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And that is what it looks like when people have jobs in the manufacturing sector building things that people need exporting them helping the economy grow.
And this is power play and I'm Chris -- -- and it turns out there was not enough of that kind of stuff going on last month as we saw the sharpest decline in the key manufacturing index that we've seen.
Sense of the month right after September 11 when the bottom fell out of the US economy and at the lowest rate since the end technical and of the recession.
What does this mean what does this mean of course for the election because that's what you want Internet that's what you want to know who's going to win the election and that's what we try to suss out every day for you.
And let me tell you something there that.
We are very lucky in Washington this week because John Roberts.
It is with us and we are we are very lucky to have John I don't know about that global -- after this we'll see after this but I loved.
In Washington and he -- any opportunity I get you -- -- would say.
-- -- -- -- -- -- -- I love it here you know spent ten years here and it's it's great to be back and -- particularly great -- to be on your front for a city that's Internet he knows what he's talking about the election.
And so here's the thing and this is what were trying to figure out.
And the economy we've seen a cycle play -- -- for him and you try to figure that the economy no no -- you stop we did we'd be totally -- as a nation as a hero to me and the Internet here to try to figure this out but.
What we've seen in two consecutive years was in the first part of the year.
Happy that -- the recovery may be taking hold things are getting better I was beginning to look Dicey for Romney because his signature issue was kind of going away and we've given it's like the weather in Florida you know if you don't like it wait a minute this -- -- going to change exactly so now we're seeing the same drama play out which is.
The green shoots of spring -- a little dusty in the summer time they'll give us give us your 30000 foot view it's gonna.
I really worry about the economy and it and I have been for a long time because it it is never really gotten on its feet again and now what's happening.
Indeed in Europe and what has been happening in Europe I think really -- could sow the seeds of some malcontent in the economy we were talking about this.
The special report -- affiliate -- -- tonight.
And the fact that US manufacturing.
Is now hurting because of what's happening in -- I think is really troubling side.
And we're talking about that the market the other day it like what was going on in Europe so was up 200 points and yesterday didn't really like it and so was down nine and today it's probably going -- like -- even -- you know I mean the over all.
Story here is that things are not good in Europe by any stretch of the imagination ages no Gretchen no and I'm working on a story.
Debt spending here in the United States as well.
And we are recorded just very learned people center for responsible budget.
They are saying we are headed in that exact same direction with the level of debt that we've got now.
It's possible to solve it.
But the way that things are going now with -- died in the level of detail that needs to you for voters understand where he's going.
For Obama being -- -- is is the center for responsible budget said.
Being too timid about the whole thing.
There's nothing really for voters to grasp on to.
Now when you talk about manufacturing.
This is particularly troubling for the economy added to couple stories last year I was gonna point out you did some great reporting out the field going to -- everywhere this -- was sort of like I love the way you used superlatives a percentage is -- well it's pretty it's pretty -- -- -- -- that they were very interest in stores because we had gone out to.
Manufacturing operations high tech manufacturing operations and western Michigan.
Which you wouldn't necessarily think is doing well Wisconsin which you it was -- actually just north.
Where you wouldn't think that things were particularly robust when it comes to manufactured.
That these were entities.
That were engaged in high tech manufacturing a computer based manufacturing.
-- and stuff they were looking for employees as one company that we went to Gentex in western Michigan was looking for 18100 points.
Another company in the one in Germantown was looking for a few hundred employees.
Now with the slowdown in Europe but less people in your buying things that are made in America.
That whole business now -- beginning to slow down American manufacturing.
Looked like it was in arrests -- -- look like it could be the driving force of the economy going forward.
The big question now is where is it that.
You know there's there's -- there's another interesting thing here sort of -- Heisenberg effect where you have the economy affects the presidential race.
But the presidential race affects the economy too because we have these two very very different visions for the future.
And that's those uncertainty.
Into the economic process because if you have capital that you're thinking about investing.
You might say this election we had seventeen weeks ago to the election let's just wait and see -- -- Obama and then we'll decide let's also wait.
And see if there's a service plan for spending in addressing the deficit and in the -- might mcginnis into the media center for work she responsible -- and she's.
She's facts -- she's one of the most knowledgeable people like this mean she's down the level of detail that none of us could even begin.
To comprehend and she's bipartisan she's worked with both sides.
And and she has said that there is a real risk of a flight of capital from the United States if the debt deficit levels stay as they are the fortunate thing for the United States right now.
-- everybody else so much right if we look good by comparison exactly but it's not a great place to be looking good by comparison.
Is not where the United States wants to be.
The United States would love to be.
Where it was back in.
In mid 2000 remember where they're talking about my goodness what's gonna happen if we go to the treasury market because in fifteen years we're going to retire that debt where we'll have no doubt that there was that plan to pay it -- -- -- fifty.
Well there's no worry about that right wherever treasury market for.
The foreseeable future.
But she's worried about a flight of capital from the United States somewhere else and if that happens we're really.
She gets there that's you can say it is -- on the Internet that's that that's totally allowed.
So as we when when you.
Talk to folks and you have you have the luxury you have the opportunity.
To go around the country a good bit and -- -- like whether it's western Michigan are where wherever you go and you talk to people.
Are we frustrated or were which which of those adjectives as a better description by your way of high.
I think -- both are probably applicable people who don't have jobs are frustrated people who are trying to make ends meet are frustrated people who look at our our budget.
And think that you know how much is it about 30%.
Of every dollar goes to debt service that's as much as sure as much as forty much as -- And then when you look at the CBO projections that by 2035 we're going to be it debt will be at 200%.
The economy and then and then the models don't even work after that we that is untenable so I think there's a lot of frustration among people -- -- see their -- -- -- that nothing's happening.
In the government and to solve this crisis in Anderson.
What are we would -- -- we -- here what was the other work for a work who are there are they were straight literally traded I I think both amused.
I -- at the top of this.
I'm very worried about the economy I'm not a chicken little dangerous in -- well but I really think there's a chance.
Of the -- -- and I had this argument with my financial stress I think there's more likelihood data in three months the Dow will be 111000 that will be thirteen.
I don't know are you crazy crisis with a friend of the drugs stuff that's what they call we actually but I remember recognize it was December of 1987 and I -- a guy who was trying to -- hey you know.
Go leveraged into the market because the markets -- -- nothing but up and had a bad feeling about it.
And it crashed three months later there and -- -- listen to your gut and not not not not that I am.
Any kind of procedure it is thing like that but I just I got a bad since about.
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We're gonna take a break but when we come back we've got lots of goodies for you Michael Barone is out there and he's going to help break down the state of the race we're -- look at some swing state polls we're gonna have a discussion about who that -- might pick as his running mate we're gonna do that we'll also talk about Mitt Romney headed to Israel.
And whether or not he can establish some foreign policy cred.
At this pivot point in the election it's going to be great so you should stick around.
Florida senator Marco Rubio Ohio senator Rob Portman Virginia governor Bob McDonnell.
New Hampshire senator Kelly I.
And Wisconsin congressman Paul Ryan that's.
Possible short list for Mitt Romney as he considers who he should take as -- is shotgun Ryder.
In his quest for the presidency.
And this is power -- welcome back now I told you we would have Michael Barack.
But we do not yet have my courtroom but we do have thank goodness -- -- Nixon who is.
He is he's a man of the left key is -- radio host talk radio host on WP FW.
He's a good dude welcome back thank you and -- certainly capable of doing the the work to do okay absolutely really into their Laurel and Hardy but today -- the girl is gonna have to do with himself.
So here's the thing.
As we look at this in this let's let's start and talk about the shape of the race right now there -- a surprising poll from CNN.
They -- voters in fifteen battleground states and there are really fifteen battleground states.
But they include states like Arizona.
That Mitt -- not going to win our.
Or that Barack -- not gonna win and an up and Missouri which also is not released Wednesday but they include these states -- Having -- Republican states and they're probably -- this -- a little bit but it comes and it Romney 5143.
At at the very worst -- -- even dropping out those two red states of Arizona and Missouri.
He's still tied or slightly leading.
A not a bad place for challenger to be at this point now this -- heating up.
One thing that Romney has that he can do to change the discussion Garland is two when he picks is running.
Taking off the blue -- for a moment if Mitt Romney wants to win who should keep it.
You know I I really kind of thing.
Portman would be the guy that he would go list.
You know he did it take to embrace the elephant in the room the issue it immediately would go to rubio and the fact that he's Latino.
And I think.
Unless not discussed it the regarding that is that he's a Cuban Americans which is a very distinct culture culture from the overwhelming Mexican and Central American this -- culture that kind of makes up most of our our Latino electorate and I don't think that that cultural identification.
Would in any way he help help them out in -- didn't -- Bring more focus into the difference between into the policy difference on.
On immigration -- of millions it.
That's what -- -- four.
Now we have talked here before about.
Hispanic voters are not -- 71 Americans are different Mexican Americans are different Cuban Americans -- Puerto Rican Americans are I guess you don't have to say Americans mr.
Porter because they're America.
-- -- -- The the the deal.
Four rubio is also this -- and let's take a look at this.
Who's got the net worth.
Roll call -- -- interest in story today and they looked -- they took the list and you wanna talk about the haves and the have -- on potential Romney running -- Rob Portman is sitting on at least -- minimum six point 71 million and -- And Marco Rubio is at negative 400000.
So he has a lot of debt.
He's got those things.
May be I think with -- regardless of salvadorans vs Cubans.
Maybe he's not ready yet maybe review is not ready yet to face the national scrutiny if you don't have money in the bank.
Running for vice president and doing that stuff maybe maybe break.
Yeah -- the other thing we've got to considers this the fact Portman is a very wealthy and now I would say that in his you know probably wealthy but he's got you can look at it he's he's been in relative to have.
Relative to these guys got six point 71 million dollars more than idea.
You're doing better -- review right I guess you're right 40000 dollars richer than Marco Rubio and that's the -- looked exactly but I think that the the other thing is this let's face it a couple of rich guys makes an easy target it for certain people.
In this economic environment with the whole you know economic disparity things so that would certainly create another and we should also point out that there -- intensely white.
-- -- like there -- like our plate away they're like real life creating and their from Ohio no more than trial that's helpful but you're right they are short of a the two of them together there is say -- -- -- the duplicative.
Effect when you get the two of them together.
They've been moderate Republicans essentially sort of establishment moderate Republicans.
The so if you're gonna reach down the list I know a lot of Smart people let's say keep.
You Ryan Kelly I -- in New Hampshire woman.
She's got a good story but of course there's the Internet knows first term -- new.
Maybe you want somebody who's been vetted -- season Portman has the advantage he's been through this is serving in the Bush Administration.
Serving the first President Bush serving in the house he's been he's been through the grinder and if there were troubles they wouldn't shut up.
And there are those who believe such as myself that if Tim Pawlenty had stayed in the presidential race he might very well and -- -- -- -- now -- we're talking about Hogan tour indeed for VP I think don't know ability brings a couple of things.
Number one he's a very -- aren't right and number -- he comes across.
Very well -- the middle class Garland Nixon is correct.
T paw is in great want to keep your -- -- not only just because the stories have been floated out there recently but when you talk to Romney people they really love them because he is really going to bat for them and done everything he's done utmost for their highest.
At every turn so they've been really fun of him and they I'm sure could see him.
Filling that role as they go forward.
Our Internet we have to take -- -- elements and we thank you very much all right I've been doing the work of two men Garland next and we thank you have a have -- great -- -- -- Happy happy Independence Day what are you gonna do you -- much firmer -- -- program.
This is something see this average dutrow.
As for the guys I was Richard Parker reviews that have a list okay we're gonna take a quick break when we come back we will have Michael -- we are now told we will also have Bob Cusack.
You'd like him a -- so you're in -- Internet so stick around.
That is Mitt Romney and Benjamin Netanyahu Mitt Romney wants to be.
The president of the United States Benjamin Netanyahu is.
The prime minister of Israel -- Mitt Romney thinks it may be Benjamin Netanyahu can help him achieve his goal.
And maybe Netanyahu thinks that Romney can help him achieve -- as it relates to.
Foreign policy protocols for the United States this is power play.
And Mitt Romney has just announced that he is going to go to Israel.
And we were talking in the previous segment about vice presidential picks you know who haven't given Israel a couple weeks ago Rob Portman maybe do little advance work for his -- -- to say it.
Let's talk about how foreign policy might -- -- let's talk about Jewish voters let's talk about Iran all that fun stuff.
We've got at at last Michael Barone.
My my former colleague my friend from the Washington examiner.
He is also -- -- fellow at the American enterprise institute and he is.
The principal editor of the almanac of American politics which you should all have because you are like -- like to know all that stuff.
-- -- well.
Nice to -- Okay and many and -- -- the he you know he drove right to around -- going to Israel and the Jewish thought the real -- there that that he's concerned with -- or Christian evangelicals.
We're -- -- strongly pro is.
I -- -- told the Internet all the good news Bob Cusack is here he is also is also a pretty big deal because he's the managing editor at the -- Which is the.
But only when Michael I think that's very important end and you look at the Jewish vote in certain states like Florida and Nevada that's key units -- about 5%.
In both those states and and that -- Could make the difference.
Yes all right self.
This is it a tricky bit and if in fact -- was -- Portman who did as I was reminded.
By Brad Blake and of this and -- -- about this.
Portman was an advance man he did advance for George H.
Bush and now with the advance man does in.
Politics is he goes and has conversations with people that the principal can't have that people who are really in the -- of the campaign can't have so there's I can imagine Portman was over their target Netanyahu and say this what we want this the kind of meeting we want.
This where we can do it Netanyahu says there can't do this but I'll meet you the Wailing Wall and we'll do this you've come to the private residence but not the data that -- -- does that make -- looked better to you in terms of who Romney -- there.
Well I think Portman is just a very congenial guy from Romney's point of view he's person that shares the same outlook he's got.
Sort of the same background I -- -- described Romney important ticket is doubles and Noah.
-- you know that's French not French but sometimes that's an advantage we think about the Clinton gore ticket in 1992.
To relatively young people from southern.
Backgrounds with reputations as moderate they really reinforced each other and sent a message that that proved to be prevailing one and in 92 so I think.
With Romney business background.
You know problem -- for.
Partners had more experience -- the federal government that might be a complimentary ticket like -- 92 Clinton gore you look at their web site.
He's not very exciting but I think that goes into their -- say well we're not flashy -- -- can't -- great speeches but we're substantive.
And I think that Portman is it is -- watching inside and around under bush a budget chief.
House member but you know that we've seen things that Democrats actually liked -- liked him and any personally.
They won't -- Is he's he's genial fellow here's what Greg king says Greg thanks as Ronnie must be must show how US interest can be served by his policies in the Middle East.
And how the air winner can be contained going to Israel is not enough we must articulate -- deeper understanding.
Of the Middle East and Obama.
So the challenge for Romney as he talks about foreign policy is that -- closest he's come really he didn't serve as a missionary France.
He has some international business expenses got.
Friends overseas but he doesn't have a portfolio on this.
What what is he knew how far can he go.
Well I think you you know he's got a challenge because he's had -- foreign policy experience than any candidate that.
I can think of going back except Bill Clinton of of the governor of Arkansas in 1992.
Or Barack Obama is so -- -- you know he's given some speeches he talks pretty convincingly about foreign policy.
He hasn't actually done foreign policy right.
You know I think that.
That some of the Republicans want to say well Obama wasn't prepared in 2008 that's a moot point -- as far as most voters are concerned obviously he's had for years of experience so.
And when he gave that speech.
But some -- -- that was the life.
What do you want from me now rent but didn't he I think they made it a big mistake in not going to Israel and in fact that Obama has.
-- right on innocent person as president he was there indeed fascinating to -- -- Democrat so -- Gary Ackerman from new York and he said.
I've been urging them to go and -- -- them because it looks too radical.
And so it was Smart of Romney to get there before he had to get there before there was -- depending on what the polls since in South Florida we're showing.
They had had to get there.
I want to ask you guys about this whole I want to ask both of you about this poll this new CNN poll that shows drumming up 5143.
Now I will.
Pour in in the fifteen swing states and -- -- stipulate again.
They're not fifteen swing states in this poll is going to be skewed Republican because it includes.
-- -- and Missouri which that'll Barack Obama in gonna win and our red states so so that -- it but that look.
It's like a pretty competitive race.
It looks like competitive race Chris and it's is sort of goes contrary to what we saw on the NBC Wall Street Journal poll last week which said that -- what they considered to be the closest states you have to.
Mitt Romney by a similar -- like it indicates to me that.
You know there's a considerable amount of flux in the selection we've tended to judge this likely 2004.
Election when we had very steady voting -- -- for a period of ten years -- inside a narrow and we've had doesn't deviation in a much wider band over the last several years so I think that our assumption that we know which states are -- which states -- move which states are purple.
May turn out to be subject to revision.
And -- authority has been.
For example -- Wisconsin.
Within himself and isn't that actually about that in these days I thought by now that Romney's good state best swings data beat Florida Virginia.
That those that those -- goes to be swinging back just due to the red and he'd be struggling in places like Pennsylvania.
Wisconsin and Michigan but he's doing pretty well up there he's having a hard time in Virginia he's having a hard time in Florida but the trend seems to be his friend in the Rust Belt.
Yeah the military and the midwest is way to looking right now but things can change dramatically mean this is a jump ball was going to be decided by.
-- things -- -- the economy I think debate's going to be huge.
Yeah and and Michael you talk about this before when there's thirty seconds each -- -- -- on these debates is.
Does the strategy you see from Romney now this sort of ninja -- in the shadows come out and strike and then go back when he gets to the debates is he going to be able.
Do that with Obama.
I think he is a -- on the Republican debates that he was willing to.
Hit some pretty tough knockout punch kind of punches there he seems sort of polite and dissident but when he has to come through with.
Tough negative he's capable of doing he and -- did not like each other.
Mills that -- -- and remember that Florida debate with Gingrich went when Romney was on the ropes.
Romney came up aren't you one and and the rest is history.
If it -- good gentlemen we thank you have a great Independence Day thank you for being here.
And yes happy birthday America happy birthday all of you out there we do we're so happy that you share the day before with us.
-- you're taking off work and relaxing and doing all that fun stuff I won't be with you tomorrow I will be with a little power plays down at the pool eating some hot dogs doing all of that stuff it's going to be great fun very much looking forward to it.
Because the power's back on we have to go away now on the hunt with Jonathan -- waiting for you and now as we like to do every day we want to leave you the word from our friend -- -- of course -- hurt him I mean in the severe case of the triumph amend that -- this is an outright lie to fact check dot gore appears to quote.
We found no evidence to support the claim that Romney while it was still running Bain Capital ship American jobs overseas.
If you accuse a man of shipping jobs overseas because his company invests in companies that have.
Affiliates overseas and has a growth in jobs overseas and a growth and jobs here at home it isn't a negative.
But it's being called a negative it's -- being called -- shipping good jobs overseas this is simply not right.
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