Grading latest unemployment report
Economic panel looks at what numbers really mean
- Duration 5:54
- Date Aug 3, 2012
Economic panel looks at what numbers really mean
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Welcome back everyone happening now we want to take a little closer look at the jobs report does new numbers on the jobs market that we got today and I take -- peek behind some of the numbers that we saw the report wise better than expected more private sector jobs were created then what economists thought.
But we did see the unemployment rate go out to eight point 3% that's up from eight point to the White House by the -- saying.
That the real unemployment rate is eight point 25.
So -- rounding up here just it just a note just -- at a -- you might see data I slash across the papers tomorrow morning since the unemployment rate goes up.
When the amount and discourage workers goes down because more people get inspired to enter the workforce.
And that can sometimes be viewed as a good thing to see the unemployment rate go -- the -- -- the case here.
We're actually seeing this month more people added to this category of the folks that have given up looking for work and right now total unemployed is at twelve point.
Eight million now.
The bigger number.
That we also look at is -- U six number this includes all the discouraged workers all the folks that don't have full time unemployment that a temporary employment.
That's at 15%.
And this is a big number to take a look at as well more than 23 million Americans and that's one and a seven Abbas that are in the labor -- Our -- how affected in this way either out of work discouraged or temporarily employed -- -- toll is joining us on our panel today he's from Barron's Magazine.
Steve Moore is also -- says he's a writer for the Wall Street Journal and Jeffrey Frankel a Harvard professor who was also by the way.
Economic advisor for Bill Clinton is joining us.
As well -- let me just start with you people give a grade to the unemployment report what grade would you give it today well it's.
Probably in the in a C plus B minus -- basically it's the same -- you would have been giving it promotes the last couple years of fact.
It's better than feared I think that's the big thing we didn't wanna see a further deterioration in the labor force over the mid summer we didn't see that.
I'd stop destroying their -- more disappointing numbers but really this is right on the twelve month average of net job gains we've had some around a 160000.
So it's unsatisfying.
But it's still steady if if uninspiring growth.
Jeff -- -- -- the ways that this has described this morning in the many commentators that are talking about jobs report.
It's not bad -- -- cause a panic but not good enough to reaffirm up all the policies that have been in place.
Over the last couple years how do you see at.
Well I think a 163000.
Jobs created is is a good numbers better than expected and if we continued at that rate we would bring the unemployment rate down.
Gradually so I think this will be perceived as a good news politically for Obama overall.
-- -- monetize we all know it doesn't really matter for the previous three months were disappointing only week over the spring the three months before that during the -- were quite strong.
The only sensible thing to do is take a longer run average look over the last year the last two years that's where the real story -- Steve what do you think about that Jeff's point that trend is better.
Yeah look I think that is the point that we should be looking at the two or three year operation that has been dismal I mean we've got.
The slowest job -- growth of -- mean recovery obviously since the great.
Recession since the Great Depression actually.
And so these numbers are in now they're kind of middling but it's dangerous thing because there's two surveys I don't -- -- get too much in the -- hear about.
If you look at that will -- survey they give -- -- that showed up.
Almost 200000 jobs lost that reflects the reduction in the people are looking for work.
And maybe the most important statistic abolish the labor force participation rate.
Continues to fall -- that accentuates the point that you just made Jana that that about one out of seven Americans now either doesn't have a job.
Is -- looking for a job or can't find a full time job those are those are abysmal numbers.
The big question and -- is how.
Do we make it better what's the next move first.
First let me clarify what the long run trend is if you average over the last let's say two -- -- The average rate of monthly growth is -- hundred 137000.
Per month nowhere near what we want nowhere near what we need but compare it.
To the Bush Administration.
Forget the first year the Bush Administration when a recession hit forget the last year just -- the six years in between those two recessions average rate of job growth is 76000.
From the -- per month so this is getting close to request that I just look at private sector applies here if it is even bigger.
The biggest jump in here I can and might get -- to get your thoughts in this -- it's hard to make comparison saying no we all deal.
But when we look back in the bush years we also have to remember 9/11 we have to remember the wars that have been started as well those all affect the economy.
But some suggest might as well that there's a limit to policy and what policy can do for the economy overall.
Well there's no doubt there's a limited to what policy -- -- I think you have to put in the context.
We have an extremely slow growth world economy right now it's not as -- in fact the US is probably holding up better than other developed world economy -- Especially Europe of course so it's not so much what was done here that can actually move the needle on a month three and a few months basis I do think.
That what what the markets are doing here is they're celebrating today because they it was not as bad as feared.
And -- it also was not good enough.
That the Fed will be dissuaded from doing something maybe in -- short term attempts to further stimulate the economy so it doesn't really mean this is all better it doesn't mean that there's an easy way out of this really sluggish job picture.
What it does mean is you know it's kind of more of the same unfortunately more of the same Steve.
Yeah I you know I just don't see where the growth this gonna come from you know we just -- -- Without the ball yesterday I'm not extending that that tax cuts I don't I think if we don't do that.
The businesses are gonna continue to be in a cocoon they're not gonna hire more workers in the face of higher capital gains and higher dividend -- small business taxes so.
You know I think the economy is prepped for an expansion I think Washington is holding it back right now through tax and regulatory policy.
And there's two different schools of thought on that Steve Michael Geoffrey nice to have you -- today thank you so much.