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Latest political news since we did our show yesterday afternoon on the Fox News Channel the latest news overnight was the Obama campaign announcing overnight.
That they -- the president has a new plan to extend the bush tax cuts for one year.
For people in the middle class not the upper income people.
It's a attempt by the president again to get out ahead of an issue -- Romney is on vacation and I -- Can't is this not gentlemen a sign of the Romney and it's -- the Obama campaign moving always doing stuff.
Gay marriage immigration whatever.
Their pro active and Romney is reactive.
Well but in politics.
Like in war keep maintaining the initiative is everything.
It's always better to be on the offensive than the defense base.
In the room and the Obama campaign keep setting the agenda.
-- raised the taxes you.
This isn't anything new but now because he is presently has the bully pulpit says we must do -- right away help the economy it's all part of the same thing.
Tax rich people give a tax break -- the -- now the obvious answer back would be.
All this is merely to cover up your taxes and health care which we now know you're doing the American people.
Which are taxing middle class people you're trying to -- that but since Republicans have refused to pick up the hammer.
That was given them by the Robert by Robert.
In that the court court decision right -- Obama has the offensive -- we will hear the same tired old rhetoric.
About he'll kill jobs you can't do this whatever as opposed.
To putting a new wedge on the right.
Doug why it why.
Why did the Romney campaigns so slow and ham handed at picking up on this -- well button to start.
With where -- left off.
Pat you're aware as are short -- -- -- that it took the Romney campaign.
To the roberts' decision that the mandate was -- tax.
So given that as they would have thought twice actually -- the reacted to it three times before that right saying it was a penalty and they were -- stop in.
What the Romney care plan was.
But the fact that it took them six days to get what was a logical way of serving bottom line of politics to.
If the Supreme Court says something.
Which is alternately favorable to your cause to whipped.
That the other guy wants to raise taxes.
And eroding and anti access jeopardy from goodness sake don't -- it's all about the fifth birdie obvious and right don't go back to the panel why why -- -- -- law.
-- what is I think Alice is a campaign.
That is daring to be cautious.
I think that's advice spoke yesterday.
And today and what you said on the news channel yesterday about a vision and they plan for the future are absolutely right.
But this is a campaign that is operating with I believe our hypothesis.
Fraught with Carolina.
Very -- out -- motive which is just make the election a referendum on the economy you win it.
There weren't meant to cut now let's figure that since we did the show last night I had the new battleground states poll.
Which we don't have to put on the screen but we will repeat it for the viewers.
All registered in the wheel well this is a -- alt key battleground states.
Among registered voters the president leads Romney 4745.
But if you look inside the poll.
Among likely voters has reversed Romney's ahead 4745.
For the president -- my first question.
That's close but.
And what's the difference between likely voters for our viewers likely voters and registered.
-- -- It is hard six months out to determine precisely who's gonna vote.
It's also cheaper to poll all voters than likely voters likely voters tend to skew more upscale and Republicans.
Hence we're we're seeing here which is they Romney -- someone.
So the bottom line is a lot of the polling that -- I see as professionals.
Uses very loose screens because it's cheaper.
To do what it's also tough early -- six months before an election five bucks for -- like.
To get likely voters right but bottom line increasingly from now going forward but by the total -- -- -- I think this is.
Compound before you answer I got asked this question -- Did -- campaigns poll.
Likely likely voters.
They're not there right now they're polio or not wasting their -- the Obama campaign's polling shows him in more trouble running and these polls public polls are -- right.
I mean when -- campaign your campaign oh you're looking -- likely -- you're having to make decisions on this.
Is -- Doug said it's a tough thing to do for the viewers what they need to understand is when you.
We're looking at these -- to need to see.
As we've said you know.
I'm not only the competence level don't take them all so seriously.
Really hole a lot of the public polls to media polls they're still polling all all all all Americans all of dollar.
Our -- guys not made but you guys who were big cheeses in the polling world are you getting poll numbers that the public's not getting are you saying what what.
I'm seeing suggests this one of the reasons the Romney campaign.
Has a level of confidence that I think it's ill advised.
Is they are doing very very tight -- they're seeing low levels of interest from young people they're seeing a smaller electorate -- of the electorate better it is for -- Romney so there.
Confident I believe based on a set of assumptions about turnout that may or may not be.
Are you guys happy with those assumptions you know really well and I think you value in a -- and politics on the campaign the presidential campaign strictly.
Might -- my feeling was.
You know all the good stuff aside I want to work with.
From the premise that we're working again and pushing uphill the war rolled in the wrong -- to what are the tough challenges what are the problems.
You must be in the battle -- this notion of being overconfident more campaigns are defeated.
Because of over competence and not paying attention than any other single -- -- and so the Obama campaign it has an -- an air of desperation about it not terrible desperation but.
Thus they're motivated to do things like the new tax cut proposal.
Up the gay initiative the immigration announcement -- that's what else is in the pipeline through -- being the pro early or.
Planning on being -- they have the presidency they can be proactive.
They're also on the offensive trying to define Romney and the most critical thing going on right now is -- Romney campaigns.
And there are strategist decision to allow Obama to define them on the basis so I won't matter.
By now I want to ask if we could put number four up on the screen which is the -- What does this is the month of June.
If you look on the left at the beginning of June.
June 1 to seventh Obama was ahead by one point.
And the Gallup poll 4645.
And -- go to the end of the month and into the first week of July a bomb is basically the same 47 feet -- registered voters.
-- is a registered voters so we assume it's.
Little got -- friend -- -- it's a tie but the point this thing is no change.
A month which pat has repeatedly on this show every Monday and every Sunday.
Cold lake who ruled June for the president because of bad economic news right from the get go with that from the major job to hear word pride in July -- bad every day that was bad economic news the only good news in the month for him was the two Supreme Court rulings.
But I guess there -- is.
Is an issue on immigration he -- he had a terrible month all the news was basically.
In that was getting hammered the market everything else to economics up.
The but you know what.
You can you know he is still standing.
That's your -- should point that he is survived June.
And if the Romney campaign the Republicans.
Do not understand how -- they are behind the eight ball in the month that they could have made the biggest.
-- -- -- -- -- They did not want to get -- before Doug comments because we talked healthier don't want to have to weigh in on this that -- sticking with this thing if you're June no movement.
In the battleground state poll that we just talked about that is basically 4745.
Inside that -- they polled people who would -- in all these negative commercials and asked where you Adam -- And 76%.
Problems said after -- the commercials they're more likely to vote for the president.
Less likely -- does that mean.
As a layman.
That the ads are working.
-- I don't think given the bad economic news.
That even the administration agrees but he put number four back up for practice dogs holding -- up -- like to vote the viewers to look at this thing again while Doug explains.
Given our poll.
Friend that goes from 4645.
In the wake of bad economic news.
It's got to be that kids are at the very least neutralizing governor Romney because I think it's fair to say and I don't want to speak for pat but we both believe that if in the absence of advertising -- other things being equal I think.
Romney would be three to five point here capsule that's the point and look at this little gap here look at the little gap at the end again on the -- -- only a few points.
Notice how intertwined the lines are right up to this point here.
Mentally if you had a message the immigration moved in which again the Republicans.
Miss are also Israel now so if you look on the tape they've had them on the computer the gap is right above -- The blue box for Obama is that's is that where the immigration announcement -- yes -- -- -- basically I believe that's exactly where it hit.
And the fact views that the president look like he was leading in the Republicans.
Because they cannot and I mean talking about generic Republican -- entire party.
Does not seem to be able to get a message to the stupid party instead of jumping up and has no response -- the other party called the corrupt party.
-- -- party just across party and they're both popular one they both have a lot of --
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