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Morris: Romney will win battleground states

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    Former Clinton adviser on 2012 race and Obama gutting welfare reform

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Now the top story tonight reaction joining us from Stamford Connecticut the author the big best -- school -- to the -- for mention it Mars.

All right so basically.

We're -- -- the numbers not too much speculation this is all based on the pole but a brand of fox poll just came in.

Had this is registered voters and you always quibble with that 45%.

For the president 41% for -- and you said.

But last time I think it was seven points for Obama.

Registered voter polls.

Include roughly a third of their sampled it doesn't vote.

Obama is sweeping that demographic.

-- -- people that don't vote by three to one okay.

Among those who do vote which is the likely voter poll.

Scott Rasmussen.

Today had visited 4744.

Romney you now.

When 44%.

Of the people are voting for Obama and even in some of these swing states as much as 47%.

-- That means -- can lose the state.

-- let me play -- game with the people at home watching this.

If you are going to be married to the same guy next year same person next year raise your hands okay hands down undecided.

Between.

What does it say when you're undecided about that.

I think that whenever you have an undecided voter.

They are pre disposed to voting -- that's really upset and I think that's logical and then on one of the thing we -- and also alluded to your.

All of these polls -- African American turnout at thirteen or 14%.

It was fourteen in a way it was eleven -- 04.

But when you ask voters are you likely to vote how much you following the election how we introduced -- to argue.

The blacks are way down way below lights on this and I think he'll turn at 11%.

The historic norms so I think all these polls.

-- two points wrong.

All right now.

The Electoral College -- -- this is the Republicans have to keep what McCain had they have to start with 173.

If -- start getting defections from the south I mean I saw map today -- South Carolina.

And they say it's a play out -- for second.

But do you see any states that voted for McCain -- might go for the president now.

Now all right so that's rocky -- 17 for it.

Are right now the president starts a little higher -- he's got states like California and new York and Washington State.

Fairly significant electoral votes there so he's starting a little bit higher than Mitt Romney.

But as you said in in states like Michigan that's in play this time around I was in play.

I've studied all the polls and the different states and I think Romney is gonna win almost all of the battleground states.

I think he's going to win Virginia.

Florida.

New Mexico but that's baseball you're gonna wish not not reality right now it's based on reality because -- been through hundreds of elections.

With incumbents running against challengers hundreds up.

And the incumbent always loses the vast bulk of the undecided.

Tomorrow on a factor and and this is a signal to the guys upstairs right now wanna have the polls between Carter and and Reagan at this point.

Right in the middle -- you'll see this -- haven't yet you'll see it.

-- now -- the other thing I want to ask you about is the Obama administration very quietly.

He's telling the states they can change their welfare rules now since you work.

One of the architects of the welfare reform under Bill Clinton what do you think this is all about.

-- it's horrible bill when I was negotiating with Trent Lott and working for Bill Clinton on the final version of the welfare reform bill.

Trent said I want an absolute lead guarantee.

-- guarantee.

That -- -- human health and human services administration.

Cannot redefine the word work to include sleeping late or going to school or.

Going to a truck driver school from the back of a match book.

And we wrote language that was air China -- that.

Now Obama's administration is totally disregarding the -- no question -- be thrown out by the courts but we'll take a while.

And they are defining work as including study or training.

In the past they begin frightened -- -- Stewart or training to become a hula dancer as work.

And it completely guts the purpose of the law.

-- and he got a state the purpose was basically the federal government told the states listen.

You've got to keep track of anybody getting welfare money to see that they're actively trying to find work.

Or they get caught off.

And now all it is you -- emails.

No no no it's not that you have to keep track of them they actually have to be doing work and if they can't get a job you have to provide.

A public sector job would they work forty hours a week in return for their welfare benefit -- -- they have to be doing something to get the welfare but the Obama administration wants to do away with that why why would they wanna do away with.

Because he wants to spread entitlements when Obama took office.

43%.

Of Americans got checks from the government now 50% are.

And his goal is to expand the entitlements to expand -- base there's something even more scary than this bill.

In my book screwed I write about the rights of the child treaty.

Which is now under negotiation in the UN and the US is likely to sign.

That creates a statutory.

Requirement.

To give welfare benefits to people to bring children up to certain levels in Britain Cameron is being sued.

For cutting welfare benefits under the rights of the child treaty.

Read about it my -- Dick Morris everybody that.

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