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Hi welcome to Defcon three this is the hour each week on Fox News -- come live.
Where we go beyond this -- -- and we take a little -- digger deeper into the national security issues of the day.
I'm KT McFarland and we want to join you in our discussion so either -- via Twitter -- -- KT McFarland.
Or -- a live chats and listener questions and then you get to help me ask the questions of the real pros.
And today the war in Syria is hitting closer to the power center and we'll have a live report.
Well look at the -- tensions in the Middle East especially in Egypt the growing tensions after the additional actions.
And here at home there's a problem with the TSA is any -- -- -- played in the last couple of months now.
We're -- a talk about it with congressman Marsha Blackburn.
Also on our agenda there -- some Marine Corps pioneers -- -- getting honored today at our nation's capital.
Now the sanctions against Iran are set to take -- this weekend.
Finally we want to take a look at the US energy prospects -- and I says gain energy independence from the air broke by exploiting our own oil and African -- But first for got a report from Syria.
A Fox News team went to the scene of a deadly attack on a pro government TV station.
And the aside regime is calling it massacre.
Great how -- is streaming live from Damascus with the story grant.
Hey -- yeah we've been telling our viewers for the last couple days that what we've been seen.
As the rebel strikes -- getting closer and closer to the -- Damascus today as you mentioned.
We had a firsthand look at exactly that.
Take a look at what we -- V station.
Outside of Damascus the burning and smoldering remains of a bomb explosion -- -- walls of a power mortar attacks and as with everything in this conflict now a lot of spin.
On both sides.
One opposition group is saying that it was -- -- -- soldiers who were involved in this.
Whoever did it is certainly was a well coordinated and deadly attack.
After hitting that plays with mortars we were told that armed gunmen burst into the -- may -- dozens of them spraying the place -- bullets killing three journalists and four security guards and then.
Setting as many as six large bombs and detonating them and that cause a lot of wreckage and fire.
It's not sitting well with the Syrian government as you can imagine the Foreign Ministry describing the attack as you noted a massacre a massacre against the freedom of the press.
The UN office here also condemning it.
Here is what a reporter a colleague of those killed had to say to us at the scene take a listen.
-- completes -- this is what happened.
Why they want it they'll feed them they want democracy this is the kind of democracy they -- the other opinion.
A lot of anger out there K exe but as we rode around.
Going to and from that scene were struck by something else.
These huge amount of security on the streets.
Soldiers checkpoints.
Vehicles.
I absolutely.
Indicative.
The response to.
What we've been hearing what we've been seeing the last couple days this building number of attacks in the suburbs of Damascus as we drove from town to town.
Our our interpreter was explaining to us that one town.
Is for the government one town is against the government there is some loss anti regime sentiment.
Very close to where the -- -- two other quick notes the UN investigation into that look.
Massacre that is.
More than 100 men women and children.
In -- town here in Syria back in May came out.
And while they're not definitive BC reported a bigger -- regime and the UN also announcing today.
Yet one more contact group meeting including.
If this -- believe secretary of state that Clinton for Saturday.
To try to put an end to all this -- Success back to.
Okay well that's great how -- reporting from Damascus Syria I want to point out that -- is one of the few western reporters.
It's been able to get a team inside Syria and the pictures that you're sending back -- -- showing.
Thank you so much since they say -- Voter turn out to Amanda returned to in the past and we -- -- get a deeper understanding of what's going on.
In -- -- bonds and that part of the Middle East and that's not to -- this coming he's at the Hoover institution at Stanford University.
He's just written another really compelling book this one's called the Syrian rebellion.
Very takes a look at what's happened and why because Syria was -- country just.
Eighteen months ago the US secretary.
I say Secretary Clinton had pointed to Syria pointed -- -- Asad of Syria and called him a reformer.
And yet the pictures that you've just seen.
Children.
And body bags and the kind of devastation that no one would have expected at a city like Syria which has been at the crossroads of the world for the last 3000 years so doctor -- thank you so much for joining us again thank you very much Casey.
And please explain how did we get to this point whereas even the Syrian government is saying there's a civil war.
Well you know exactly -- Russia unless it has finally told his people live in the state of war we've known that the city is in the State's -- And in fact if you go back to the beginning of this Oakland out of spring.
In -- 2011.
Every society and out of was displayed its own characteristics there was a rebellion in Tunisia it was mild.
In the two weeks -- and addictive that was gone.
There was that rebellion in Egypt is square eighteen days -- -- -- but it was done that was accrued rebellion in Libya and finally.
NATO relative to an end and Qaddafi was killed and dragged out of drainage pipe.
And then was this.
Difficulties of city of this city ends with a -- that have been against the regime.
Because deep down that society understood that there is would be very very difficult for them and that the regime is so -- -- I'm so torn up by this -- and fault line between this and immaturity and I know minority that's in power so we see this as a spectacle that was seen.
Its newest of the importance of issues said there's -- -- white minority that runs.
Syria and then there's a Sunni majority this is not what's happening in other countries in the Middle East in the Arab Spring why is it different -- What I think city it was always unique if you would -- that the country can make the case every country is its own you know the stemmed out of world conceals a lot frank it's -- some reality that it considers that that's.
To make it very long story short -- was that a minority of mountaineers they would deport us.
Of the sodium population.
So they went into something that was very important this was that -- out of poverty the military.
Once they went into the military they woke up some three decades -- -- -- -- that I -- independence.
And they've conquered from the -- they would lucky that we're lucky in having this -- very capable of dictator.
Hafez Assad the father the father as a matter how he -- should file and immediately made the country.
So he really became set up -- dictatorship and that and I wanted to pass on to his son but it's a military dictators and it's.
Almost like you concluded totally and despotism mean the idea that you have missiles have from the mountain.
Like how possess that who came from a topography.
-- rooting for three years by terror and then because we think -- -- his own -- it made a mockery.
To the symbols of both Republican ruled that.
City it was tried -- -- on.
Generally I'm making this fascinated buys in Syria -- in Libya on likened agents and other countries -- the military has hung tough is in serious they have they have not affected they're not been the widespread defections just saw.
In the Libyan military.
Yet at the same time the Syrian -- military is keeping a -- power unlike the Egyptian military which turned then turned on number.
That's why is -- so cohesive when I think is very interesting because you're right.
The Egyptian military through about a under the bus -- -- -- they just they decided to get rid of them because Egyptian military -- a kind of a pride of its own tradition.
And -- -- not going to kill egyptians this was not something they wanted to do and the people who are the people who were killed in Egypt.
Lot of them with -- by the police the army always maintained.
Its own pride as a corporate institution as the army of of Egypt and in -- absolutely different.
The officer -- of the lords of the army are full.
From the -- -- own community.
And the brigades.
Makes is such a way.
They you have -- I -- -- commanders that and then you have even this -- is within the military units.
And then you have -- -- -- new recruits who don't know what to do.
Yes -- Harrison about a year ago I was with the chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff admiral Mullen former chairman and I asked him what will the Egyptian military do as to have it as that people -- per -- And he said he talked to his counterpart in -- and the counterpart promised him.
That the Egyptian military would never fire on the Egyptian people that they would stand with the Egyptian people but now you're seeing.
The Syrian military.
Killing -- continuing to kill their -- people.
How does everybody stay in this fight and I understand the military and -- -- have decided it's killer recalculated they're not going to stop -- but where does this Syrian resistance come from.
What the city and resistance comes from the sense of violation.
That ordinary civilians have come to -- they would rule by terror for four decades.
And they looked around and -- 2011 and they -- this out of flowering -- -- all around them they even look at societies they look down on.
Let me in Yemen and Libya and its solid out of people -- in the midst of this rebellion asking for freedom.
So they began the civilians and as one facility and said.
What began as a as a yearning for freedom became a kind of killing because that's that the regime as hunkered down its its dug in.
And you're right that when you look at the Egyptian army and you see -- professionalism.
But when you come to the city -- -- -- but who's the most powerful figure in the sit -- on this but shot his younger brother mad at Canada.
Who is another major figure in -- sit in on -- is his brother who will.
-- -- chalk up another -- so this is not a professional army this is the army this has been the arm.
Of those community about it we this is -- thinks that if it did it community an -- -- she hasn't.
And they know that given what they've done for the country for four decades that they would be show no mercy today after that.
So they'll just continue to -- and I got to look at the example that they saw in Asia that -- and Tunisia.
And the last thing you want to do is give and right to the demonstrators because you'll be get -- get rid of you.
Yes and I think this but the is it that's -- so but I think they also know of the the today.
-- cute and these sneak set of their of their -- and they know that they are a dreaded despise community dreaded minority.
And they know that ordinarily means teams in this society 75%.
Of the population density lesson is they're not going to be -- indefinitely.
By 101112%.
Of the population -- Okay so how to get away with it and they wire the Russians why the Iranians.
-- the Chinese standing.
Behind the frogs.
Well I think that's that's that's -- -- -- I think.
The Russians and the Chinese the Chinese their -- ever thinking of Tibet they don't want.
And he went into theater in Denton and affairs so they don't want anyone -- that raffia.
And there benefits that it that Russians because that's their assets in the region.
They haven't even base and talk to us on -- Mediterranean and a warm water base insidious.
And that's the only military naval base and have outside a -- As it is that it could few days but that's etiquette theater production and it's what they have.
So look at that I shows that having a -- -- -- time.
Because we know remember that this that the pilot in the affairs of the world and in the recent meeting in Mexico between prison who who didn't.
And President Obama.
Indeed the arrogance of -- was born of the of this recognition that they have a card to play as -- as that card.
That it onions and bent on staying there because being -- mean also being in Lebanon.
Bead incident mean also close to Israel and so putting it on -- -- -- This -- neither of those countries give up -- SI Irish famers here with they wanted to do so what are the options.
Don't you mean you've just been -- by the way to one of the refugee -- I didn't have to avenge her.
Of -- to the city it's a keyboard and spent a lot of time with the refugees.
And it's very interesting I spent a lot of time with -- people who come to the camps.
And you know spend the night to the weekend -- see their families and sneak.
Back to city overnight.
And actually couple of them.
Immediately.
Give the baskets of accompany them to -- here which again I thank -- decline I -- -- I and I declined so I think.
It it goes on and in this city and also this that this fight is not yet spent.
The protagonists that you believe.
Match if you him.
On the side of the city and rebellion that is the sense of justice -- socialist society that really wants stability from the Steelers.
On the part of the regime this -- -- regime that was -- for a moment like this they have been to Katie.
That organized the units to survive this kind of event.
Let's turn to -- is -- -- hopefully a better story which is each of the egyptians -- just have their elections they've elected a Muslim brother.
But leader now we have been told by some experts -- don't worry about the Muslim Brotherhood.
They're reform they're they're not that Muslim brotherhood of -- 1920s that wants an Islamist state.
That wants to kill -- -- on the other hand we're told well as you know wolf in sheep's clothing that the Muslim Brotherhood is going to end up being like the Iranian regime -- -- -- When I don't know I think I'm in the middle I know that I am really in the middle on this question I'm slightly kind of he -- conflicted.
The Egyptian people spoke and Egyptian people's book and we have to respect that choice it was a very close call by the way.
In the end.
The Egyptian people -- they ended up with the with two candidates both of them are wrong.
The three better candidates.
Lost in the first round because it was very foolish that would too many of them.
-- ended up with two candidates and how much -- -- with a Ph.D.
from the universe -- Southern California by the way that's the Muslim Brotherhood candidate.
And this.
You know -- -- feet.
-- the -- who was.
Well but it's loss prime minister and was an air force officer Michael actually had the burden.
Of being if you -- from the Mubarak era and we ended up with these two flawed candidates.
I think this is you know sometimes democracy works like this.
And 25 million egyptians went out and -- to fifteen million people voted for more see the Muslim Brotherhood twelve million people quote to from -- -- feet.
And we'll -- was.
Let us tell us they say you have to come back and tell us about the next chapters aren't.
Bartlett thank you so much for -- doctor -- -- Hoover institution author of the Syrian rebellion.
Read it you'll understand an awful lot of what's kind at least in Syria and really in the greater Middle East today -- -- -- -- -- -- pleasure beach thank you very much for joining us.
We're gonna take a break and then come back.
With congressman Marsha Blackburn who has been hot on the trail of the TSA -- the terrorists for so many travelers today.
Country.
What you know today's a really important -- -- -- -- -- whole development of the Middle East.
But one thing that we forget is what's happening here in the United States congresswoman.
Marsha Blackburn of Tennessee she's a firecracker she's one of the people that everyone lets you -- that -- my most powerful women in Washington but somebody who takes on the tough issues.
Now she still -- study of the TSA.
The group that we all have to deal with everytime I -- out on a plane and she's found out some pretty interesting things.
So welcome to -- country we're delighted to have you what have you found out about the TSA.
What I found out about it as that the TSA as an organization is not doing a very good job -- on their due diligence before they hire.
Individuals who are supposed to be screeners in processors.
But they change their title -- officer.
And did it through the rule making process house.
Why it what are things that I didn't start to see is that you -- after ten years are we any safer in here concluding that may be not.
I think that we may be less safe take take.
And here's the reason why.
And I report I've got a key findings page in bed and goes through the -- it'd been committed and actually did tells the sound.
And know when you look at the fact that they have been fifteen that have been arrested for theft -- sex crimes six for child pornography.
-- for assault.
Three for bribery and the list goes on and on firearms impersonating an officer murder conspiracy.
You know I'll probably find out is -- the individuals who are filling this role of what is supposed to be customer service agents.
But has been changed through the rule making process to being called an officer.
And -- wearing that federal law enforcement uniform without any law enforcement training.
I think that what it does is to give a false sense of security and then it opens up.
The door to -- my goodness are these individuals qualify.
To be doing this job that they are hard to do in Minneapolis would say.
No they're not.
We -- is if this litany of the crimes that they've committed to every checking these people kind of background checks -- again and there are literally enforcement officers and are we not.
Finding out who they are.
You're you're exactly right -- they are.
Filling that role of an office or even though they're not help what we found out on the TSA is hiring practices.
Is that -- Michael Washington Reagan airport.
Had they have advertised.
On pizza boxes and it discount gas stations for people to come an apply.
-- -- job of being a TSA screener.
And then as I said they go through eighty hours of training that's all.
Now if you wanted to be a law enforcement officer you would go through about six months of training that you also would have met certain.
Qualifications.
In ordered to be able to submit.
An application.
And -- you go through the training vigna pass a test.
And that that's not what you see with the TSA you see individuals.
Who economy and who are not properly screened.
They go through eighty hours of training then they're put in that uniform that would -- one to believe that that they are.
A law enforcement officers so people assume that's the role that they -- and they do not have those background checks and TSA should not be.
In the human resource businesses one of the decisions that we have made.
From doing our investigation.
What you know one of the things that you -- -- if these people are are checking us out they don't have the proper training what are they missing but I think there's a second issue didn't you also.
Do some investigation and find out that no one of the biggest threats we face in the air travel system is the internal threat to the United States.
Mean who are -- -- security clearances how do we know.
That there are not somebody who is partly to try to get that job in order to -- -- See and that's exactly right that's where we may be less safe and there's a West Point study.
And that I have reference to end this report.
And that this -- bottom line.
You know if you're not doing the due diligence on the front and if you can't of these individuals that have been arrested for these crimes.
And and they are they are on the front line if you will but you don't know who they are and what -- -- -- is and they don't have this training.
Then what do you open yourself up to the West Point study does talk about it deep inside threat.
If you well.
And -- recently just this week.
What my staff and I were able to.
Find out was the TSA has begun to monitor as a personal emails.
I'm very employees and -- I think that would say that you think they may have a problem with an inside threat to when you look at.
Why pay when you look at what is transpiring there in -- you find out that they are monitoring.
And doing keyword searches on their an employees -- you know.
We need to just.
Go back and start out are on -- We were to have customer service agents who were there to assist the traveling public.
Well you know what TSA decided they were going to change their title in column officers -- uniforms.
Unionize them.
Then start giving them ranks of -- our team leader or supervisor putting apple ads and stripes on their shoulders.
I give them authority that they are not supposed to have.
-- tax payers and individuals that are traveling in using this process it's gotten out of control.
It and leans to potential.
Leaks in breaches within our security system.
It needs to be.
Clinton back in the position in the posture that congress intended it when the legislation was put in place she need to put him back and work -- with a patch on it.
Assist people is they go through the screening.
And didn't tighten up.
The securities said that you do not have these openings and potential.
For greater harm.
Well I gotta tell you I would not want to mess with you and you're explanation of what you're gonna -- I think we ought to watch what you're doing you've got legislation proposed.
To deal with it TSA and everybody ought to support you now what is -- what is the act called.
It is called the strip back good not TSA -- policy is that it's called strip that easy to every member.
And what we wanna do is get him out of these uniforms and what what -- -- legislation says luck.
If you do not have federal law enforcement training and are not eligible for federal law enforcement benefits thing you can't -- an issue -- farm.
And it takes them out in that uniform and returns them to the posture of being -- customer service as assistant.
Which is what the legislation.
I designed to this position to be and -- we are very concerned.
About the safety and security of the traveling public where are very concerned.
I had bout this safety that is in -- for our air train sick individuals.
Packages.
All of that at the airports.
So we're saying -- -- the TSA did that mission must get him off of our city buses must get him off of our state highways.
Let's say gad -- off of -- train systems let's put them back there where there assisting the traveling public you know.
The TSA is ingested they do random searches they -- Take action on actionable intelligence.
Like the FBI -- the CIA.
Our law enforcement agencies do and we think that this isn't an area.
That it's in this is something that we can address and put back on the right track and he needs to be done and -- -- Kara congresswoman Marsha Blackburn Republican of Tennessee -- at a toughest ladies -- town is advocating that strip act.
I'm capital held a deal with the TSA you go girl.
I win if I felt welcome back in -- an -- day.
Did you think with yeah -- so much thank you okay we're gonna take a break and -- come back and hurt her own Jennifer Griffin at the parent.
Well today at the nation's capital a forgotten piece -- US Marine Corps history will be recognized so some -- finally Jennifer Griffin has the story from -- Jennifer let's -- month.
Hi Kate -- well this is an amazing day.
Because as you note the Marines were the last to integrate.
African Americans into the military back in the forties.
They were the last service to do so but as with all things marine when they do something they do something.
In a very serious manner and so in general James Amos the commandant of the Marines.
Discovered that the month for point Marines which were the first African Americans in the Marines had not been recognized and he pushed for.
The congressional gold medal to be given to about 400 of the surviving Marines.
They are getting that -- on Capitol Hill today.
Some of the discrimination that they face that the time would it you you have to remember this was the Jim Crow period.
They literally had to clear five and a half acres of the area next to Camp Lejeune where they had separate.
But very unequal training facilities here's general Amos.
You were northern.
African American you remote northern black young man.
You rode the trains down through your -- from the northeast and it was.
It was normally you brought you go anywhere -- the -- -- go to the dining car once you allegedly crossed the Mason Dixon line.
There were put back -- put up in the -- -- which is right behind the locomotive.
And that's where they stayed -- rush to judgment on.
Originally these -- point Marines.
We're not allowed to fight in battles they -- -- only allowed to carry ammunition they were all allowed to carry the white Marines out of combat and when they were wounded.
And what they found in iconic battles for the Marines at Iwo jima and Okinawa.
Those mom for point Marines suddenly stepped up and days started carrying out -- accident was really pick it really paved the way for the desegregation not only of the military.
But of society as a whole when they returned one of the most famous mom for -- Marines was of course former New York mayor David Dinkins many people may not know that.
But again 400 -- these Marines many of them as old as a hundred years old.
Are on Capitol Hill today we spoke to one of them.
Where's the via the talent that -- they're gonna make -- to carry it saw all of the other of light green to about it.
I had better that we were breaking every record that they overhead because they -- just did the vendors to where we just couldn't -- -- for that.
So again they are training was separate but unequal they weren't given much harder task than than their white marine -- in basic training.
And yet they have no equal -- T a great day to remember the month for point Marines.
You know -- -- this story that you said in the general Amos was referring to where -- have -- African Americans who -- analysts said -- and take the train to the south and be treated very differently.
Colin Powell who was a colleague of mine in the Reagan administration.
Four star general.
Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff secretary of state.
He said that during the Vietnam War the same thing happened to him he was a New York boy he was in the army and yet when he drove south.
To join his unit in the south he had to use a different bathroom may have the drink out of different water cooler.
So I think that this that this month report Marines they really broke them they broke that barrier for everyone in the -- -- took awhile for that -- to come down.
Just look at the amazing effect -- had on the air forces where.
African Americans Hispanic Americans are represented in far greater percentages.
And their percentage of the general population and they're doing just a phenomenal job so.
Bravo -- as they say in the marine corporate -- That's right and in fact the the military as you mention is made up.
Of about a third about a third of the military are minorities at this point in time so.
They did pave the way along with the buffalo soldiers along with the Tuskegee airmen but these -- for -- Marines now have a special place in history.
Now I -- you have to run off enjoying undersecretary of defense in just a few minutes but what was gonna happen at this ceremony.
This is a ceremony.
That the secretary -- offense has been.
Has been discussing.
Are you talking about that sorry that the ceremony on Capitol Hill -- that yeah PM I'm sorry okay.
Yes -- been several ceremonies here this morning one -- but the one on Capitol Hill.
Essentially they're about 400 -- report Marines that they found they put ads in local newspapers all across the country.
The -- -- Marine Corps as well this as the secretary of defense will be there on Capitol Hill as they get the congressional gold medal many of them are.
Upwards of -- there at nine in their ninety's or a hundred years old.
And again and I spoke to the common -- yesterday and he said.
We it's really amazing that even since we started looking for these Marines a year ago many have died so there really catching them.
At the detailing their life and trying to honor them before they cute guy Alan at this sister graced.
-- Jennifer thank you so much for sharing that with us you know every now -- man good things happen and we can all stand back and be quite proud.
Thanks Jennifer and race off to the ceremony right now.
Okay we're gonna and I take a break and -- -- -- back and talk about the Iranian -- section sanctions that are -- again in the next few days and what that means for us.
For the Iranians and for the future of nuclear weapons in the Middle East.
I welcome back to death pantry -- not a great advantage of this show is that you get -- -- -- -- us know what you're thinking.
Those were asking the expert you're weighing in on the conversation as well.
We've got to really have gotten a lot so we have to really superior and terrific comments -- share with you.
-- Thomas -- map the original one the new one he says in his opinion there's no leadership in the White House that we've lost respect in the eyes of the world.
And that we can expect that countries like Syria and others -- continue to really take advantage of the situation.
You know that this is so hard gonna tell us paying them that some -- -- that they have our administration's.
A whole policy foreign policy doctrine -- to lead from behind.
And we have seen that and it sounds terribly effective way of leading and it's certainly guitar game.
Your group of military.
-- mad men and women in the military leading from behind -- not a compliment in fact that's usually.
The last place they expect their leaders to be.
I also want to read a comment from -- -- he says he travels 300 days a year.
You know.
You should really get a life but anyway.
And he says that you could think that he would've gotten used to the onerous TSA rolls that have nothing to do with making us safer and said.
He feels mostly annoyed and violated -- gonna tell you are really did it for me but in the last two weeks Henry Kissinger Nobel laureate.
Secretary of state the man who opened relations with China have the first arms control agreements with the Soviet Union.
Brought peace to the Middle East he is an almost -- -- -- He went through TSA security.
-- -- -- wheelchair and I almost at a strip search on him and now at what point does a man like.
That present a threat to the United States senate the same time.
As as congress Marsha Blackburn Hussein we're -- we do have this illusion that we're safe.
But in fact people like that are being harassed while you wonder who else is getting through is if your focus in on a 100% of the people.
There's nobody that's getting that focus that they probably need and John Kirk if you're traveling 300 days a year.
God bless you and I -- -- on your vacation you're not using your frequent flier miles to travel even more.
Now we'll talk about -- run.
And the Iranian nuclear program people -- -- has for the last decade how do you stop Iran's nuclear program there's an organization called the foundation for the defense of democracy.
And -- democracies and they have been working tirelessly in the last couple of years to come up with a program.
That short of bombing Iran letting Iran get the bomb can stop -- -- and Jonathan chance there is joining us he's going to tell us about all day.
The sanctions and embargoes and things they -- in in the next three or four days what's going on with Iran sanctions nuclear weapons Johnson.
Well hi Casey good to see you well basically -- that -- seen is that diplomacy -- run its course we've heard a little bit about these computer viruses that have been inserted in the Iranian nuclear program they've been uncovered.
And so work I think we're sort of rounding third in terms of understanding.
How much time we have left to stop this Iranian nuclear program and I think the world has basically.
Come around to the US thinking on this of course the US has been out front.
And imposing sanctions thanks -- leadership from congress and the administration following suit.
And so we've gone after the refined petroleum.
Sector we've gone after the Islamic revolutionary guard corps.
He went after a technology.
In the banking sector called swift which I think is as -- made -- an impact.
But now on top of that we've got a European embargo that's about to come into place.
As well as a deadline for the United States were able to begin to impose sanctions against countries that are not working with us.
Two to stop.
He beat him portable or the export oil from Iran.
To countries around the world so this is all coming to ahead right now the Europeans have -- it very clear that there aren't there is now full embargo.
And then on top of that they're -- they're preventing the insurance.
The ships that are carrying that oil and then again I think we may begin to see some penalties imposed by the United States.
A racist if you want cameras doing at dash a tanker is -- -- -- -- -- -- It's gets -- nine and a high seas heading to export it doesn't have insurance what happens how does that stop the tanker.
Well it doesn't necessarily stop the tanker but you have a whole business of insurance and reinsurance that ensures that.
-- you know if something were to happen -- this tanker which is filled with tens of millions of dollars worth of black gold.
If anything were to happen that it would be the liability the Iranians -- they would have no recourse.
And so it becomes a much more risky business for them to even put that oil on the high seas.
And silly it's one more deterrent for the -- -- I should also know that the Iranians have been very good about about -- flagging their ships.
And renaming their shifts so that it's harder to identify.
You know the ships that belong to them that's carrying a Ronnie and oil so they've been incredibly duplicitous have -- has been out front trying to identify these these ships.
But the -- -- continue to try to find workarounds.
And by the way they found a number a number of countries that are working with them I would call them extra territorial bankers -- people were providing them cut outs.
And we know that they exist I think that hopefully will begin to see the United States cracked down the countries that are helping Iran circumvent these sanctions because again.
Without these sanctions -- you know playing playing out in the without them taking their full course.
There's a chance that the Iranians get that nuclear weapon and if and when that happens -- got -- terrible choices.
One at the Iranians continue to threaten world security now with the most powerful weapon in the world.
Or you see an attack against Iran whether by Israel the United States or western coalition.
None of those are good -- so we see that sanctions really the last best hope.
To -- this program.
However -- factor.
Well we're beginning to see that they are affected.
And and it's not to say that they're going to actually work.
Having them work means that the hear Ryan say uncle you -- -- coming -- leader of Iran saying okay guys.
We give up -- -- you know we're gonna let the IE come in and dismantle these nuclear programs.
-- we can say is first of all we see you know I -- a precipitous drop in the price of oil over the last several weeks because of debt crises in the eurozone.
A flat lining economy in China.
Overall global slowing of the economy which obviously -- -- good news for us here in the United States.
But certainly it's it's lessening the demand on what was a very tight oil market.
And so we're hearing right now that first of all that the price of -- dropping.
You know by a good amount and then.
Near the Iran -- are going to have a drop in exports of anywhere between twenty to 30%.
This is huge because oil makes up the majority did very large majority of the -- -- and budget every year then on top of that you've got countries that have just impose this embargo which is going to drop it further.
And the saudis quite frankly are also flooding the market making sure that oil can reach some of these countries to make this a little bit easier.
There are of course some waivers out there with some countries that have applied for countries are having a tougher time economically.
United States and has granted those waivers and I think that's actually to a certain extent undercutting our effort especially because the saudis are flooding that market.
They were -- we're seeing is the fact that there are tankers that are sitting out its senior running -- are on able to sell oil.
This is unthinkable when you think about the way that the oil market has been so tight over the last X number of years this is good news it means the writings are feeling the pain.
And I think it's one of the reasons why David at least agree to get back to the negotiating table course.
Those negotiations have failed.
And he writings are looking for an exit and really this has become a a race it's about how quickly we can see these sanctions really bite and really cripple the -- economy.
-- how quickly the running instance in those centrifuges and figure out a way to put a nuclear warhead on an Iranian missile.
Yeah I think it's always interesting to point out when you have this discussion about Iran nuclear weapons the price -- out.
That that's how the Reagan President Reagan -- of the Cold War that's how he brought the Soviet Union really to its knees was with the price of our joint.
Differently but the same failure -- -- Reagan went to the saudis he asked the saudis to pump oil.
The price of oil went from.
Forty dollars a barrel to eighteen dollars a barrel within a matter of months and it left the Soviet Union without the money it needed.
To pay for its own -- just so what you're implying -- is that where they have several month period of time.
-- -- -- and government will be so desperate that they'll come to the negotiating table or do you think something even.
Bigger might happen -- an Iranian people go to the streets.
Well first saw you would know better than anybody about what the Reagan administration did in and I think you knew it was a -- master stroke and sort of -- history of economic warfare.
We're certainly seeing a replay of that on and on and on another level I I do think however it's more you know we're finding that there are players on the world stage that are less eager.
To help.
And so it's making a little bit harder it's a global oil market now and so I think that's one of the factors here at at play.
But in terms of what the final outcome is I mean certainly we love to see the -- relinquish this nuclear program and say OK guys.
We're done this is too much pain were feeling it at home and we don't wanna go through this anymore.
I don't believe that this regime the state sponsor of terror since 1983.
Is going to be terribly eager to capitulate here.
And so yeah I do believe that ultimately having the people of Iran rise up if you study your your -- history.
You know that the buzz -- -- class the merchant class the middle class of Iran when they team up.
-- middle class clerics to express frustration that's generally.
The right combination for revolution in our country.
Here's the problem.
We had an opportunity in 2009.
After Mahmoud Ahmadinejad is rigged election that brought him to the presidency for a second term.
Hundreds of thousands of people came out into the streets of Iran was called the green movement.
And it was eighty.
This administration did nothing the world stood by and allow these people to be beaten tortured raped.
Murdered and and and basically it it just took the wind out of the sails of this green movement.
Ultimately do we want to see is this green movement find its legs again.
Because it really what we're talking about here with preventing this nuclear program you know I -- we can we can say only so many times -- -- TV.
It's not so much that Iran gets a nuclear weapon.
It's that this regime in Iran gets a nuclear weapon remember that these guys sponsor Hamas the sponsor has -- They've been involved in the insurgency in Iraq you've been involved in the the war in Afghanistan.
This is a very very bad actor and get having a weapon in the hands of this regime is about as scary as anything that you could think up.
OK one final -- quick question how much time to rehab.
We don't know you know every week we hear different -- -- -- from different people.
A lot of people are saying that unfortunately this is going to coincide somewhere around the election.
-- here in the United States which is something that President Obama does not want because -- he obviously doesn't want the Israelis.
To have Q I get involved in intervention right around the time he's looking get elected.
Making it difficult decision for him fully understand that it's probably somewhere in in a matter of months not years and obviously that that that you can hear that clock ticking.
Louder and louder every day.
Okay -- -- -- answer the Foundation for the Defense of Democracies talking about something that's going to happen.
But for a fourth of July which -- very serious and severe sanctions a whole another round.
Coming from the Europeans and the United States affecting oil tankers insurance companies and the banking system thanks so much for explaining.
Thank you Kate -- okay thank you now are gonna turn.
To a topic which really will make all the -- we talked about this this afternoon irrelevant because if the United States has energy independence.
Who cares what happens in the Middle East.
Who cares what happens with -- who cares because the United States not only can declare.
Energy independence from this most dangerous unstable part of the world but we can revive the American academy at a guy has come up with this idea -- -- alone.
But he's really good at explaining and it's Chris Chris -- thank you so much for joining us.
And you are by training and by background here -- -- comments -- a business guy.
Producing an opportunity to get the United States off Arab or else I shirt and this is this overbought this -- -- -- -- like better explain how this is.
Such an easy thing to talk about because for once it's good news so we've got to have to be real big pieces of good.
The first just to give you a little background the US.
Up for a production of four yes production of oil peaked in 1970 and it's been downhill ever -- a ten million barrels in 1970.
Down to that five million barrels a day.
In 2000 and we're running out of warm welcome because we were depleting herald reserves right now we've got that shale oil that we've always known was there but was always too expensive to get -- ally domains are onsite -- brought oil -- -- -- just like the fracking that you talk about -- usually talk about natural gas.
Well fracking for oil started about 2008.
And it's since then our oil production is grown in about 15% a year.
And we estimate that by the year 20/20 will surpass our peak production of 1970.
But that means for you and me is instead of -- instead of importing 60% of our oil.
We'll import about 20% of our oil.
And we think that passed when he when he he could get so good that by 2030 we can and oil imports except for our friendly neighbor Canada right altogether.
Okay -- you're talking about however there's also a natural gas revolution -- How I met him that's just terrific so what you've got is oil which we obviously fight wars over.
And that's all the sudden -- -- be produced right here in the United States and then you've got natural gas which can this deep places displace coal.
As -- be leading -- production source of electricity.
-- they've got these two forces working together not since the Internet in the 1990s.
Have we had such an industrial revolution take place.
Right before our eyes and hardly anyone's talking about a year.
And is this where -- -- -- -- that well we're going to.
Give my licenses drill baby drill Sarah Palin talked about it is that telling where we are in the drilling process then this is.
-- -- -- -- -- -- -- and almost all of this is not the controversial offshore drilling it's places like North Dakota.
Eagle for -- on Texas and new -- assailant Wyoming.
So it's mostly on populated -- some like the fracking that's taking place in Pennsylvania first.
So the good news is there's plenty of oil right -- without risking an oil spill in the gulf.
There's plenty of oil -- -- places where there's hardly any inhabitants so that's those two things make this a terrific source of oil for the next twenty years.
Our guys getting kind of tired that I mean this is that we're hearing our national security service I was with General David Petraeus Monday night -- at a meeting -- Washington and we were talking and someone asked -- what do you think it's -- -- biggest threat base -- threat and biggest opportunity for the United States going forward.
And he said the biggest opportunity going -- -- is right here at home and saying exactly where you were saying that the United States is sitting.
The biggest deposits of oil and natural gas -- any region and the world and as long as we exploited exploited quickly it allows us.
The ability to get out of the middle of the Middle East sending them at least -- like the godfather right well there outlets you know I mean he's just you don't -- -- -- outlet trotted out kid rock and -- backhand I mean we keep getting.
After -- and that is what really happened like that that are part of this story the second chapter.
Is that because there's going to be so much oil in the United States the relative price of oil in the United States forces for example brand -- or Saudi Arabia.
Will be lower by about 101520.
Dollars a barrel.
What that means is that refineries in the United States will have a huge competitive advantage -- refineries in South America in Europe in Asia.
So for the first time last year in sixty years since the forties.
We actually exported we're net exporters of refined products -- -- gasoline especially diesel fuel and jet fuel.
This can be the next iPhone -- Boeing aircraft the next it's really successful manufacturing export story -- the united.
Okay just to family -- -- -- -- you know we've been reading.
And hearing about -- personally in our lives experience sane American jobs are going overseas manufacturing jobs are going overseas.
But if we have the ability to make this stuff at home runs and what -- -- of -- -- -- need special government subsidies or anything else what we need is for folks to get out of the way and just let the free market.
It take its its natural place.
But the oil is being -- we need the pipelines to get the oil to refineries.
We need we need export licenses to get the stuff out of here.
And this could be really a multi multibillion dollar industry -- -- -- friendly neighbors have -- -- in Canada where do we stand where -- Keystone Pipeline.
And oil coming from candidates -- -- well.
-- -- of this it shouldn't be a democratic or Republican issue it totally makes sense for Canada which exports.
Almost all of its oil because it doesn't he's been -- And it exports 90% of it to the United States we want to keep that come.
We don't want to say well we're not sure we want a pipeline.
From very strategic standpoint we want to -- to Canada if you build it we will come.
And and so I think that.
The Obama administration's made a mistake by being somewhat ambivalent about a Canadian to Canada to North America to the United States -- -- -- well and end up happening I certainly our economics got to drive that decision it's one I certainly hope so and two I think so.
Either the Obama administration if -- reelected should see the light because it just doesn't make added that oil will be drill.
If you don't want the oil drilled or not to do something else because it'll either it'll be drilled leadership here or shipped to Asia.
So clearly it's in our economic and strategic interest of the chipped it.
About why you lower prices of energy the United States being the energy have what does that do -- -- Middle -- -- Arab or out and you know thank goodness it makes it so much less important.
So all of the sudden we don't have to worry about which dictator is ruling which country in war.
You know god forbid which which country we need to send arms to.
So -- just think about it OPEC controls a lot of the oil but not.
Less than half of our imported oil comes from -- Outside OPEC is that's Middle East Arab or -- -- -- doesn't include -- -- no rests -- a member of -- but Venezuela for example is so if you think not bad guys but guys are there hasn't really Aaron yeah right certainly have other interests other than our home.
So on the other hand we've got Mexico and Canada that are -- exporters in other friendly nations like Norway that we could exported even if we pull exports down only 15%.
We could get all 15% if we want it to from Canada Norway and Mexico.
So what we have enough fans are -- domestic or out or -- US Canada.
Mexican or -- had to deal with our own requirements we will we might have when he twenty -- have had enough left over that we export to the rest of the world.
You know what we'll export to the rest of the world is refined product we we want export crude in the fact -- that little known fact it's against the law for you you know its its export crude to other countries.
-- -- and that's right you -- print -- out of the ground in the United States gets refined in the united and an adventure you really can't take it out of the ground in the united now and send it to move anyway right to China.
Yeah and and and that only makes economic sense because we use every drop that we produce and of course much more.
But the big game changer is the fact that for the first time we can refine oil much cheaper than -- the second part of the refining isn't just -- oil.
It's cheap natural gas natural gas is the second largest expense after oil and refining gasoline and and other things that can we export natural gas we -- and that's coming that's a longer term in the form of liquefied natural gas but that takes a -- lot of infrastructure investment you -- -- of these giant tankers.
And it's it's pretty dangerous.
But I think we'll get there over the next 10 Pacific -- -- picture -- your finance -- -- sandy capital management you know this line of work.
When you say that it has the ability to be the next.
Industrial revolution right technology revolution -- through.
All -- and what does that mean sure well it's real exciting one of the best parts of that because you -- try to get.
I I think it's good -- retained after -- everything out.
But but it what's interesting is you know in 1989.
Nobody expected ten years later the Internet to just be taking off.
You know five years ago nobody expected US oil production domestically to really take off one way and in not only does that mean less imports but what it means is that our refineries.
Which -- these dying kind of beasts.
Are now all of a sudden the envy of the world because -- cheap oil cheap natural gas so if you can imagine.
Oil refiners expanding capacity hiring tens of thousands of additional people and much better.
Our our balance of trade will go and much more favorable position will be importing less and also will be exporting.
Gasoline diesel fuel jet.
Okay now I'm I'm not there are recent college graduate -- all the recent college has the brackets are desperate to find jobs -- they all think that they're gonna go work on Wall Street right.
Those days are probably over -- so at least what what what advice would you give young people the day -- lot of work Tobago and Cuba.
You know it's time to roll up your sleeves and enjoy the manufacturing Renaissance in the United States in May not seem sexy to work at an oil refinery.
Work at a factory that produces electronics but we're good at that and so you know that's coming and of course.
Your your college graduates on May not be a lot harder it is an -- I have four daughters -- -- -- -- So she may not be a line worker but she could be an engineer.
She could design the product she could supervise the line so it's actually kind of exciting it's like growing up in the forties and fifties when you got a nice high paying manufacturing -- Okay what Christopher percent to 8% to capital management.
And who you could come Imus show to talk about foreign policy and we would end up getting employment -- I think about it until all of until all of -- -- -- just having your kids graduate.
And they're sleeping on the sofa and there's timeout I can't find -- -- you have just heard.
That the place they ought to do is a manufacturing sector and the energy sector.
Who true that you could come for job advice to -- country there is there -- got to thank you so much for adjourning as well thank all of you for joining us on a whirlwind.
Tour of the flashpoints around the planet I -- are some of the leading experts in the field the kind of we will never -- on other shows and we bring you guys have been discussions to every -- fun as my one of my children have not.
Our policy is actually pretty down and -- But we managed to make -- country a fun place to spend your -- so that's it for today.
We're going to be back in seven -- time you will no -- have to deal with national security crazies all around the world for the seven days.
You're -- trying to figure -- -- and next week.
On the fourth of July you'll be here alone because the rest of us are going to be celebrating.
The independence of the United States of America and as we've just heard the energy independence -- -- there.
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