- just kind of goes downhill but if you're 237.
You might as well have a good time right because you're not get any younger and another year or two or doesn't make a whole lot of older.
So we're gonna celebrate the United States army's 230.
-- -- -- -- Today we have two gentlemen joining us we have sergeant first class Terry Hayward from the tenth mountain division investors sent me.
And we have captain Juan Ramos also from the tenth mountain now more -- York celebrating tell me about the army's birthday party.
Well all we're very excited to be in New York City.
Like you said mentioned -- -- here to celebrate the jets weren't -- seventh birthday.
And on his birthday and we've taken this opportunity to meet with a lot of the a community.
And a lot of the leadership from New York City and some hospitals senator Graham and we're just re connecting the military with New York City.
So it's that we were very happy to be here.
It's it's incredible the support.
-- Did you feel that -- Julia Camden New York -- Americans have a very different attitude I think after September 11.
About the military and -- may have had in the 1960.
And -- we'll see a lot of appreciation and me which soldiers and that's it's a bigger isn't always -- this is the 237.
Birthday.
But is that just happening in New York it's happening all over the world is the army doing -- -- throughout the country throughout the world.
Sergeant what do you think America really runs the army said you happen.
There are.
And installation that I having such type event but since we had tent mountain from New York.
You decide to come -- into the city and show our appreciation and some thank -- and let them enjoy I was birthday with the us.
So we're going around having birthday parties everywhere -- cutting McKay.
-- being -- weird you know be giving.
The people that we actually speak with us -- souvenirs.
Talks on that note that we appreciate everything they've done to support that they -- and that's why we -- Okay and out.
I did in Afghanistan and there are a lot of mountains of Afghanistan yes yes and you just felt come back from Afghanistan.
At the tenth mountain division do you do mountain things what are you doing here.
Deployed.
-- -- -- -- -- While.
There's a lot of there's a lot of that -- -- events that patrols that have been and they're all mission oriented related.
They all have different missions but.
We do afternoon.
And three -- in there.
Yeah so these are your specific deployment will be areas that are around and serious none has not necessarily make it puts you around the nation somewhere.
Yes that potentially as we recently returned from -- southern Afghanistan.
In the march.
Which was a combined.
Region had some some mountains and some flat areas.
Right now you're here celebrating this is really great I'm sure your families are really happy to have you.
-- -- how long were you in Afghanistan.
We different -- and we deployed as a unit right out as individual log panties or anything as a unit -- as a unit and where did you go to Afghanistan.
-- let Afghanistan in the book -- report.
And where and where did you go to Afghanistan we -- we program.
In March saying there there are either you hold -- -- twelve months have a -- -- -- -- yes and was this your first deployment to Afghanistan.
It was my first.
It was my first of Afghanistan this is my first deployment to Afghanistan Obama third third plus probable.
OK so then presumably you're deployed in Iraq before that -- the tenth mountain division man.
Or where were you deployed before was -- indeed there was the Southwest Asia.
For two years and then he Houston to relocated to Fort Drum new York and deploy to Afghanistan to -- Right and so -- people leave deployed the man -- deployed with with this.
The -- and the visions I remember has been to Afghanistan before yes yes that you weren't there you weren't with the navigation that they have deployed previously several years.
-- to -- division has been to put it between Afghanistan Iraq -- believed when he when he different times.
Throughout you know it's -- so what is different times I that's.
Right and it's all of Ford brigades from division.
-- -- rotating so different rotation.
-- there was good that we can't fight a war that's you guys send in that seems like a very high -- very high up tempo a lot of deployments and spotty.
In ten years to have planning to form.
That's -- -- tenth mountain is one and most employable divisions and states.
-- -- -- I'm really I don't know that well -- -- to the soldier the training.
Very specialized.
Skills that -- Highly valuable and whether you know you go to record can't stand -- Really good soldiers and equipment.
That's our -- upstate new York and make things easier than those winters.
Yes yeah even in the mountains and the -- and -- Cruz mountains of Afghanistan.
Head's -- about the special challenges that you face are you tell me a little bit about yourself personal area where you primary.
I'll offer my Florida.
Married.
My beautiful wife from Rochester new York and -- fish out that's your.
Then I lose yeah I can't -- no it let's go to the net but.
If -- and -- it actually effect on the relief from the South Bronx new York -- level I guess this moment I'm not married I have my daughter July Johnson.
Who lives here it Leander Texas he's sixteen.
Okay so you're not married and saying don't worry you're gonna a lot of emails from them yet -- -- they're going to elect a pretty good.
It's such a special challenge is that you you face your dad your daughters.
And in another part of the country that's hard enough yes and then when you go overseas for twelve months -- what challenges do you face when we come.
-- -- -- Well the -- faced long wanted.
It's not -- like special holidays sure my daughter's.
Who know certain type -- that she would like to -- at ten.
But I can't so we -- -- and communicate with that we -- other talk about how.
-- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- Yes you you can they have phones -- we have MW arson.
Well that now more and more where more morale we have fair.
Right victories -- a relaxed about it right is that the country club president and -- and and that equates to a small -- dead live you know I've been the end of us Republican theaters just stand and why he continues right men and somewhat anyway you can -- -- and I thought I would -- -- best in.
You know having so there's really cute -- we understand it.
Families they they -- the by the greatest burden.
In that -- they have to continue.
It's.
-- -- families their homes and longer it is like an announcement.
No she's done that I do you live in an area where massively out of famines -- Yes we stadium.
Progress in Fort -- area right so -- we have different programs like the family readiness group -- as an exceptional firmware.
Spouses.
They they they basically.
They help each other and guiding leadership and that kind of stuff when they need help -- -- -- you didn't ask about career -- -- wearing yes what did you.
My -- -- a couple of Brothers that was actually in the military and they pay state and for companies -- got out my father.
Rest in peace he.
Was in the navy for eight years he got us it was -- like -- You now that is emanating -- could hear her illness -- -- -- -- -- none of my family had been in the military.
I'm not second generation.
In the crowd and and so in other countries the military is different but here it's.
-- -- -- is bound to its menu country basically that was really isn't.
Besides patriotic duty to attendance -- You immigrated to your family -- -- to and you.
Good some bad about -- -- your family.
As a long tradition yes it is okay so waiter for the birthday -- -- -- -- -- now you're -- got no idea if I had.
Yes yes -- and visit a couple of restaurants.
Have dinner with the locals.
And -- yeah.
-- expected tomorrow will be in Times Square.
There's a big celebration -- Bryant Park -- there's a Kate cutting.
The Fort Hamilton I think it's you know no doubt in Manhattan and Manhattan and -- times where -- I'll -- are you guys I think -- encouraged community go out and you know celebrate with the army and now.
And the -- and there's there's there's they -- happy birthday and I want.
Well thank you very much both of you for your service and particularly.
For your service and time of war -- -- and we really appreciate the the support we get in the community and we really feel the appreciation it's it's -- rap classic thank you think you -- -- about.
Okay well -- -- for -- country this week.
And you join us for a worldwide tour we've been to Afghanistan we've been to Iraq we've been to Syria we've been all around the world talking about the crisis.
That face us in today's and tomorrow's headlines a little have a little bit if I'm celebrating the united states army.
For the next -- crises are gonna continue but you know what concern era trying to figure amount.
And after that you're here again for another seven days because take -- next week up.
My little list is graduating from college and getting off the McFarland family -- In exceed two weeks.
America's army has sort of the constitution.
And proven itself as a good -- to be American and global communities.
What we're not gonna changes.
Bedrock principles.
-- -- -- More than 200 years.
The country.
Those -- things that I believe.
What can people who during -- mirror looking -- happens -- -- -- part of it clearly.
Coming out of two theaters of war.
After -- return to.
Creating bedrock.
Preparing for a hybrid drive so that.
Whenever the challenges.
In the ways ahead may have bring to us -- as we always have been in the greatest -- of course the world was never know.
To meet the needs of the nation.
A -- army must be ready to date and -- for tomorrow.
Not just abroad but also would hold.
Ensuring we are meeting the needs of the American people.
-- and serving as good stewards of our nation's resources.
By investing in energy and innovation.
Normal level walk away.
From its basic -- which is our moral and ethical values.
Our professional -- Which is based on the bedrock of trust trust -- -- -- Trust between soldiers and leaders -- -- trust between.
But some things will -- -- could get leaner.
More -- more -- A more integrated synchronized into the joint force.
And we'll continue to develop capabilities that allows us to respond.
To complex garments that we face in the.
I am a professional soldiers.
I'll always accomplished my mission and take care my soldiers -- wolf always.
Tactically and technically proficient out there over I -- the strength of our army.
Well the -- more than a job it's a profession.
And so the strength of our army is sold at the end of the day you've got to have people for committed enough character.
And also have confidence.
That become soldiers to do with the nation it -- to do so it out.
That person who was a soldier army would not be strong -- we're about fifty.
