Are we already in a recession?
Jobs stalling, stocks falling
- Duration 9:31
- Date Jul 7, 2012
Jobs stalling, stocks falling
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Another job that shocked the Dow tanking as unemployment stick an eight point 2% in June.
With only 80000 new jobs created and that's not all manufacturing shrinking.
Reeling in the service sector slowing.
Suffered all the double -- talk all we already knee deep in a new recession.
Hi everyone I'm Brenda -- that's is bulls and -- And the Bulls and Bears this week we've got Tobin Smith Gary B Smith Jonas Max Ferris.
A -- would podshow murder and Susan -- welcome everybody it taught -- we already.
In -- recession.
Yes we are -- for everything you mentioned above and policy at the look at where's the -- it's gonna pull us out of this look right now.
Things are bad -- dire sentiments down we also have consumer confidence it's down you could take your take guys housing and household balance sheet is decimated we are in a recession we never got out the last one.
And this thing's gonna continue for some time now -- -- -- -- -- Silicon Valley things look a little different out there don't I.
You know but they sure do and Todd the world is folly and we'll never get up -- -- this is a couple parts here -- -- look at where we are not a good shape and it could -- you know and it knows the feel like a recession -- whether exercise or not it it feels like a recession but there -- many parts the United States.
Silicon Valley IT the energy belt.
God knows DC New York etc.
That are not.
The bigger issue if you looked at the labor apart though.
Was it up almost 6% of the jobs came from business services and -- that about half were temporary job so guess what.
The -- I've ever seen.
People they're gonna hire are gonna I would tell you that don't know what their costs going to be -- don't know what it's gonna be six months and that's the thing has me worried well.
I'm Brenda looked at -- all the recessions for the last sixty years -- that's the kind of exciting guy I.
And I admire about how -- Yeah I -- LA couldn't got -- -- stuff going -- -- -- And -- we've never seen a double dip recession -- unless unemployment hits.
The the peak of the previous recession so in this case total unemployment including those people stop.
Looking for work -- -- at setter was about 16%.
Which course is extraordinarily hot.
Now we're back down off that -- you just saw the unemployment figure from up Friday about eight point 2% -- probably translates into about 13%.
Or sell we could go back there I mean you know Todd makes that the doom and gloom case for certain.
I am my my gut tells me we're just got a limp along sideways we won't get get there an airport there will not be a double dip recession.
A slow recovery or an actual recession.
Right and it's not time to -- panic button yet because there's a difference between.
Slow growth and we still do you have growth vs the stalled economy vs an actual recession so I still think we're still a ways away from an actual recession.
We you have slow growth it's been choppy in certain point it's come up -- come down.
Let's not forget we have had.
28 straight months of job growth in the private sector.
And I know it's it's not it's not we're pretty wanted to be but there are things that are looking good you know construction is continuing to be a -- strong spot.
I we're seeing how -- -- demand come back like there are small signs of a -- on the on the horizon there.
Well I you know I.
Only care about if -- -- our definition of recession which -- again.
Yeah consecutive quarters of negative growth if it feels like a recession people will not be spending Jonas.
Is that at bat well apparently Todd doesn't care about the official definition -- -- -- totally opposite of the Soviet Afghan people -- like it's always a good time it's always about it.
I'm not -- -- haven't -- interception for a long time however the concern is it's a little sluggish given that we're still running 88 artificial low tax regime to boost the economy so it's a little bit concerned how little jobs are being created with a low payroll tax -- a -- which a lot of people could myself I was gonna help firing.
We also of these other tax cuts all the bar so.
We need -- -- a little stronger than it is going into eventual tax increases or we will get another recession but it's not here yet and and other guests when we don't have all the panic button yet.
Yeah it's -- If it is all about jobs -- -- it because without jobs people don't have money they don't have confidence that Afghanistan.
And consumer spending is what fuels a recovery that's all right we're just not seeing the jobs we -- -- not only that -- net.
This and after -- the past six months 70% of all the jobs created in this country are being low income variety jobs and hospitality retail leisure.
There's a -- jobs they're fine but they're not going to sustain any type of economic recovery in this country so when -- start seeing GDP when you start seeing a growth rate it's dropping it continues to get lower.
-- starts -- household balance sheet just.
Decimated higher food -- sentiment is pork and this is gonna continue guys and it's not ending any time soon I hate to paint the daily glimpse -- -- -- fox viewers Brian where you guys but you know I'm right down.
You know well -- look at the -- -- just sort of bugs me a couple ways but.
The incident appeared to I was -- gonna make the point was gonna say what how we get the -- you realize we'd have to have 325000.
Job right up month.
For the next three months this is -- the next three years.
To get to you know that's 6% what everybody thinks is is what -- recoveries going to be.
And frankly after all look bad karma and all the horrible -- -- -- -- and it into our economy and finance and -- We are not getting there and -- we -- to have a Grand Slam and November and get all the growth people back in in the work and if your -- not that that may be really excited so I can't get -- exactly study on that as we're not gonna get that the worst attack us or not going to get that you're not gonna get at this Syria not had a good next year I can't it's still.
I have a theory be what what could turn it a continent around what could.
Bring us into a stronger recovery.
Well think about a -- think what turned the -- didn't really turn the economy accelerated the economy that no one saw coming.
The last go round which was sell my gosh almost twenty years ago.
Was it dawn of the Internet I mean no one said -- my gosh five years from now waiting to whatever was nice.
-- -- -- -- was going to be this Internet and it's gonna get pets dot com is gonna be a Google no one saw that coming just so I.
I'm sorry targets can't extrapolate the future based on the past and -- -- things like nano technology health care could take off there could be any number of things just by the way the last time you're brought and we were all they've invested a fallout shelter and the.
So I -- I pretty good there is a good thing they got odd as it comes in line yeah.
There are some good news for consumers.
And in this report -- you know app average hourly wages went up a little bit.
We're seeing gas prices come down so there will be a little bit of relief especially coming into the summer months when people do a lot of driving.
So eat you will see some things start to get a little bit better and you look at manufacturing jobs even though there has been at the very very.
Only on a margin declined.
-- we've already added 500000.
U manufacturing jobs and in this kind of economy that's a huge number -- to have a little bit of a pullback is not the end of the world at.
But -- you did mention that that really internationally.
There are some things that are just not under our control.
And that could be the thing that really does -- and terrorists -- We can't -- Europe not -- we -- we try to help them but they've got their -- about policies they've got their -- -- tax policies and a drag in the global economy down -- aren't just low lying and if we were stronger position to -- -- -- a little more -- -- but we need to export those countries to assume they're going to be a drag it's another one of the problems -- but you know you have my word against his second recession the -- -- already -- you know the last time we had -- -- recession started there was a regular Michigan started the next the greatest stock market -- next twenty years and they come as you can get out of even that terrible scenario scenario come -- -- senior state and of history when -- this I mean think about it we -- have the regulations that we have now.
He did have a tax implications of a fiscal -- we have to deal with look guys I mean I'm not.
But I'm saying in -- -- -- There was an entirely different times when years getting a -- B talks about nanotechnology and everything else.
Yeah but that's when onto -- Norris it was actually that wasn't -- I mean we're we're kind of people are villains now be delighted start your business that big yellow -- it -- yeah.
And you know -- his or her or you tell me tell me.
One necessary get a business under its watch an issue right now -- -- -- I.
I wanna know who is out there actually able to start a business and -- without the regulations -- having to worry about the extra taxes and they're actually going out and hiring.
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