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Campaign Insiders: What national polls to trust

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    Doug Schoen, John LeBoutillier, and Pat Caddell discuss polling data

  • Duration 7:16
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Doug -- I'm here with my.

Friends and colleagues -- to -- and John the -- live witnesses campaign insiders as you know from hopefully having watched us either on.

FNC around the web.

We try to tell it like it is we try to avoid spin and we try to deal with the real inside.

-- political campaigns and to that end I'd like to go through an exercise that may take a little bit of time a little bit.

Of effort but I think you'll be very useful for those -- you at home watching.

Answering the question what is going on with the national polls and we have holes five through.

Eight but I would like to put up on the screen.

And I'll talk through each of shortly.

There after this first one is -- pew poll which shows the president leaving governor Romney by four points.

We go to the next one and which use the AP poll President Obama leading governor Romney by three points.

-- Rasmussen poll which shows governor Romney leading President Obama by five points in contrast to -- your first two.

Then we finally have the third poll which has Bloomberg poll has.

Obama leading by thirteen.

Pat what's going on here why kill one pull out what why it was all gonna look like start -- the first.

Three which for the rest -- -- -- showed Romney ahead the other that was -- like we boulders.

The other two polls before that BP.

In the and the pew poll were with registered voters.

So that's not to be you view that explains part of that.

The Al -- here is the Bloomberg poll which makes no sense whatsoever.

And as -- like to say you know folks there are good hold their battles and sometimes -- just because you know you hear this the phrase.

What -- your pollsters talk about it we do 95 out of a hundred times 95% chance to move within the margin of error.

Well there is set 5% chance with a BM thing it is wrong.

And this is one of them because it is so clearly.

It's got -- to democratic it's it's beyond the 08 demographics we're being pro Democrat.

And on top of that it has to present the negative operating in a thirteen point lead you know sometimes when you see -- police say -- -- that's not a good poll we shouldn't put it up.

But they are -- best news.

And it's our job to tell you you until you now throw it out -- just because it has the name of a news organization does not make it any real.

Good poll John what's your take.

Why you got to the pollsters I'm not that all the men and I saw on morning Joseph and Al hunt -- load was unveiling thing I just said act.

No way there's no way in this.

Either guys ahead by thirteen points all -- you put up Doug.

The Rasmussen won because it's likely voters intrigues me the most mean there is -- ahead by five points.

And we have four undecided six other ten that's ten those ten going back to Obama or -- and are are gonna go NIC for -- -- curious Pat's reaction but I would say that the other.

And the undecided if they break for the major two candidates are more likely to break two -- three -- one for Romney than Obama.

Okay so that would be six to four let's go to.

-- -- they 6% go for -- we're now at 54 points for the for Romney to beat the president understands that's the biggest.

Is well all the I don't think it is great parents who that big but the movement is in that direction I've -- state polls.

And I've seen some holes where you look at those people if you look at these are previous ones the AP has only a few new -- has only four bit.

There are 9% undecided and of course -- is I think his will if you can still -- more democratic in its results.

But in any event you've gotten a 9% need people.

If they are eight and 9% of voters wandering around they're moving -- of Obama in -- are headed to Romney if he can convince them.

I really -- remember -- remember that we have most voters.

We talked about this last week which -- two different nominees are not thrilled with this choice.

So therefore that has the factor in this but eventually that's why I keep saying -- to jump ball.

But it's Romney's moment right now and -- Obama campaign news is Doug keep saying just furiously attacking him on one thing after another in the hopes they can bring down.

You know I'd like to turn given this conversation.

Took poll number -- the quinnipiac Florida -- And you see here that President Obama is four points ahead of governor Romney.

President Obama is well under 50%.

Governor Romney's 42 that.

John to your question leaves an undecided that's 12%.

Which again in my judgment would be more likely than not to break.

Disproportionately.

From governor Romney but this suggests that Florida is within the margin America.

Effectively a -- And I think supports the conclusion that I would reach which is that the well Bloomberg poll almost certainly.

Substantially.

-- states the Obama.

Lead you to believe in the Rasmussen poll may be slightly hard but bottom line I see the whole thing has effectively it's -- I had to cancel about notable jump no bull market to about two things I heard after this -- came out this quinnipiac deplorable that the last month Obama has spent a huge amount of money in Florida trying to get numbers back -- so.

It works but look what he's gonna spend -- it -- and -- to some extent you know.

Second point the story that came out -- get through yesterday and Tuesday.

The allegation.

Which has been denied by the Romney campaign but the allegation that the Romney campaign -- asked Florida governor Republican governor.

Rick Scott.

To stop saying -- publicly that the Florida economy is getting better because they don't want that to help Obama in Florida.

We've been saying amongst ourselves off the air a little bit on here.

That this is the wrong approach the Rodney should ask these governors to say hey I'm a Republican ago.

Well things are getting better since we took over here in Florida Ohio blah blah and if we have a Republican president elect Mitt Romney it'll get better and actually embraced -- six.

I'm seeing that this is eight and I'm just amazed at some good Romney campaign is not adapted to stop this strategy of saying voters you want to see some proof.

You left -- always Republican governors who can look for the coming look how well they're doing their states there is a model.

Now we have this nationally it would work for everybody -- embrace it rather than trying to sell off because you that simplistic media keeps going resting well.

Shrewd veteran Ohio so this'll help Obama -- -- Romney needs to make that case -- then you say to voters are not stupid this dog and I know.

You know they can walk and chew gum fills a room that's an interesting -- -- -- seven of the ten best states.

Look at California look at Illinois on the other side how bad they are and we want to go back to that.

No it's at least an argument that helps buttress the idea that broadly represented anybody during the had a better front.

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