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Morning I'm Doug -- mrs.
Campaign insiders the only problem -- I'm sorry.
-- and both guys cable and the web that offers analysis without fear or favor.
We cut through the clutter.
Of the campaign season.
We do it not as journalists but is practicing.
I have with me.
My friends and colleagues former congressman John -- -- -- From Long Island and -- -- -- Doctor doctor Cadel Null mr.
Goodell and your doctor don't get off because -- take that -- and I will tell you later in the show why he's.
Referred to as the Reggie Jackson of our group but that's -- that's a little bit later in the program but we're going to be -- -- a more serious.
Note that our initial bad actors suggests.
In our broadcast yesterday on Fox News Channel we began to speak of why the race may be.
Turning and why the slight lead that a couple of polls are showing for governor Romney may.
Well all order.
Well for him badly for president.
Obama and then be indicative of the -- pat I'd like you to begin if you would tell us what's going on why it's happening and how -- -- see things as of this morning is is -- of this.
Morning you know there are moments when you have been campaigns.
Kind of a day you'll remember the red letter day of whatever.
And a black letter days and that and that -- and to this morning it struck me when the news.
The Iraq we had the the the very well planned violent attacks in Iraq against the government killing many soldiers.
That Iraq seems now be blowing up.
We have the story did the Chinese oil company yourself ball won't largest reserves of -- -- -- western.
Canada which is about keystone on that issue.
The stock market is down 230 points -- -- this morning.
-- -- news in Europe and I'm thinking.
For President Obama of -- are now in the saddle and they're not going well.
And we -- the economic numbers are so bad.
And they're getting worse and the -- and there was an article this morning that said.
That economists in April kind of blew away blew off the unemployment thing is not being serious -- recovery was picking up are now almost to a person.
Very pessimistic that may be good or bad but very pessimist so I just think -- -- all these events are working against the president.
Because he's the one in charge in things are getting -- yet John these swing state data and indeed most of the national polls.
When average show the president ahead is pat overstating the case now.
I think I think what we've talked about amongst the three of us with our audience over the last year.
Is this underlying.
Sour -- -- us throughout the system.
And 48 a -- week challenger Mitt Romney to -- a basically tied with a sitting president at this points not bad maybe if I were him.
I could say why he's doing what he's doing what she's playing it safe counting on the economy taking Obama down.
He's with standing on a furious on solar commercials about -- -- all.
And he's surviving -- And a dog the other point was in June we talk about how about a month president have -- do you still -- he the president has gone and it.
I mean unloaded.
-- money we she's running out of and attacks him.
Romney's sorely needed to to that and let me put up first.
Number three and then if we could go to a full screen number four I'm gonna ask -- and -- for their reactions.
Number theory is the New York Times poll which has governor Romney is you can see I had 47 to 46.
And the Fox News poll has President Obama.
Four points ahead I would say again.
That is something of -- out liar given.
The other polls that have shown the race.
-- that's 86%.
Earnings of fourteen excellent what did you speak about the undecideds -- you know look let's talk about Jessica's that's important -- the fox poll shows 14% either for someone else on the spotted.
The -- -- the about seven -- the New York Times.
And that's part of the -- but we know rest of the rest -- who -- and Brenda borrower's credit boulevards and impregnable Morrison is really quite it.
We -- give some really different kind of analysis and all the people that he polls likely voters.
And it always does and he did a compendium of three weeks' worth this does -- -- alone among decided voters and looked at them.
They have an overall rating people either voting are eight to 10% on average.
They were either -- them basically -- -- voting for someone else more conservative -- half of them saying they're unsure.
The president overall it's 29% approval rating with those people 13% of those people we've countries in the right direction.
The president has a very high negative.
Rating disapproval rating I mean is -- -- that they -- -- vote those beliefs of those 70%.
Who don't have a high opinion of Obama either not gonna vote they're gonna end up voting for -- that -- -- I would think -- look at those numbers they -- in motion at all Romney needs to do.
He's either pick up those who were susceptible there are some conservatives for others who clearly -- excited about wrong.
But they're they're all Obama -- they have to make let me ask you guys a question inside the Romney campaign does he have a do you think he has a huge.
Polling operation yes II is certainly has a huge fully operation here and they had indeed Obama spent two and a half million -- So they did they say one month -- my hypothesis.
Two point six million in June right on -- all right but here's what they did.
I do that cheaper -- them might go called me up and making -- the Antara -- area I think there -- two people pat.
Unlikely to get calls the most unlikely -- you in the next most likely as me if you put that being said the guy who's doing the Obama.
Polling is -- Levinson who used to work for me.
And my sense is what he is sold them.
Is a segmentation of the electorate -- detailed segmentation to try to find a way to get that extra one or 2%.
Based on turnout in polling and targeting.
The problem is in the absence of an overall message.
It's hard to pull out of vote.
When you don't have a reason what people some real good job what memories does ask you Romney has good Poland if you've heard -- -- -- Because the numbers you're talking about revisited that area let me just put this -- has a better pollster.
Busiest Neil Newhouse who's -- and I know and -- and he's he's great he was with.
-- -- -- -- -- -- Do they have the same numbers Rasmussen does is he reading the independent here's what they're say they are saying.
Something pretty simple which may or may not be right they're drawing a different inference I think can we do from the numbers they're saying look.
-- -- or were slightly ahead.
-- losses -- little sore pain and hasn't hurt us.
Thus there -- this election will be a referendum on Obama and that's a referendum will win circa 1980.
And there are saying if we win the election we win what you say -- -- wise that pat.
On I think first of all I think they have been damaged by campaign I think it's reinforce that quite the attitude we've said before.
That he is for the rich that he in the end I keep saying we've talked about -- -- -- The his lack of having definition the obamas they spent -- -- is what would you confident two and so you don't.
I mean this a massive offensive last few weeks.
Good to have been spending and attacks by the president on.
On Romney trying to make him a legitimate I think that's -- But I think they have done damage physically in the government midwest because Romney has yet to make a case for himself that he is not a deal -- but the job creator.
Very simple matter -- to -- vision in these economic times which -- One of your major seems dog.
About growth economy -- seizing -- weapon to say there's only one way out of this economic mess.
But I think they -- -- you put your finger not only I'll shut up here but I think you're saying the Obama campaign is looking at this is old war.
Running from Romney campaign's looking this is eighty.
And has fought as John how you look -- -- -- twelve and it's a little bit of both of them something else until what would you do if you were advising the Romney campaign.
I think that would you know it's like any campaign.
It has to be reduced to one sentence what is Mitt Romney now -- Obama people -- -- say he's a rich.
Guy who favors the rich and he doesn't care about you.
Romney needs to sell a better message which is I.
Made it I want you to make it.
I'm a turn around -- non ideological turn around karlson and you don't turn around exactly.
And I'm gonna turn around the direction of this country he needs to compress that and take what supposedly -- Negative which is I'm rich and turn and no positive I made it in this country.
I know how to make it I want you to be able to make it and -- key for you to make it is to get the yoke of government off your -- -- And John the deal could I mean I think that Republican argument doesn't work as well I think it works in part.
But I think could you also have to say there's a way to do this we have to put -- ignite the engine of growth of America.
In The -- -- I think the video and forget -- -- I know how to make and I made it I want you to make it and the key is we -- get.
Policies that grow our economy create jobs and so forth let that wins says that you doctor doctor you -- -- I wanna do before we come to our break.
I want to play.
A couple arms of sound -- I'd like to start -- -- President Obama in West Palm Beach sound -- number one and get people's reaction.
-- want just keep those tax cuts he wants to pile on another five trillion dollars in tax cuts.
88 point 5% tax cut for every millionaire in the conflict.
-- he'd have to -- job trading programs for our for our workers financial aid for.
It potentially have to raise taxes on the middle class folks who can least afford it.
He wants to roll back.
-- Affordable Care Act Health Care Reform.
Floridians to pay more for the prescription drugs.
What what what does this tell you pat about his strategy -- strategy is let me attack everything all once all the time anything.
It's one -- -- it's the other there is -- -- here.
All of the -- personal ball.
You know -- -- and Romney invites some -- -- -- -- the Republicans by being so steadfast.
In their opposition any increases in revenue as opposed -- -- compromising position.
But I think the president looks desperate I think he's out there saying anything and everything and throwing everything mud everywhere hoping something will stick.
So I think -- your world -- a minute what what -- what's your reaction.
Well I've never seen a president have we ever seen a president running for reelection in the summer of the election and here.
Just speaking negatively by name of his opponent used to -- the role as he never mentioned your opponent's name he never dignify the guys existence your vitality and let me offer a comment on one of our regular cars.
-- -- -- -- And it's directed at pat of course pat the only reason the -- certainly it is the fact that Obama has made or woods tried to make this about capitalism vs socialism.
And those who are not too bright to realize the differences are going for Obama since he clearly does not like free market principles.
My own take is slightly different from the three of you I think that the negative is necessary.
-- what Obama has not offered is any view even they re distributed view.
And pat we're going to the break some give it -- you titillate -- even.
I spoke to your friends from yesterday when I spoke to him I said there's no message and pat.
I said Bob you and I have a different view on what the message should be but we agree that there needs to be a message and bobs from.
Who does believe in redistribution.
And is a classic.
Liberal left wing Democrat.
Agreed that Obama needs a more assertive.
Message and when we come back we'll talk about what the Obama message could be or should be.
And I will play the role of a left wing Democrat.
Okay thanks very much -- -- -- back with campaign insiders on Doug shone with jungle -- layer and -- -- gallon when I left off before the break I said I was gonna create the straw man create the liberal left wing.
And what the left would say is we need more stimulus we need more spending.
Infrastructure spending government needs to expand in the short term so that it can create the level of growth.
The level of revenue needed to in the longer term reduce the debt and the deficit in that it's only through.
Big government and spending and hiring more workers.
Can government achieve its objective of being socially progressive and create the kind of jobs we have pat what's wrong with -- well it doesn't work because the entire large.
-- in the country disagrees.
from who is you know if you -- accurately who.
Like yesterday on Meet the Press almost not only -- was on Meet the Press discussing Al Gore's acceptance speech which -- of course -- It was a pretty good speech was a pretty good speech very populist speech he changed your entire message for someone have been -- -- -- administration but.
Nonetheless the argument he would make his goal left registered me redistribution.
Switchers and on terms that they -- the -- join the stimulus failed.
This stuff doesn't work and that's -- -- four.
And we you know and just to put -- a note on you know mr.
from a does have the distinction Bob does have.
Having lost more presidential campaigns and anyone in history.
He's never -- to concede that the gore message -- a message was better than the -- Obama because of well it was better than -- Obama message but in this environment.
It didn't work that well in 2000 and it ain't gonna work around some would say they won that election.
I will let you -- we don't have time to go through the back though they did.
-- -- -- -- What do you think about where President Obama -- what would you advise him to do I think he's got the left he needn't worry about that I don't understand why he doesn't move to the metal on certain issues Simpson Bowles Keystone Pipeline all these things that have been sitting there that.
Cry out for him to move to the -- take the independent vote away from Romney.
Romney also ought to be moving to the -- he's got the right they're not they're voting against Obama than -- voted for him but they're gonna vote and against Obama.
The middle is sitting there and neither one of these guys ever talks about.
And we talked on here here's what Romney could do to get them.
He could say I have to be honest we're in a terrible mess in this country.
Because both parties have put us in this maps right Democrats.
Any outside party -- outside so what should Romney do.
John what'd he say why he should say that -- should say I have to be honest and say my party is partly responsible for this thing.
And we cannot repeat these mistakes and we have to be fiscally responsible and we retake power and I am going to manage this thing.
Not as an ideologue I'm gonna manage at the -- why isn't he doing that.
-- -- -- -- You realize this is so import please -- -- saying is because the one thing in the poll the one thing the Obama administration needs something to their messages.
This is George W.
Bush back -- same policies which you're saying Romney should be the outsider never want.
Which he should be -- a time when people hate the insiders.
The number two.
He should be able criticize his own party.
And I think the -- without delta and that they'll take they'll take it in the hell would I give him more credibility -- almost say I disagree with what they -- -- -- Listen we've got over a third of the people of America had chosen to be independent.
They -- water -- because they do not like either party so if if one of the nominees.
In effect sided with that and set hate.
I like these parties that guy is gonna have enhanced credibility -- this man right now can do.
But he's not -- -- let me if I can put up a couple of.
-- and I'd like to get.
Both of your reaction would like to put up.
Both Fox News poll.
Two Fox News polls.
-- Number of full screen five -- in full screen sex.
Africa so raising taxes and an economic downturn is that a good idea or a bad idea 72 for shows how is still ahead I'd public is that they know it's a bad idea bad idea of 20% good idea.
And number six which to me is particularly telling.
Are you better off or worse off.
Our dollars economy and -- economy better off -- worse off because of the Obama administration.
37 batter 49 words pat what do you make of these.
I'd say these are good numbers I mean you know -- doesn't live in fairness to say this supporting the -- tax on millionaires.
Is supported 5242.
But it's but it's -- -- moments are so narrow majority people you have complex views the major thing they think is crippling the growth of the economy now is a problem.
And those numbers -- 49% worst people also say they're worse all there is a case to be made.
And that is the case that the president doesn't have.
Which is the problem I have -- from 1980.
Which is -- he gonna say about the way you've been managing the economy.
And his argument is if they only do you know I don't know let me attack the other and a -- is -- -- what what's your take on these numbers.
Well first well I think that -- 37%.
Say it's better because that is the base democratic vote that obamas get in the thirty some percent to 49%.
Say it's worse.
That's to me Romney's getting those votes.
And therefore this is going to be -- fifteen -- 1495050.
Racist thing is headed today.
And -- worse.
For at worse for Romney almost a dead even.
Race look -- -- two polls look at the numbers are almost exactly the same on the two questions on if we look at slide to win six.
Are you better off 37 yes forty went up -- -- -- too deeply sorry you -- They're here we go back please communicate because so that's 3740 now go back to slide six on the economy -- -- Obama administration made the economy better or worse.
Almost the same exact numbers 37 better 49 worse.
And the other you know we've that.
Thirteen and -- but I you know I think these guys were watching this show last summer before we were on Fox News Channel we're only on here because doesn't used to say it only sadness when he chairs over there.
The this is last summer you set the only way Obama can get re elected under the scenario we see developing.
It's for hand to so trashed the Republican nominee that he's on electable and I tried it and it and you don't let.
What he's doing is he's making.
Romney potentially electable and himself.
I was gonna say ungovernable and potentially even on electable let me put up full screen one which is the electoral map.
And I'd like you both to do a to -- of the country.
And assess where it stands John one of should be get a guy we got the map up there we -- -- -- so we get let's start in the south east Florida.
I think the three of us now think Romney is gonna win Florida it's gonna win North Carolina Virginia I'm not sure about.
It's not gonna win Pennsylvania I don't -- them.
Go ahead and -- got Ohio.
Up -- excuse me Ohio Michigan and Wisconsin -- I still think that's where the race -- out west because of the what do you do wins Ohio.
I'm pushing you for production.
As -- -- I I think Romney wins Ohio with Portman.
Take that I don't think he went to Michigan I don't think he -- Wisconsin and what about the west.
And I think he's gonna lose Colorado.
Nevada and new -- -- Believe what is your predicament right now I think that's a very very up close select almost has to sixty now to sixties -- -- what.
You say I'm telling you -- that's who we don't know you can't say right now what's gonna happen Obama amassed I'll ask you where the battleground races in the mid industrial mid midwest.
If the economy numbers move.
These states will all move together in -- is directly Romney's direction or not.
That is what he's got to play for and that's where I disagree about I think not that I don't think Obama is ahead right now.
But Pennsylvania is a -- -- word 2002004.
It was very close.
It is in this kind of economic environment it could -- all right let me.
Turn now to our favorite section of the campaign insiders broadcast which is predictions.
And John here's the question of the day who's going to be the vice presidential nominee.
Why when and how will look like Arkansas like I said yesterday on our Fox News Channel show what she should tune in -- watch -- 525 or for somebody.
I think first -- Romney will not make his pick until after he's back from his trip and the Olympics are over on the twelfth of August.
And the conventions fifteen days later on the 27 in those two weeks -- look at the -- see where -- that make its final decision.
I think he's gonna pick Portman.
From Ohio because of -- violent because Portman is a solid.
Steady guy is not gonna hurt the tech I'm so it's going to be robbed or pat.
You break a -- I think -- John's right about the timing.
I think rather important and may be Pawlenty because Pawlenty is someone is traveling with him and a lot of facetime helps alleged politically sensitive at Arizona State.
He should be going for something a little bolder.
And I made a slight error -- -- -- rubio yesterday I would say he needs Mitch Daniels who has message Condi Rice who has standing.
Or rubio who -- -- with Hispanics and even -- even just keep Jeb Bush even anybody but somebody boring and and just a buoyant but he won't.
And I pat would have agreed with you.
In your assessment.
-- -- Romney was of 246.
Points behind President Obama but given that their latest.
Averages show the race tied I think he will do what John said.
Which is to go with Rob Portman because I think it's the safe choice I think it's the more logical choice -- Given that he's playing a very cautious.
Game and he ultimately does -- Does he put Minnesota now I don't think so no I don't notice is getting for Pawlenty other than -- like come.
When you didn't that you can look at her way primary -- not help that doesn't try to get elected.
You can put men as well it was that any mental thoughts we've got twenty seconds I still think I still think he should get somebody better I do think this -- -- be -- The -- repeated the -- OK is the is the -- if you will pardon him on top of the Romney campaign.
An -- little bold moves would be helpful a little excitement would be helpful to win the excitement and with Pat Caddell thank you for joining us and get paid insiders see as the -- -- 530 on Sunday and --
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