Iran nuke program talks resume in Moscow
Will any progress be made?
- Duration 6:19
- Date Jun 18, 2012
Will any progress be made?
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-- talks between world powers in Iran are under way in Moscow and the two sides are trying to and a decade long standoff.
Over Tehran's nuclear program and avoid a possibility a possibility that we could see -- in the Middle East because of this issue -- is the executive director.
The foundation for defense of democracies in -- and -- as president of the plowshares fund and author of bomb scare in the history and future.
I've nuclear weapons so gentlemen a lot of questions about whether or not progress can be made in any way.
I with the second round of talks mark what would progress look like.
Well John I think progress would look like -- -- and suspending all of its domestic and -- coming clean on its nuclear weapons activities.
And committing to honor the nonproliferation treaty.
I think progress would look like an assurance that Iran is not gonna develop nuclear weapons and I think we're a long way from progress.
Mark add it Joseph what do you think about that would you define progress -- they might.
Well that is definitely the and state but we are a long way from there this negotiating process is gonna take months.
We haven't had sustained negotiations with Iran since 2005.
Tremendous mistrust on both sides so what we're looking for in Moscow -- incremental steps.
Can we get a framework for in a regional agreement.
To stop Iran enriching to 20% are very high level.
It's a very close to bomb grade.
And in exchange in the US offer Enron something in return perhaps some relief from some of the new sanctions is set to go -- effect July 1.
And -- -- those sanctions -- well exports also on the -- -- -- those sanctions really get tougher Joseph do you think the United States should offer.
-- it taking their foot off the accelerator as far as sanctions go is that something we should consider.
I think that's I think we're gonna have to do that Iran is looking for two things one they want to keep their nuclear program going.
And they want to get their economy we started.
It's increasingly looking like they can't do both.
Their economy is in shambles.
Oil exports have dropped 40% inflation is up 40%.
Unemployment is going to record highs so they're looking for some will leave something they can go back -- -- -- people they got a victory.
We can't end the sanctions for what Iran is offering right now which is just initial steps.
But we could say okay we'll delay some of the sanctions to see if Iran is -- and implement whatever deal comes out of Moscow.
-- -- -- suggests is the opposite though that when you see is sanctions starting at work that's when you press harder on the accelerator what are your thoughts.
Well exactly Jenna named after you know thirty years of animosity with Iran we're not gonna build trust and confidence we hate the regime they -- -- We finally have leverage -- is let's ratchet up the pressure that's put a comment made a fundamental choice between a nuclear weapon in the survival of his regime.
Let's ratchet up the sanctions on the sanctions -- between zero and ten right now.
We perhaps -- six we've got to go to ten north Europe -- a Spinal Tap this one's got to go to eleven.
We've really got to ratchet up the pressure and we've got to do you do common hey watch out we -- to -- -- in the 1980s when he'd have to drink the so called poison chalice.
Because he -- the United States is prepared to attack Iraq attacked -- And we've got to make it very clear that we will declare economic war on this regime we will bring its economy to its knees.
And if that doesn't work we will bomb Iran's nuclear facilities.
That is the message we got -- -- this whole notion of confidence building measures and a process an incremental concessions.
I think is a delusion.
But it's showing you -- -- disagree with that some would say we're actually already act economic war would be over and it -- -- what do you think the effect could be.
To the scenario that mark lays out what's he says no -- these sanctions up to an eleven on -- one to ten scale.
Sanctions never get -- the -- you want all by themselves is never -- never worked with any country has ever been under sanctions.
Sanctions are -- tool their leverage so you wanna get the country to move in this direction but in order to get the deal you've got to show that if they do what you want.
You will relieve some of that pressure so that's that that's the judgment that the diplomats have to make right now with the rheostat when do you go increase it -- you decrease it.
I think what you're seeing now in in Moscow is that we still pressing forward pressing forward if you -- gives us a step.
-- willing to take a step back but not take a -- Yeah my -- interesting -- making a point about negotiations if these -- negotiations.
An honest and -- negotiations.
Something where one site offers something in another site offers another so we're not coming to the table with anything at this point as far as offering and some relief.
-- are we really not negotiating with them like we say we.
Well -- it's very clear what Iran's obligations -- -- under multiple UN Security Council resolutions IAEA reports.
It's very clear their audience have to do if they satisfy all of of their obligations that I think we offer concessions but I think it is a delusion to believe that we can calibrate sanctions.
Remember sanctions are held together by fear.
It's the fear of US penalties if we start to offer premature sanctions -- -- And all countries and companies will start to act in their self interest and their -- -- self interest and the whole sanctions regime will unravel.
And I think negotiators in the Obama administration understand that and that is why.
The real important sanctions oil market sanctions in the financial sanctions should only be given at the end when Iran has satisfied.
All its obligations under the nonproliferation treaty at the end prematurely.
At the Ngo and you mentioned Thailand Joseph I'm gonna give you the -- the last thought here we know what kind of timeline are we on if the end is the banking -- oil sanctions.
Then -- look -- what is the timeline as far as seeing any sort of change in Iran.
And -- what is a timeline potentially for a bigger conflict.
Well here's two pieces of good news one year running regime is hugely unpopular.
And I think it's only a matter of time before the people of Iran do -- only they can do.
An overthrow that regime second although the nuclear program is going forward it's -- -- forward very slowly.
Iran is at least a year -- perhaps three years away from being able to make a nuclear device that would work.
The time is actually on our side as months go on the sanctions are only gonna get worse the pressure only increases.
We have to know when to use that lever and when to get what we really want which is an end.
To Iran enriching with -- Iranian to 20%.
If we can get fat that's a real game we should be willing to give something forced -- mark great discussion a big topic really for have you -- back.