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Who would win the presidential election if held today?

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    Talking Points 7/18

  • Duration 2:31
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Hi I'm Bill O'Reilly thanks for watching us tonight who would win the presidential election if -- were held today that is -- subject of this evening's talking points memo.

Last night Charles Krauthammer predicted -- Obama would win of the vote were held right now.

You had a two point edge.

In the popular vote it's almost inconceivable.

Did you have that strong and over.

Excess.

In the -- the vote and lose in the Electoral College.

However Karl -- disagrees and believes Romney would win that's interesting is -- Krauthammer and rove are astute analysts.

That's -- -- boys believes -- Obama would not carry one state that voted for John McCain last time around.

Therefore Mitt Romney begins with a 173.

Electoral votes I also think the president will lose North Carolina.

That's fifteen electoral votes to lose New Hampshire for electoral votes in Indiana eleven electoral votes.

That brings governor Romney up to 203 electoral votes to seventy needed to win.

So the governor -- 67 electoral votes away if my analysis is correct he gets sixty of those votes if he wins Virginia Ohio and Florida.

That would leave him just seven electoral votes from the presidency.

-- -- that mr.

Obama.

Has very little margin of error.

According to a poll by purple strategies Ohio Virginia and Florida are tied right now within the margin of error.

As Dick Morris always says when it's a tie the challenger usually wins because undecideds break against the guy they know best in this case the president.

Also the state of Colorado with nine electoral votes is a tie as well.

Florida most likely to go to Romney the governor there is Republican the economy very shaky in the minority vote for Obama will not be as great as it -- in 2008.

Ohio has Republican John Kasich is governor and the economy is improving there under John whom you'll remember used to -- for me here on the fact.

So -- is a very good chance to take Ohio.

Virginia is a wild -- But again it's controlled by Republican governor Bob McDonnell.

Well as improve the economy in -- state also is a good chance of Romney will choose a VP candidate from one of those three states he almost passed.

-- going forward Mitt Romney's a pretty good shape according to call rose map.

-- Romney is competitive in Michigan Iowa and New Hampshire three states that went for -- Obama last time around.

They comprise 26 electoral votes also talking voices ICL Barack Obama's gonna carry Nevada -- unemployment very close to 12%.

So -- all due respect Charles Krauthammer at this point I think Romney.

Might be in this.

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