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Back -- a segment tonight new poll from Marist College has 74% of registered voters under the age of thirty support President Obama just 20%.
Are Romney people.
-- now from Washington Fox's analyst Charles -- you know before it gets in -- -- college ball.
2% of blacks support Romney.
I think -- the number is 28% of Hispanics.
20% -- under thirty.
Looks like the president -- -- last line.
-- that really.
I think if you're gonna compare that turnout.
-- particularly among his strong constituencies like African Americans like Hispanics.
And like the -- will probably be depressed.
Look at particularly let's start with the you know what -- they know that's why they're young they're gonna have to know anything they voted for Obama.
You know -- -- that we have about the same ratios.
It's the older people who have.
Wisdom I mean that.
The -- the embodiment of the idea of hope over experience.
And their older people -- -- -- over sixty particularly 65.
You know remember that in 2008 they elected.
Charismatic conjure -- came out of nowhere.
And he gave an 8% unemployment the slowest recovery since the second world -- five trillion dollars of debt.
When that leaves a residue people of the the older people who were pro Obama now have -- buyer's remorse.
But there will be a lower turnout among the young even though the ratio volume -- -- say that's not a strategy here whenever I -- sure that their unemployment is astronomical.
And but those who swollen in the isles some of them are gonna stay home because they know the reality of what Obama has rocked.
We were going to just necessarily we have time the jet in job creation this is interstate 80% of the jobs created -- President Obama.
I'm gonna met.
Yet in the polls single women support.
And you know the president -- -- campaign say that he's.
You know there's a war on women by the Republicans and and you look at the stats.
And the democratic part of done anything for American went 80% of the -- jobs -- create -- government.
Yet if that doesn't seep out it doesn't seek the seat back both in two.
Were there are two factors.
Number one in the recession men.
Last jobs it was women who actually did better.
In the draw -- in the loss of jobs so it's not surprising that there's.
A surplus a man who get jobs back although this is a fairly surprisingly wide gap.
But the second issue is that we're talking about young women.
Remember married to women vote Republican in traditionally young women vote democratic.
And this is where the social issues the free contraceptives.
The idea of national health care all of these things play it.
And I think Obama campaign is played that very well look his campaign is based on one idea.
You go out and you try to seduce one ethnic or social economic -- -- constituencies.
After another because you can't run.
As a national candidate -- improve the country Segal after African Americans for Hispanics you do that.
The DREAM Act by executive order for students you cut their loan rates in half for unions you give them all kinds of goodies.
And through women -- get -- of those that the free contraception.
And -- -- the -- man.
If Republicans get control of Supreme Court they knew somehow outlaw abortion.
So all of these are traditional constituencies.
That's where he -- he cannot the make the appeal.
The president of all Americans and America is better off if he does that he looses.
Okay but you know that's it was all those groups that you mentioned if he can galvanize those groups.
And they do turn -- you win.
Well -- I'm not sure first of all.
It's not necessarily a majority.
I mean we imagine that white working class doesn't exist it's a huge number and -- go very disproportionately.
And second because of the overall effect.
-- economic policies.
There will be a depressed turnout.
Of all these constituencies that Obama's -- -- short time -- sure that what I can say -- rally enough.
I have no question that among the young he has no chance.
Crew of a sort of re created.
The excitement in the near hysteria he did in 2008.
That's once in a lifetime lightning in the bottle -- over.
All right now final question if the election were held tomorrow.
Who would win.
By a lot.
Relatively narrow if he wins either -- -- November in your hypothetical.
It'll be a narrow win because you eke it out with these constituencies and why would he I believe he -- -- what do you win tomorrow.
Because if you look at all the Posey averages if you had a two point edge.
In the popular vote it's almost inconceivable.
If you have that strong and over.
In the overall vote and lose in the Electoral College -- but I think that changes remember Carter and Reagan.
We're very neck and neck until the last month month and a half.
I think all of this negative stuff against Romney has had an effect of making people hesitant to switch from Obama to Romney.
I think give Romney humanize himself in the debates and does reasonably well.
The way Reagan did in his debates and become acceptable to meet the threshold for president.
He wins and I think that's likely to happen -- Josh thanks as always if.
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