US moving closer to double dip recession?
WSJ's Steve Moore on new GDP numbers
- Duration 4:59
- Date Jul 27, 2012
WSJ's Steve Moore on new GDP numbers
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The economy's new concerns on US.
On the US economy in general on whether or not the economy's slowing right now.
The Commerce Department the government releasing its latest reading.
On economic activity as the GDP report you're seeing on your screen now shows that the economy grew at a rate of one and a half percent.
That's from April through June so few months ago.
But it's not a great time for the economy in general take a look at the bigger picture here as well.
Retail sales fell last month for the third month in a row.
Home sales have also -- -- -- June US manufacturing activity is also lower at the service sector is expanding at a slower pace.
And job growth when -- -- actual job growth.
That's remained below 100000.
For each of the past three months.
When with comes to how we feel about the economy consumer sentiment consumer sentiment is off so lower Steve Moore is a senior economics writer at the -- Carolyn joins us now to Steve first with the GDP you say this moves us closer to a double dip recession -- that.
The it's it's not a pretty picture right now -- -- look at these numbers and you gave the whole litany of job.
But let's focus for a second on -- GDP numbers you know one point 5% is an anemic number it means the drowning man is barely treading water.
Hot but then you look at the project that trajectory of the economy we were growing at about two and a half percent last year 2% in the first quarter now one and a half.
You know if you open keeping do that trajectory -- it's Dow war there's got so I am nervous now.
About the possibility of a double dip recession I hate to see -- it would just.
-- family finances it would lead to more job losses but were -- precariously close to that situation right now.
What is things at the White House said the chief economic advisor came out today with the blog response -- this is sometimes how they respond as an economic news.
And he's -- look back and 2009 ECB effects of the stimulus plan.
But then everything else after that gets slower it's not a direct argument Steve for another stimulus plan but the point is made that things -- batter.
In their opinion when there was a stimulus what do you think this means as far as future intervention from the government into our economy.
It's a great point -- this is exactly what the White House line will be over the next three or four months Democrats will pick up but that on this team that actually government spending.
And last year or so has actually been following there's a big problem with the White House argument.
Does anybody really believe we can continue to borrow one half trillion dollars a year in fact.
I would make the case and writing an editorial on this now that in fact what's happened is that the they cure that the kind of prescription was worse than the disease all of this overspending.
All of the easy money I think this is the hangover effect from that and you just can't keep spending your way to prosperity and -- and borrowing by the way because we've we've increased our debt by five trillion dollars I don't think we can do -- -- -- over the next four years are really going to be in bad shape.
You let me give -- perspective as someone else is coming from it from more.
Apolitical stance and I mean it is not an economic advisor for the White House just tonight just a regular analyst and regular Joseph -- well I don't of those people.
Well here's the idea this -- the recovery can simply be long.
Long and painful when you had these huge asset bubble -- -- the credit bubble bursting in housing it's just gonna take a long time and that's what rendering now.
Yet but here's the problem -- I've compared the numbers between -- -- with this recovery -- every recovery we've had from the past eight recessions.
This recovery has it has been less than half of the pace of the past ones and the one that the Obama people really don't like to do a comparison with -- the Reagan recovery I'll Reagan's economic growth rate and job creation growth rate was about three times faster.
-- this pace of the recovery so we should be doing much much better given the depths of the recession.
We should be coming out of this much stronger we're still four million jobs short of where we were back in 2000 -- So what about the tax hasn't the president wants he says he wants it that's Ted's signal you know I work for the middle class that -- for state and local governments for small businesses that something that and that according to the White House that there are looking for a -- that help.
The only thing that the president can do between now and election in my opinion -- -- -- really jumpstart this economy give it some Robin tops.
Would be to basically on the make an announcement tonight on national TV on -- saying.
Look we're not gonna do any tax increases next year.
We're not gonna increase the capital gains tax the dividend tax the estate tax small business taxes but look the president's plan -- -- taxing people over 200 dollars and those are the people in the employers in the business owners and the risk takers in this economy so I think that's you know adding.
-- gasoline on to this forest fire we have right now.
Ironic change an invitation of the president wants to make that announcement he hasn't come on -- I think they you know you guys -- until tonight well that makes movies watching yourself right.
That I would be taken our advice.
But I -- -- seriously I think that's a really important navy's lead you to take up tax increase off the table to help a lot Steve Martin with Florida that editorially mentioned thanks again.
For coming -- we got -- -- battery we got its.