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State of the Race

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    Chris Stirewalt, Doeg Schoen and Fred Barnes discuss the latest news from the presidential campaign trail.

  • Duration 8:34
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2.5.

Percent.

That is all that separates President Obama from Republican challenger Mitt Romney in the real clear average of polls.

And this is power play so here's the question Internet here's a question for you.

What is the shape of this race right now bit -- surprised a lot of people doing better than many people expected that he would do shooter -- he would do but let's dig into the numbers let's find out what the heck is -- there and as we get into this -- kind of week dealing with the health law and other things where are things right now and I could not imagine two better people with -- to do that.

Fred Barnes and joining us from New York.

-- show.

He's a Fox News contributor to democratic pollster people for the clintons.

And he most importantly for your purposes is -- co host right here on the Internet television but campaign insiders.

Doug well.

Thank you so much press.

All right so here's the question I wanna I wanna start with the 30000 foot view from both of you gentlemen.

What is the state of the race today this moment before we on Thursday will will scramble the eggs with the health -- decision where -- the race and now after this beginning third.

And most don't go ahead.

Yeah RR I think that this is.

A obviously a very close races here initial presentation suggested Chris but the bottom line is this is been a very bad month.

For the president.

His numbers are coming down his approvals coming down as -- coming down his electoral count.

It's coming down a little bit more slowly.

But bottom line I think.

This race is moving in the direction of governor Romney.

Governor Romney hasn't yet offered people a compelling reason to vote for him other than to replace the incumbent.

But bottom line I think after Thursday as you suggested.

There's going to be even more reasons for the Obama administration to be concerned.

It's like you very good -- he just took your material and the first thing.

I think that's got up by saying I agree I think obviously the movement has been in Romney's direction there a couple of things to mention other than the fact that.

He he came out of the Republican primaries in much better shape than I certainly thought he would be -- and in and here again sooner.

-- areas we know one thing he's not gonna be outspent.

You know you talk to the Romney people and they say the only way we can loses a crowd shouted in other words the Obama campaign Democrats spend more well it's not gonna happen when you put together the Romney campaign and then the super -- -- will be backing him and Republicans.

They're gonna wind up that -- more spending on that side on the Republican side and on the democratic side and that matters.

And then when you and I agree with you know when you look at particularly economic numbers.

I mean just everything.

The president Obama's handling of the economy.

Asking people are you better off than you were four years ago do you think the economy's getting better and on and on on all those.

The president's underwater on all those he does have and his.

One of the key polls which show Doug mentioned is his.

Personal job performance rating and it it and it's about as good at lower level you know the mid June and mid to high forties.

Any lower than that and it -- gonna look that's going.

And mock tank says this to you done.

-- Mitt does not have to say anything.

Until after the Republican National Convention and there is if you'll pardon the puns some conventional wisdom that says Ronnie -- the good thing to do is.

If it's working for you in the news is our Q it's all about the president it's and it's all that stuff as you sit for a month it has been kind of -- -- and there are a lot of advantage for Romney in just keeping his powder dry and then saving it up for a post convention blitz.

I think that that's fair and I think go what's gonna happen.

Chris is that we're gonna hear more specifics from the governor.

At the convention in this convention speech but I guess I would take it back as a step and say we don't really even have a sense of the governor's vision.

What kind of an America.

He would like to see other than lower taxes smaller government government less regulation I think there's an interim position between.

Detailed program and -- sort of generic.

Points of the Republican right.

To give people something they frankly lack which is hope and optimism.

Fred the 11 thing about all of this -- argument the money and who are a viewer.

-- -- -- -- -- -- -- Food to buddy.

-- nobody says whoever spends the most always wins it's not true and right that's not only is that attributed a year like this what happens.

Is the bandwidth to get so full pipeline gets so -- everybody has bought every second of possible advertising time they've got everything it to a certain and it turns into white noise.

So what Romney -- the needs to do and will be able to do is at least match.

Obama spending right that was not true for McCain he was wildly outspent by Obama.

Again in 2008 so I think that's led to a game for Romney because it was thought earlier by me and the other people's may be -- as well that that the Obama forces would outspend.

Romney in the Republican forces that's not gonna happen everybody is pouring in particular to these super pacs -- Small but mainly large donors and and then so we're not gonna see that and I agree with that we don't know.

You need to have a vision something that does stir the -- Elizabeth -- voter results it it's fine to have your for a tax cut here for.

But doing these other things to spur the economy and Romney has a pretty get bad about what he's gonna do one day one on the day -- -- -- best daddy has is that you know I'm gonna.

Block obamacare is still alive and I'm gonna.

Go do this and that it -- -- -- -- -- -- -- the -- the Keystone Pipeline.

But you know he needs to flesh this out and put it all in a package Ronald Reagan was great on this and then.

And it in the truth is in 2008 anyway Barack Obama was very good at this he's not quite as good this stuff.

So what I -- in today's power play which -- should -- now for the way he could have just to follow me on Twitter as I'm sure you do -- That you could you could have the power play each day that I craft -- cordless Internet.

I I -- is my metrics does the gap between.

The wrong track number for the country for the right track number for the country and Mitt Romney's personal favorability.

And the wider the spread there could be more likely it is that Romney wins.

Two months ago it was a 3.3 point spread.

May eighteenth it was six point seven points now it's up to eleven point six points.

The problem of course is -- series you're Obama Romney's favorable for going up and the right track number is going down -- the president.

Has he not succeeded yet but may eventually succeed in dragging down Romney's personal favorability.

That that's really the challenge shouldn't.

Chris your putting your finger on what I think the Obama campaign believes they need to do because.

While I agree with Fred absolutely.

That there is data -- -- a Reagan like vision.

Bottom line Obama really doesn't have a vision and I think he has been almost -- a political sense derelict in not.

Developing one in the sense that he's had six months or so.

To tell people what his re election will be about and so far other than being for the middle class and against.

Helping the wealthy.

We really don't have a sense of what.

The president's own vision for a second term as and I don't think he can wait until the convention.

But that being said this strategy Chris is I think just to demonize governor Romney -- people on Bain Capital his performance as governor.

Or anything they can.

I don't think it's a recipe for success but there hypothesis.

Is that if they can keep his favorability -- governors.

Below 45.

It's going to be tough for him to win.

I dare say that there's evidence from 1980 that that strategy didn't serve the Carter reelection -- all that well.

Boom and there you have it does not working out for Obama because he's been very negative.

You know Obama Romney's corporate raider -- -- and they'll hire one I'm Fred yeah yeah I tell you real pain and into the just hasn't worked because while they've been running mainly negative ads particularly enough.

The month of may.

Romney's numbers for improvement okay got to take a break we thank you for being with -- router -- -- thank you we ran.

And he urged the Internet to join you on campaign insiders win and they see you on campaigning.

-- they can see us 1030.

Every Monday morning and 530 on the Fox News Channel Sunday -- -- pretty big deal thank you have a great day forever.

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