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Battleground Friday: New Mexico

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    Chris Stirewalt and Michael Coleman discuss the battleground state of New Mexico.

  • Duration 8:14
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That was President Obama campaigning.

In -- -- tomorrow New Mexico.

Back in March 121.

And why was he there.

Well it may be that with five electoral votes New Mexico is key to president Obama's western strategy.

As he looks replicate his success in -- mountain west.

In 2012.

This is power play welcome back and -- my good fortune to introduce you now to Michael Coleman he is the Washington bureau chief.

For the Albuquerque journal Michael welcome thanks thanks for him.

Okay so we snuck in yesterday.

Or the other day to the big board.

We -- Bill -- favorite -- we got to the big board and we looked at how New Mexico is gonna vote so to -- -- discussion let's take a look at that what I had to set.

Back to another battleground Friday on power play.

As we break down that does in battleground states that in all likelihood are gonna get to decide who gets sworn into office on January 20 2013 Barack Obama for a second term Republican Mitt Romney and we're looking at how these states are gonna vote again this week -- and and get that touch here on the big board now we've already done North Carolina and Michigan that's a tough state for the blue team for President Obama North Carolina tough for the red team in Michigan.

As they try to overcome a long voter history.

But let's go out west now shall we.

And let's look at the states that are central one of the states that are central to president Obama's reelection strategy that's New Mexico right here because New Mexico Colorado and Nevada.

Are the three states that are the linchpin to President Obama strategy because let's take a look.

It 2008.

So you see these three Blue States in 2008.

Those states are not that many electoral -- but -- enough he believes to offset states that he may lose back east.

That includes North Carolina that we already talked about.

In Virginia there's enough out there to keep him in business if that goes that's why New Mexico even though it only has.

Five electoral votes it still matters a great deal for team Obama.

It's insurance so here's what happened in 2008.

Bit.

That's a big that's a big win especially when you compare it to 2004.

And a small win for George W.

Bush.

Al Gore won here in 2000.

The narrowest of margins imaginable just really a handful of votes but we -- here in 2004 this is sort of what we expected to -- sort of what you expect to see.

-- but when we look at 2008.

And we see this changing margin.

It's easy to explain why.

And here's why.

Is that.

Do you have this quarter of the state in if you want to talk about the population of New Mexico and how it works most the overwhelming majority of the population is here in Albuquerque and Santa Fe in this metropolitan area.

Now the rest of the state has a tremendous amount.

Native Americans has a tremendous amount of Hispanic population also had and that's very good for Barack Obama.

But it also has a pretty considerable Mormon population that's good for Mitt Romney and people in the country generally vote Republican people in the city generally vote Democrat so when you have this broad expanse -- rural area -- -- we can expect to hold his -- out there.

But the battle of course comes down here and sure Albuquerque insurers say in effect are very likely to go for Barack Obama but.

And this is the big but in this is where everything hangs for Mitt Romney credit here and -- Leo -- No we don't look at -- -- anyone a look at Santa volcanic which is home to Bernal Leo now.

The deal is this while you get out into this part of -- -- canning you're out.

You're in the country your your back out.

Mountain desert and all of that good stuff but down here there's a -- or that connects Albuquerque down here to -- effect this is a suburban -- and it's the only part of the state.

That looks like what Mitt Romney likes to do.

Which is score well with moderate suburban voters that's the key in almost every state for him.

But certainly in New Mexico -- places all the importance on same -- county.

In the community of -- Leo that's in there because while he can expect.

To do okay down here and may be okay over here in Santa -- Albuquerque it's in effect.

For goodness sakes if he wants to win he's got to find a way to run up the -- here with these same kind of suburban voters that -- that you see you -- the rest of the country.

So -- election night.

Be very easy for you to tell what's gonna happen in New Mexico just watch Sandoval county.

You'll know the answer before anybody else thanks for -- we'll see in a second.

And that -- I know really what he was done a lot of stuff about I think that's.

My woman that's what interstate is that that court where -- that is the fun and I do yeah.

-- -- -- so that's why there is the battleground right.

Absolutely there's -- there's a huge population.

Concentration and that part of the -- but it what do you didn't -- your analysis I think is worthless if you -- -- -- southern New Mexico you know Roswell Carlsbad -- very conservative party's -- and you look at you know -- bush in 2004 for example -- -- agreed to -- a lot of his support.

We have a very popular conservative congressman Steve -- down enough on -- very conservative he is very conservative and you know he'll probably brings people and polls and I'm I'm sure that you know if Mitt Romney spent some time -- in Mexico going to be down there and trying to get those southern New Mexico -- the ranchers and he said more rural -- libertarians and yeah being a nice -- not huge fans of the federal.

Government down there.

And that you have today.

News relates to your state of politics there's the president comes out.

And is today announcing a change -- immigration and deportation policies as they're now going to exempt younger.

Illegal immigrants from his from deportation and I'm sure that the president is thinking about Hispanic voters in Nevada Colorado but also -- -- Yeah of course that this huge and I know New Mexico is the largest.

-- respect -- -- -- -- the united states of any state.

So every presidential campaign is always focus on Hispanic -- -- Mexico it's not a monolithic vote necessarily don't always vote the same way.

But I would imagine a policy like that is gonna resonate well with our Hispanic and the most is that -- -- Democrat.

And so that they know that can only help them -- And that but the question of course is.

How will it play with those moderates on that point five or or there's folks that they may not like it is not just a question like this that is not a monolithic vote in the past boosted them very well with Hispanics -- in Mexico we have a very popular Hispanic governor Susana and I like to -- exercise outside my tennis.

The pistol -- former prosecutor right she's and she's a she's a real tough cookie.

She is and that's his father and stay in Mitt Romney just named her to be co chair of his national -- steering committee.

So you know he didn't he's doing the -- you look at the numbers and -- -- -- that maybe he can she can help him.

Drum up some enthusiasm among Hispanics and -- is -- different now so what's the polling says there's -- -- early polling in New Mexico we have had a lot -- -- pulling these -- national polls it's anywhere from Obama's leading anywhere from seven.

T 1516%.

Right political -- it is very -- is -- people -- in Mexico off as a battleground.

I think -- little bit -- and I think it's maybe it's somewhat of -- diminished battleground like you were seniors and shown in every electoral vote should count and a close race.

And Republican president hasn't done well here in the past since I don't you guys just -- -- -- you've got a hot senate race we're gonna go on so they're right yes Heather Wilson former congresswoman who served five terms the Republican.

And current congressman Leonard Martin Heinrich is running and there's going to be a ton of money in a ton of effort poured into that race.

So that also have reverberations throughout camp.

Any Smart okay Michael thank you very much -- a good time.

For us today -- we have to go away for the weekend we we we have to say good -- so we should say that -- -- we should all have a great weekend we'll see data from any Brothers but.

We can tell you this on the hunt with Jonathan Hunt is waiting for you on the other side.

And now as we like to do every day we want to leave you with the word from our friend -- Putting he's a man who said the greatest geopolitical catastrophe of the twentieth century was.

Not the Holocaust the Second World War who -- the -- The collapse of the Soviet Union his ideas to rebuild -- strength.

And Syria is a part of -- things in strategic terms and he is not susceptible.

To that kind of chiding him -- him believing that you get out of the state.

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