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Who is really ahead in presidential polls?

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    Karl Rove breaks down latest numbers

  • Duration 3:58
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Fox News is America's election headquarters and right now brand new presidential poll numbers to -- revealing.

Who's currently getting support from key voting blocs.

Both President Obama governor Romney can claim bragging rights among particular groups but first let's take a look.

At the latest head to head match up according to the NBC Wall Street Journal poll.

The race is a statistical dead heat it's within the margin of error.

Drilling down a bit deeper in the same survey shows governor Romney leading -- -- Obama among Tea Party supporters.

Whites and men prisoner -- has the advantage we African Americans women and independent voters Fox News contributor Karl Rove is a former senior advisor and deputy chief of staff to president George W.

Bush he joins us live.

Carl good to see you look it's obviously -- very tight race but I wanna put up.

On the screen a map of the United States and we've highlighted twelve key swing states is there they are.

And the president leaves governor Romney fifteen to 42%.

In those key swing states remake of that.

Well you touched on it.

That that's it that looks like a good lead let's put it however in context.

In 2008.

In those same twelve states.

President Obama beat Senator McCain by 85545.

Margin a ten point.

Lead today he is it 5042 so there's been a slight diminution of his strength in these states.

It probably shows the advantage of the 68 million dollars to President Obama and his allies will have put on TV between.

The seventh of may and the second of July.

And -- and you also mentioned independence is -- these -- the people who -- obviously gonna -- only election in 2008 -- Obama had an eight point margin among this group.

Today he has in the Wall Street Journal ABC in the what Wall Street Journal NBC poll.

If four point margin so look we're a long way from November but there's good news for both candidates in the poll and bad news -- Obama's Holden.

Pretty close though not exactly where he was among swing state voters.

Among independents Mitt Romney appears to chipped away a little bit it is -- that he had.

But he drilled at deeper and there's good news bad news for both candidates in the poll I wanna throw up some more polls.

Because the president's favorability rating is.

Is not underwater or in fact his favorability is 48% unfavorable 38%.

Now.

Compare that to Mitt Romney's favorability rating 33%.

He's under water.

Because his unfavorable is 39%.

And his favorability in the swing states has actually dropped.

What's going on have have all of the negative TV ads run by the president's campaign had -- had an effect on governor Romney.

I think they might have but look president Obama's got real problems they like him.

But they don't like his policies on the big issues that are gonna determine their vote his approval rating on the economy is 53%.

Americans think we're going on the wrong track by 61%.

In two by 21 margin Americans think the president Obama's economic policies of either actively hurt the economy.

Or not helped its recovery so he's got a problem -- how people feel about his about his policies.

On the other hand Mitt Romney's got a problem than not enough people know I'm only 20% in this poll.

So they -- say they know a great deal look a lot about Mitt Romney.

Compared to 43% who know who say they know a great deal about about Barack Obama -- this means of Mitt Romney can both explain who he is and drive his numbers up.

But it also means they can president Obama's campaign can tag.

Mitt Romney's record as a business person.

And do some damage to them and we see a little bit evidence in this polls at 18% of the people in this poll say that the governor what they've learned about governor Romney's business record.

Makes him feel more positive about a 33%.

Say it makes it feel more negative on Karl Rove.

Former senior advisor to president George W.

Bush thanks very much.

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