Can Egypt transition to a representative democracy?
Lt. Col. Tony Shaffer on whether Egypt's military will give up power
- Duration 7:52
- Date Jun 18, 2012
Lt. Col. Tony Shaffer on whether Egypt's military will give up power
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-- thank you it looks as though it's -- real little bit messy but I guess democracy is messy and we have to let it play out.
Absolutely I think to follow on to some of the comments that the candidate mr.
-- is actually western -- actually to attend -- school has stakes are understand it.
But the question becomes what where does that really -- I think what you're gonna see over the next couple weeks as a lot of horse trading behind the scenes -- -- were reluctant.
To give up and let's remember despite whatever you feel whatever we feel about.
The Egyptian revolution the military.
Really was the glue that held that society together that's why you didn't see the descend into chaos.
-- should we saw on Libya because there was still a structure there and they say that country from a fate as bad as Libya with that said though what's next.
And I think we have to be concerned about the fact that the Muslim Brotherhood.
-- often say one thing publicly do something else behind the scenes and this is where the military I think rightfully so is trying to establish yourself with a countervailing force.
To make sure that things don't go too far off the rails which I think is really never -- interest at this point -- so.
From our point of view it it we should not necessarily be overtly criticizing the military people wanting to hold almost -- some -- from our point of view.
That may be the best thing.
-- -- to court to two.
Due to different -- -- different way off all presents are created equal some present to create more equal and others and so the question becomes what do they actually give him in a way of power.
-- let's remember what happened in Pakistan another good example of the country where it had a difficult transition to democracy the military step back in a couple different times take charge.
When -- person Musharraf.
Who was really came to power.
Through a coup -- -- Left that and and and let other elections happened were prisons -- -- ended up in charge that was a very difficult process as well one which was necessary and I think we're seeing the same thing here.
The one leverage -- what we do have which were everybody's aware of and was critical.
Critically reviewed by congress recently that we provide a lot of money in the Egyptian military that's an investment and the future of that region.
And one of the things we have to actually demand for money.
Is the continuation of the Arab Israeli peace process and the current treaty between the egyptians and and -- Israelis which frankly.
Has been teetering based on the fact that there have been attacks from Egypt.
Within the past few months against.
Do you think there's any chance.
They did all the chances are good.
That this sort of that that does the peace will prevail in terms of Israel.
If a Muslim Brotherhood candidate is the president of Egypt.
I guess the good guy -- -- Specter that the horse trading we don't save but really know what's going on right now I think it really will be determined.
About how much -- the Muslim Brotherhood actually does gain control and just let you know I mean.
There is an office within our own government the director and best of national intelligence -- Jim clapper.
Actually establish an office took to work with the Muslim Brotherhood so this administration for better -- not gonna criticize them just saying this is what I know we have establish an outreach to the Muslim Brotherhood the try to use that link to make them more.
Westernized you're willing to actually -- except the way things are and to partner with the Muslim -- going Ford which again I don't wanna comment I just know that they've they've taken that -- and stressing out.
It'll stand -- wanna get your thoughts on Syria -- 12 let me just bring in Scott lake in here as well though Scott look the Muslim Brotherhood.
They get the presidency of Egypt the military according to what the kernel is saying and -- Leland does as saying.
Going to kind of defined the powers of the president and almost make it it -- it -- like a copresidency.
Good or bad thing.
Well -- leg where the kernel that.
In the military can play a role in this transition period but I think the danger incomes -- the military asserts itself so much from over the freely elected choice of the people.
I think that would and -- rightfully outraged the people who fought for this.
You know Arab Spring that they feel that their choice just because is not the choice in the military is not allowed to rule I think that would be a problem and also -- -- what -- the colonel said.
Is ever more crucial now for the Israelis and Palestinians to finally sit down.
And come up -- In agreement in the United States needs to get involved in a two state solution.
You know Palestine side by side in security with -- it has to happen now because.
It just always been important but now more than ever if that's not worked out I think it's gonna really create chaos in the region.
All right -- -- let me get to us area and now windier speaking of chaos -- speaking of chaos -- absolutely.
The that would the Russians and the US of being sort of going at each other over who's supplying weapons to whom.
-- and that it seems that the US is trying to put a lot more pressure on the Russians to get -- -- -- In terms of criticizing president -- now we gonna get this meeting this afternoon on the sidelines of the G-20 conference in Mexico.
Between presidents Obama and -- Are we gonna get anywhere.
Now right now I don't think you -- Scottish play that what what took traditionally in diplomacy you have a give and take you know course straight.
And I I just don't know how much we have to trade or anything to -- the Russians really want from us that we can use as leverage I mean we've already kinda given up on missile defense in Europe.
I think that's a TVD thing the president kind of already shown its hand saying a work with you on that.
Well we've got left is the fact that we have the the Russians are not concerned -- -- they put -- there.
To quote -- protect their own people that means that the things are about to go to another level of chaos.
This is where I don't agree I but I don't go as far as as those Senator McCain -- saying we need do.
Arm the rebels there's a middle ground we should seek care and seek the Russians took -- -- what is.
There needs to be essentially a government formed and it stands here.
Saying these groups this group that represents the Syrian people -- it stands here and the Arab League east to embrace that and endorse that and then try to work through a process of them and having a replacement government you know -- like what to do more to.
Where we had that Vichy French and you had.
Good -- coming I think there's a format for doing that but that that the thing is we can't do anything.
But I don't see us being able to do much to to force the Russians to come to our way of thinking at this point -- either what do you think -- is the Russian motivation.
Here is this just to put a thumb in the eye of the United States still.
Or -- they got real geopolitical interests of the concerned about.
All of them both I don't forget that they still support the Iranians as well and one of the lesser reported facts is that.
Despite the fact the Russians have publicly said we've reduced our number of -- going to the Syrians are really true because they're actually shipping him through the Iranians now just -- -- through the back -- most of the arms if you sit down and study it.
Not this the Russians directly so it's kind of a game of cat and mouse it's all about regional.
Basically authority and assist this kind of river -- of the Cold War and many aspects right and.
Any any truth to the idea that while the US has this plausible deny ability in saying we -- not.
Giving any weapons so the rebels we all sort of coordinating.
With the other countries who may be giving weapons to the rebels.
Hot -- having I think it's the only way we can go at this point time -- we we cannot Jonathan afford to get into another land conflict I mean.
We just don't you know -- -- sequestration coming up here a few months.
The idea of of the Iranian issue still being front senator.
I we've got to be very cautious about how we involve ourselves to reckless is much we know we've we've -- a lot of money to help these other Arab nations develop their own strong defenses.
Maybe we should -- encourage them to work within the context of what they have a way of weapons systems already.
To help establish a government again this government it stands here and work through a process to replace the Syrian government not allowed to descend the chaos which frankly.
We're just gonna see a defendant to continue to go down the road chaos if nothing happens yeah that's for sure all right attending colonel Tony -- the center for advanced defense studies altar of operation dot com.
Great to see you as always -- thank you John Legend you.