Shifting numbers on the electoral map
Karl Rove, Joe Trippi assess latest poll numbers
- Duration 6:53
- Date Jun 25, 2012
Karl Rove, Joe Trippi assess latest poll numbers
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Few minutes about the magic number this November 270.
As in 270 electoral votes to win the presidency.
Let's bring back former bush senior advisor Karl Rove.
And democratic strategist Joseph Trippi to tell us the latest on these numbers gentlemen thanks for being here before we start let's look at the map the latest map.
And lay it out for you this map you can see on the key red means Romney.
Blue Obama President Obama then the pink issues -- Romney the light blue lean Obama.
And this is based on polls over the last thirty days an average of the thirty day public polls.
These are the latest.
And this -- the plus or minus is based on Mitt Romney so if it's plus nine let's say it's from Mitt Romney plus non.
And minus would be heading towards President Obama OK Carl what has changed since we last match.
Well only three states have changed two them yeah Iowa change from lean Obama to toss up.
And New Hampshire went from strong Obama to lean Obama those were both five point margins based on.
Really data that's happened in the last thirty days.
And one of a Montana went from leading Romney to strong Romney.
But that's really because we haven't had a poll -- a long time and Montana they're probably shifted into the strong Romney category some number of months ago.
But we just had a recent poll it was the first of many many months but interested enough Iowa New Hampshire both moved from.
From where they were two more favorable towards Romney and they did so by a margin of five points -- those were both based on polls on the left.
Thirty day -- -- mentions it's over the thirty day average so it's important to point out that some of these states may be a lot more in one way or the other but you're basing it on several polls that are still in there.
Yeah I mean that's the problem when you're doing a thirty day average -- some of these states we don't have that many polls tour and you drop one of -- out.
Long time ago really looks like something shifted.
And you know and there's other changing demographics going on -- we've seen a lot of these polls.
They come with Hispanics.
Obama is really Whiting -- out which is start to have the DC a slight shift in.
Places like Nevada and Colorado.
That look like very big big could be moving more into Obama's.
Again makes it's better for -- did Iowa New Hampshire opening up.
Because of that prop.
So you see some movement in the Hispanic community particularly out west with with Colorado.
-- Mexico yeah those states are starting to look like they're drifted away a little bit and again from Romney to Obama because of that -- -- big shift that happened after the Obama immigration.
Move that he made that I think Scott Romney off guard in its and I think it's -- it's definitely exploded.
All what was already a big lead with -- Obama had over Romney with Hispanics you know up -- the sixties and.
-- I'm not certain I agree with that Nevada for example drifted by one point towards Romney Colorado drifted by one point two Obama.
Arizona drifted by one point two Obama.
But that is just statistical clutter -- we don't see any evidence yet and I don't see any evidence yet in the data.
That the -- that the president -- a statement last Friday had a significant impact have made in months ahead but what I what I I think is significant is eleven states.
There -- number in the in this latest go around -- data.
Eight move towards Romney including three to change their status.
And only three states got better for Obama and none of them change their status Arizona Colorado and New Jersey but eight states.
Move towards Romney and that that seems to me that we're gonna see -- throughout the summer slow but persistent movement.
At least for now towards Romney and until something happens dramatically.
To change -- back that's probably that's.
Probably where it's going.
After I think that's right we were seeing just little tiny shifts here I do think when you look at the states it.
I've moved to Obama Colorado I mean this in the states that -- Were mentioning Carl mentioned -- I think the reason is the Hispanic vote February when she's right let's.
-- last time here talking about money.
And the spending of money Joseph the Obama campaign seems like it's hearing a lot of infrastructure and has a high burn rate.
You say there's a strategy behind that now.
-- I think what there Dave reinvented the way we campaign they did it 2008 I think they're trying to do it this time they're using they're building a huge.
Online network in their spending a lot of money on the ground to turn that into not to go into -- on the ground army for get out the vote.
-- root for Romney campaign is running more traditional campaign direct mail a lot more of its money on this on television.
And it you know we're gonna see.
Have they reinvented it again or not and I think they're betting that they can and and that's -- were Riley enemy is a guy who started the dean campaign -- I understand I think I understand what they're trying to do and I think -- -- it's -- unclear where they concede added but that's what they're trying.
I think there's a lot of wisdom -- what Joseph said about them trying to reinvent but -- let's look at the drivers of the money.
Since may fifteenth since -- -- -- may seventh.
Till two to July 2.
The Obama campaign will spend 58 million dollars on television ads the Romney campaign will have spent fourteen million dollars on television ads.
During that period of time outside groups that have been supportive of the president's agenda.
We'll spend an additional ten million dollars groups that oppose the president's agenda.
We'll spend a total of 54.
52 million dollars on television so the president -- president and his allies outspent.
Robbie and his allies by about a 68 to 66 million dollar margin but that's money coming out of Obama's campaign account.
Not much money coming -- a Romney's and I think this.
In the month of in the month of may alone two thirds of president Obama's cash on hand advantage over the Republicans and -- was wiped out.
By the excessive spending no the Obama campaign and maybe.
Maybe Joseph is right they've they've really created campaigns and they've got a new model it's gonna explode in November with a victory.
But right now they are running out of cash -- and my suspicion is by July.
We may see the Republicans with more money in the bank and the Obama campaign -- in the bottom of the barrel the president's already reduced.
To go and do offensive which -- -- and a half a million dollars a whack.
That's not a good place to be at this.
One Joseph and Carl the analysis is appreciated and we'll have you back look at the numbers thanks for -- -- We should note Karl Rove his co-founder of the super pac crossroads GPS.
And Joseph Trippi a TrailBlazer and democratic online fundraising.
Helps raise money for progressive causes and democratic candidates the Supreme Court ruled.