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Obama, Romney tied as 2012 race enters final stretch

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    Presidential debates could make or break a candidate

  • Duration 8:29
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Final stretch we -- a heartbeat away right now from the final 100 days of the race for the White House.

And it is neck and neck in the polls between these two candidates that Gallup seven day rolling average vice President Obama and governor Romney tied up.

At 46%.

Each.

A look at these -- is pretty important.

In nine of the past ten elections.

Candidate -- in the Gallup poll taken closest to 100 days out has won the White House.

In our next two guests know a thing or two about running a presidential campaign well.

Ed Rollins national campaign director of Ronald Reagan's reelection campaign in a veteran campaign -- and know where it's Republican presidential races.

And Joseph Trippi was the campaign manager for Howard dean's run for the White House and -- veteran himself of many democratic presidential campaigns both men are Fox News contributors.

We specifically but you guys for the same -- you can think of two guys that know better could how to put this in perspective for it for us but I'll tell you what -- you know it's like all exciting it is a great indicator.

That will tell you.

Who is the most likely person to win the presidential election he just look at who -- winning to Gallup poll.

100 days out and it's tied -- fifth.

And this is gonna tell me.

It's an extraordinary year and don't -- into lots of races together and -- you go into it is not a little momentum one way other.

This is a dead even race -- United States to count we're -- we're pretty close there.

This is gonna be a hundred days of pure fury.

And everybody's on either side is pretty well decided so it's not liking it Republicans or Democrats to move away -- that independent vote.

You can't make any mistakes it's full bore at 1618 hour days seven days a week.

Candidate has to reform and maximum level and this may come down to the debates -- -- embattled Alaska and -- can mistake.

I want to ask you about how important those debates are GO we've got three now that that is scheduled excluding the vice presidential debate.

In the month of October.

We -- viewers when when they take place on the full screen but they'll they will.

Go face to face three times that's it people during these you know presidential bid to debates on the GOP side thought it would -- and when it it doesn't -- -- three times.

How critical are there.

Think they could decide everything -- they could.

Not matter at all -- -- Yeah it's it it's this very strange election in terms of how tight everything is and how polarized that -- of people turning it into into those debates to watch and cheer for their guy with.

Not anybody.

Left it to make up their mind to me.

Both of what's what's gonna happen here is Romney.

Wants to make this a referendum on the president -- his economic policies every day that he gaffes or.

Goes off message.

That hurts them because you're -- today the president wants to make this.

A choice between him and Romney does not want to be a referendum on him.

So they're both gonna go into those debates trying to make those two cases but they've been making them now for months and we're still in this dead heat so could just get out.

Who has the best organizations.

What both campaigns are by starting to focus a lot on right now -- in those nine states that Ed Rollins talked about.

Who can get their vote out not so much necessarily about who who has been out persuade the other guy who's gonna who's gonna make sure there voters vote cast that.

You do that because we -- we saw a Gallup poll I think it was this week talking about enthusiasm and they were saying that it's considerably higher right now on the GOP side.

Eight -- it is on the democratic side and be -- its ban on the GOP side in years.

But we want to be Obama I think there's no question we wanna when the senate we wanna -- Obama won all the house but here's one thing that I think is very important think about.

Historically.

In the last cycle.

Obama had 400 million dollars more to spend then.

The McCain campaign.

This time they're going to be equally matched they're -- have all the money they need.

And even more important because they have all the money they need and all these out outside entities spending money you may not be able to break -- and television.

You may basically just have negative negative negative all the way.

And which nobody gets moved one way or the other saturation exact -- saturation will definitely be there so then it comes down to.

Who has their voters most identified who can get them out.

And this is unity temperature legal teams in -- -- got to assume that this may be like.

It's 1960 with Kennedy and Nixon or 2000 with pollution and and care in gore.

It may come down to being decided after that election by legal means and all the rest of it.

So every element of this campaign has to be fully executed and no mistakes.

Joseph I wanna talk about the polls because we showed that Gallup poll showing them tight right but yeah of course it's all about these swing states and that we looked at.

Eleven -- -- depending on what where we are the -- it's you know -- forward at twelve whatever it is but we looked at eleven swing states to see.

Where the candidates are -- look at this the first -- This is the real clear politics average.

That puts.

The race within one point in Florida Virginia Iowa and North Carolina all within one point in those are -- -- -- right there I guess you know right now.

They're up for -- Florida Virginia Iowa new North Carolina but look at the next.

-- they -- President Obama ahead by three points or more in Ohio Pennsylvania Nevada and Michigan Wisconsin Colorado and New Hampshire.

So is that is significant margin for and basically what this shows us it is that in all of those eleven states.

President Obama has the lead except for one North Carolina where Mitt Romney has eight point 5% lead over at.

So if I'm if I'm the one of these two guys I rather be Obama -- night.

What -- Obama definitely has the advantage is both demographically and geographically with the Electoral College I don't think -- would disagree with -- there's certain advantages he has and one of them is with his electoral lead.

He only needs to win three or four of those states -- needs to win six of these states.

To make it and he is in the lead and always -- it is very close most of them are in the margin of error but you have to at least right now today give it give the slight edge to Obama.

But you shouldn't get misled by the net net and state polls are always couple weeks behind.

Nationally the average of all call it -- it doesn't matter if it's all the methodology and what they mace mainly due today is.

Registered voters.

The polls that that are being done by the campaigns do likely voters who are my voters how to get him out.

And I imagine they are very very closer than this so my sense is the assumption is I have and anybody is around these campaigns Democrat or Republican.

You -- -- dead even race you've got like eight or nine races in each of these states that are Ronald sort of governor.

Race it's a full -- not a national campaign but eight or nine governors' races in order went missing the main thing at this point -- is not ten naked -- Aria that's it I mean it's the mistakes that can take somebody out -- yesterday was a huge it was a oh a wasted opportunity for Romney.

And again I'm not getting in that -- not -- to psychosomatic we're talking about.

The united -- United Kingdom vs Great Britain or whatever we're not talking about the economy you know we're not talking about the.

Let me ask you on that on that point Joseph because -- -- I don't bring up a painful memory but -- we got -- Howard Dean and the screen.

And and that's -- him and it's like.

Over -- like some enthusiasm but it can be something that you don't expect and that just -- The dollar and for the next week that's all anybody would talk about no matter what the campaign talked about -- that -- I'm saying you can create these and end that the president's created these moments too as we saw just a week or so ago so it.

I think right now both both campaigns have to be careful here the other thing that could this still does matter is who is Romney gonna pick as his vice president these conventions.

Can set the table in terms of what the what turf we spied on what are the issues that are that are really put the focus of those -- so.

There are some big events that are gonna happen here in the next few weeks that are that are really -- -- And I want your thoughts -- and you did -- vice president gonna heckler who I think rubio would be a great choice and I think the others are are basically OK I think at the end of the day here what.

Joe's point of someone being tired.

These campaigns get very very tired and no matter how many campaigns I've been and I've been in ten presidential Joe's been an awful lot of -- It the end of the day everybody starts going at each other mistakes are made and you gotta make sure your candidates not the one making mistakes -- -- have the discipline like nothing.

You've never seen before.

-- that's right.

Larry all -- there gentlemen thank you thank you must like much thank you.

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