Obama losing his majority since last election?
Assessing president's campaign strategy
- Duration 4:08
- Date Jul 12, 2012
Assessing president's campaign strategy
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Can headquarters is of course getting ready for the race for the White House and -- is a very different race this time around back in 2008.
President Obama beat Senator John McCain by nine and a half million votes.
This time it seems like a very different scenario is shaping up according to the latest real clear politics average of polls.
President Obama has a slim lead over governor Mitt Romney 46 to 44%.
In an opinion piece in the Wall Street Journal Karl Rove a Fox News contributor and former senior advisor to President Bush.
Highlights the key reasons he sees for the tight race.
They include the fact that GOP voters he says are more fired up the Democrats.
The enthusiasm among young voters is lower than it was in 2008.
And the president is losing ground among middle class voters.
-- Like well like nobody's business -- I -- to read to you part of what Carl wrote in that op Ed piece in the Wall Street Journal he says.
Elections are about numbers and right now the presidents are bad.
A big chunk of President Obama is nine point five million vote advantages the advantage he enjoyed over John McCain.
Is probably gone do you agree with that.
I yeah I think so I mean when you look at it -- the numbers from 2008 to 2012.
The president's numbers are down really across a number of key demographic groups really in the president's got to fight a battle on two fronts.
One he's got to keep the democratic base motivated and figure out a way to mobilize them.
-- and secondarily he's got to sort -- stand this exodus out.
-- independent voters that are that have been moving away from the president for the past couple years.
And also white working class voters it's not a group that president Obama's gonna expect to win.
But the margin in which he loses those voters buy it is going to be key.
And he slipped substantially among those voters that's huge and the state like Ohio.
It's important in Pennsylvania it's important in Michigan and North Carolina the enthusiasm gap is the first thing that -- mentions he's as Republican voters are simply more fired up to vote this time around and if you can't get your base to go to the polls you're gonna have trouble winning an election.
Yeah a little bit of the enthusiasm gap sort of depends on what -- you're looking at it was a Gallup poll that suggested in some of the key swing states.
I -- sort of hyper level of enthusiasm was highest.
Among Republican supporters of Mitt Romney and and higher then -- the president's supporters.
But nationally say there's not a huge enthusiasm gap here.
I you know President Obama supporters are motivated they are enthusiastic.
But keep in mind this is not 2008.
And even a difference.
One or two percentage points in terms of turnout amongst today.
Core aspects of the democratic base and it could mean hundreds of thousands of votes.
I and that's -- the White House has to guard against I was surprised to read that 9%.
Who went to the polls last time around in 2008 said they voted for Barack Obama.
Carl -- -- suggests that he's not going to enjoy that kind of support among Republican voters this time.
Yeah I think that's a pretty safe assumption -- I think they.
The one thing that you saw -- in 2008.
Was that it you know the Obama campaign was able to it made inroads among.
-- more conservative leaning independents.
Those white working class voters even among some Republicans while the numbers were quite small.
-- -- All of those things have eroded to -- to a great extent for President Obama in the White House.
And it's now a fight to you know be really retain that -- among independent voters which you're going to be key a lot of the battleground states Friday and again -- -- find a way to further motivate the democratic base because when you are losing.
Is some ground among independents when you're further losing ground among white working class voters -- the democratic base is gonna have to be hyper mobilized.
I and the White House has got to figure out how they're gonna do that for November show on the April elections expert from campaign and elections magazine thank you.