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Welcome back to Las Vegas we're gonna talk a few minutes about the magic number.
This November the magic number is 270.
S in 270.
Electoral votes to win the presidency.
Let's bring back former bush senior advisor Karl Rove.
Ten democratic strategist.
Joseph Trippi to talk about the numbers general thank you gentlemen thanks for being here as always let's look at the map first the ball.
And how this all breaks down just to review the Blue States deep blue are Obama states currently the red states are Romney states.
Light blue lean Obama pink fish -- Romney and then yellow tossup states within the margin -- And this is all based on polls within the last thirty days as you look at this map overall.
Carl what has changed since we last talked.
Well we've had a raft of polls on the last two weeks since we last.
Looked at the map seven states have moved towards President Obama and seven states -- move towards.
Three tossup states Colorado Michigan and Ohio represented.
Forty -- 43 Electoral College votes moved in two lead Obama.
And three states move towards Romney -- change from a toss up state to a solid -- -- Missouri.
And a second -- to states in Minnesota and New Mexico moved from Obama to lean Obama.
-- the next shift was about 58 more Electoral College votes.
Into the lean Obama category.
And ten more Electoral College votes into the solid Romney camp.
And then the rest of the changes in the other states that didn't affect their status.
-- love those what's most significant in your mind.
Well the most submit.
-- is the movement that we're seeing in the midwest -- -- Wisconsin got a little better for Obama.
We both Michigan and Ohio moving from tossup to lean Obama.
You start adding that up and Obama's now over 200 mediate has 280 electoral votes and you take what -- strong states and Obama leaning states.
That means Romney now is in a position today.
Where he has to win every single remaining toss up.
And -- Ohio or one of these lean Obama states that have to come back in his in his direction that's very significance I think that.
The first time we've had that number.
Since we started looking at except in the very early stages when Obama was ahead everywhere.
When you look at the polls -- you you start to analyze.
Where people are spending money.
And obviously the Obama campaign has spent a lot of money trying to paint Mitt Romney tried to portray him assortment certain way.
-- the Romney campaign has really deployed their cash yet happened.
No they haven't.
But let me say one quick thing before we delve into money let's be clear these are all -- relatively minor changes Obama's gains were an average of 2.3 points in the states -- -- status.
Romney's on the other hand were five point three points.
Per hour on average in the states -- change status.
And Obama while he gained in the lean Obama category lost in the solid Obama category.
And is -- down to his lowest number since we began tracking this a 179.
Electoral votes in the solid Obama states on the other hand Romney is that is high.
Which is a 111 and that leaves South Carolina Kentucky Tennessee South Dakota -- Texas all of which in all likelihood.
Our solid Romney states still in various different categories because we don't have any polling in those states if those states are all solid Romney -- I think Joseph and I would both agree they are.
There with a 180 solid Romney states to a 179.
Obama states -- saying the status of tick.
And while there's been minor movement last week the first time since April that there's been movement.
More movement in Electoral College votes for Obama than for Ronnie let's be clear this thing is still tight as a -- and nothing is is -- set -- concrete.
But yes money is gonna matter and that's funny yeah -- -- -- deployment of money's gonna -- what we've got essentially since may fifteenth.
When Obama began his TV advertising you'll spend by the end of July by tomorrow somewhere north of -- 130 million dollars.
On the other hand the the that's between Obama and the DNC and outside allies.
Romney and outside allies Wilson will will outspend them by a small amount somewhere slightly north of -- 145 million dollars.
-- -- was looking for cash advantage and this sort of overwhelmed Romney.
In the months after he secured the nomination and that that is not turned out to be the case.
Joseph what about the deployment of money.
Well look on the money straight since and it's very clear that the only that -- what's -- being Romney in the game is the money that's being spent from the outside groups.
The super pacs and independent expenditures that are going on that's clearly.
Given the different -- spending between Obama and the Romney campaigns.
It is the super pacs and it in this -- the independent expenditures that are keeping Romney.
Up there in in putting him in the position in -- in and I do agree with Karl that.
Look at this thing is tight I'm just saying that isn't today.
For the first time when you do take the strong Obama in the -- Obama he is -- 280 it does mean that this is that this -- obviously across the board but Romney now has to win all the toss ups.
-- can take Ohio or one of these lean Obama states back.
Joke Carl as always thank you'll -- and a couple weeks.
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