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McConnell gives GOP 50-50 chance of winning Senate majority

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    Minority leader predicts 'very narrow' election

  • Duration 4:29
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Southern Republican -- in the senate speaking out about the Republican chances for winning control of the upper house.

Balance of power right down the senate Democrats heavy slim majority of 51 seats Republicans have 47 there are two independents -- Normally side with Democrats here's the Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell.

On his odds of becoming majority leader.

Sitting here today.

And looking at the landscape do you believe you'll be the majority leader next here 5050 I think it's going to be a very close a competitive.

Election.

There are a number of places where we have opportunities for pickups.

Not many places where we have much chance of losing a state.

I think in the end of the day we're gonna have a very narrow -- -- one way or the other.

Right what are the chances -- -- director of the center for politics University of Virginia sir good morning Sheila thanks for coming back to America's Newsroom good morning bill wonderful city is -- spot on.

Yes the senator McConnell is not just leader in the senate but.

He's an excellent political analysts he's -- this exactly correctly so his words are 5050.

I think it's going to be -- very close competitive election.

I think at the end of the day we will have a very narrow senate one way or the other I don't think that's going out on a limb -- Well it's not going out on the -- but remember that includes Republican gains Nebraska is an automatic.

I think Republican pick up democratic seat turning Republican.

But you've got basically.

Seven complete toss ups as of July now bill once we get into the general election.

We're gonna see which way the wind is blowing in each of these states will look first depressed because -- a coat -- gonna have a lot to do.

With which senate candidates win and those seven.

Pure tossup states.

And there another six states that are very close where it's leaning already one side or the other initiatives are not -- -- large let -- show our viewers the tossup states of which there are seven.

Florida Massachusetts Missouri Montana Nevada Virginia and Wisconsin.

Of those 72 -- here -- all of them are two or three.

Well if -- -- going to look at at two.

I would look at one Republican -- Massachusetts the seat of senator Scott Brown that's the toughest for Republicans the whole.

And then I would look at Missouri.

The seat of senator Claire McCaskill incumbent Democrat that's the toughest seat for Democrats the hole and then the -- kind of fall in between.

All right now the leans on our map.

Blue is Democrat red -- Republican we have three in each category they are.

-- -- New Mexico and Ohio leaning Democrat today and leading Republican Arizona Indiana and North Dakota.

Are these trickier -- him.

-- -- iron themselves out one winner.

-- well you know we we put him in the lead category because we expect a certain thing to have.

-- -- say presidentially and therefore we think they'll be some coat -- for the senate candidate.

You know there always surprises a small states a lightly populated state like North Dakota for example.

What that's a heavily Republican state bill you would think the Republican nominee for senate would win and I still cannot put a quarter.

On that bet that the Republican Rick berg will win but the Democrat Heidi -- camp is doing better than expected and again of people in North Dakota vote.

On the individual they split their tickets a fair amount.

Now go back to one of the other point you made their expand -- that just a bit.

What does it mean with Mitt Romney if he were to win in November.

If Mitt Romney wins I would bet five dollars -- dying right now that the Republicans would win a clear majority in the senate where majority has McConnell suggested it wouldn't be a big majority would be 5152.

Seats.

But nonetheless it's a majority you can operate the senate that way.

If President Obama wins a second term and Republicans take the -- And John Boehner -- Republicans hold on in the house.

What is government America look like cancer.

It looks like got gridlock with a capital G you know you can invest in all stocks that benefit from gridlock.

That we shall we Larry savage thanks to -- -- -- the University of Virginia Mitch McConnell director will -- in four months of -- right.

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