Rove and Trippi on the race to 270
Political strategists break down state of presidential race
- Duration 7:09
- Date Jul 16, 2012
Political strategists break down state of presidential race
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Its offer a few minutes about the magic number this November 270.
As in 270 electoral votes to win the presidency.
Let's bring back former bush senior advisor Karl Rove and democratic strategist Joseph Trippi -- -- latest on these numbers gentlemen thank you for being here.
As you take a look at the latest map and we can lay it out for you here you can see the info on the key red states Romney Blue States.
President Obama and then the pink issues -- Romney light blue lean Obama.
And the yellow is -- up those are states within the margin of error.
And those are toss -- states this is all based on polls from the last thirty days we've been meeting every couple of weeks Carl what has changed since the last time we talk.
Well first of all we haven't had a lot of -- because we had the fourth of July holiday intervene and pollsters don't like to to poll wolf we're likely see a lot more in the weeks ahead but only.
Two states have changed Michigan and New Hampshire both of them went from lean Obama.
-- based on recent polls to toss -- states.
There -- changes in a variety of other states but none of them the change the status of two states represented twenty Electoral College votes from Michigan with sixteen.
And bench with four went into the toss up category but other changes happened.
A number of different.
Categories of a change yet three tossup states.
Move towards Obama but one point.
Three Romney states got stronger for Romney by anywhere between you.
Ten three points and ten points three states that were Obama states got better for Romney.
Again didn't change their status and then finally three Obama states got better for Obama to -- and 66 and six now the bigger changes happened frankly in the states who were already safe Furl for rob me.
And the second big in the second largest -- set of shifts occurred in states were already safe for Obama but.
But -- -- -- want to mattered were these three states these two states Michigan and New Hampshire.
Where the status change Joseph what are you seeing on the map and may be particularly to where the Obama campaign is deploying money to advertise.
Well increasingly they start putting money in New Hampshire last week -- -- TV ads ads there and they've added money in the Pennsylvania this week.
Which sort it did it when you look at the New Hampshire moved to.
It's a toss up it makes sense if they'd be doing that the interesting thing is they happen put money in the Michigan.
If it moves the toss up as it's because it's moved -- is a big big shift because that's -- state.
When we haven't been really looking at it it it's been lean lean Obama I think a lot of people because of Romney's opposition and auto bailouts and other things spot it would move to Obama -- -- it hasn't done that if they have to start putting money there to.
It's really gonna start stretching some of the resources as of.
Report out that this is based on thirty day.
Polls so we in some of the states there are.
Not a lot of poll's editor based on old Paul -- and I were talking about it really vegan for somebody do Poland South Carolina and Texas and South Dakota so we can put those safely and Romney territory which is where they think should belong -- Irving Texas -- Romney is not really we have several month -- for South Carolina the last -- in December please somebody some -- reputable media organization.
In South Dakota South Carolina and Texas lot of polls so we can settle this these three states for the rest of the campaign.
-- means the electoral vote is actually tighter than than.
I think and we're we're showing it because I think we're -- an abundance of caution here in keeping some of these states that are toss ups from.
Long ago polling.
Which clearly -- today and I don't expect them to be in here -- touched on a very.
Interesting point though in presidential campaign you'd like to do if you if you're the incumbent you try and narrow the field the places that you're playing defense.
And if you're the challenger you wanna expand the field as you go -- on the places where you can play offense.
For example -- 2000 we were playing offense in.
West Virginia State -- Bob Dole of lost by sixteen points in 2000 election in 1996.
But but we wanted to expand the battlefield what's happening to -- Obama is.
They -- were running television advertisements seven states.
Then they added an eight state.
Now they're up to nine states.
It may be that of Michigan -- -- these numbers in Michigan are real that they ought to be advertised in ten states to which is.
Starting to stretch their financial resources between may one roughly in the end of July.
President Obama and his outside allies will spend roughly a 116 million dollars on television based on the buys -- they've got place today.
Romney and his outside allies will spend roughly -- 150 million dollars.
Obama's campaign will spend a 115 million dollars out of it should be a hundred million dollars out of its own war chest.
The Romney campaign we'll spend roughly forty million dollars -- difference on each side will be made up by outside allies and that's starting to stretch it looks like.
The financial resources of of President Obama.
I agree with Karl on this I think what they.
Great I think the Obama campaign was really hoping that by now they'd be this would be shrinking to a 45 state.
And instead of that it's it's broadened out and if it broadens out to Michigan and I think.
I think they planned on its shutting down some get out the -- some some children's nations shutting down on the number of states the replying spots and and instead it's not shrinking its its growing and that that presents -- We quickly -- -- 11 thing this growing.
Conservative voice out there that seems to be saying to the Romney campaign go on the offense.
You had about these Bain attacks in the commercials that the Obama campaign is running.
The concern in conservative ranks conservative talk show host mark who then says attention Mitt Romney and Romney campaign staff.
You need to go on the offense -- -- peace and say forget the -- -- take the mitts off Mitt.
President Obama is playing the -- and apple rules of Chicago politics rather than calling for apologies.
Romney needs to grab a bottle break it on the bar and start fighting back is this an issue.
From well I think -- that there is some concern -- they are fighting back but here's the here's the conundrum.
Obama wants them to fight back in the same way that he's attacking he wants them to get down in the gutter with them.
So when they go back -- refute this they need to flip this to a higher level they need to say.
These are as the -- -- -- said misleading and untrue and false ads.
And the reason he's -- -- -- is because she's trying to hide his sorry record on creating jobs.
Controlling spending and reducing the deficit and they've got to raise it up they can't they can't take the bait and fall into the mud with with President Obama because -- the end of the day.
If this is a battle between two sort of mud swingers but neither one of -- looking presidential people tend to go with the guy who is already present degree quick I think look.
Care to be cautious candidacy tendencies -- always.
Don't do very well and -- -- to be cautious candidate in the running care to be cautious campaign it's not work they've got I think they've got to get proactive and get aggressive.
In and start this.
Defending -- deflecting these attacks a lot better than they've been doing gentlemen we'll see in a couple weeks.