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Jobs report casts long shadows on election, Reid goes over the top on Romney attacks, and which presidential candidate has the lead in Wisconsin? That...
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And that.
That's what it looks like when people have jobs switch a lot of people like to have -- like to have jobs and in fact.
There were more than a 160000.
New jobs added to the US economy.
In the month of July but fortunately that was offset by more than a 150000.
People who gave up looking at the labor force so a mixed bag on the July jobs numbers and this is power play high and Chris are well and happy -- Internet we're very glad that you come back -- CS.
And as we wrap up.
What has turned out to be a surprisingly consequential week in the presidential election race for the White House and what the heck is going on here in Washington.
So fortunately a man who understands -- -- things and can put things into perspective.
Is David M Drucker of roll call whom -- you should be reading if you are not already.
And you should also be following him at David M -- -- -- twitters OK so.
David the this the score -- This jobs report is.
Could've been worse it didn't exactly it is now -- Surged to.
Recovery but it did not continue a trend that we've seen in two previous months of very anemic job numbers.
Now and I I rate this politically as a draw and it wasn't a death knell for the Obama campaign.
It means he still in the game.
But it doesn't mean it up in Boston -- rewrite their strategy and wonder what the heck are they gonna do now at their economic genius candidate what what can -- run on.
Right so so the run -- campaign can continue to do what they're doing.
Under the rubric that he can work and he can win the Obama campaign could say to itself.
We're not basically in a runaway freight train with no breaks -- on the wrong direction.
And essentially means Romney he's gonna win still last earnings whereas if this thing ever really -- South and unite the American people at the circus clown right just to get something new Chevron can just take the rest of the time off -- if if we have a negative GDP in the third quarter if you take the last three weeks of the -- yeah I can tell you if if if let's say August and September.
They can possibly October were all around you know 100000 or less job creation.
Mean Romney could probably.
Go to one of his island somewhere to yeah.
Patient never come back you'll still intact doctor doctor no.
Well guess -- doctor yes it's rich Edson.
Of the Fox Business Network a friend.
Of this dominant Internet telecast political telecast of the 1130 half -- rejects and I don't.
I'm doing just bunkers -- -- you.
You know I mean I'm sort of like the jobs report you know there's there's high points there's -- points it's complicated.
I got him.
Well -- tell us what it means you're Smart right.
You know there's a line in the movie what about Bob where the area where Bob says they're too taxing people in the world.
Those who like Neil Diamond and those who don't and with the Labor Department did was talked to two different camps those who like -- diamond and those who don't they came up with to.
Very different numbers and -- very different indications on what exactly is going on.
In the job market you've got -- -- establishment survey that's where the Labor Department calls up your boss and says.
How many people did you hire or fire and in your boss tells them in the neck goes in TD created a 163000.
Jobs in July number.
Then they call your house and they ask you well are you employ -- how many jobs do you have.
-- goes into the unemployment number.
Which increase -- eight point 3% so two very different pictures.
Quite honestly the answer is they talked to two very different groups of people other troubling sign for the economy typically.
When the economy slowing you see a spike in the unemployment rate it's a good thing it means more people are coming back into the workforce and looking for a job.
He didn't see that here he saw the exact opposite -- 155000.
People.
Left the labor force so that's not a very good sign.
Government lost 9000 jobs and the private sector increased by 172000.
Jobs in this very Jekyll and Hyde.
Jobs report Chris.
Now in terms what this tells us about the overall strength of the economy.
Is there you mentioned the people who -- leaving the labor force is -- right there is there a clear take away on this or certainly it's looks better than it did last month right.
Right and those leaving -- the labor force tied into the unemployment rate which did increase.
But you look to another number for that -- actually helped the broader employment picture looks.
It's called the U six number and that's the unemployment rate if you're someone who's just not looking for a job.
You -- like you're discouraged because you can't find a job and that's actually 15%.
Which increased in July.
From June you know when you look at this even a 162000.
Jobs that were created that some doubt.
Treading water where you need to do to keep up with population -- up.
It really does show a very mixed economy with a lot of headwinds with a lot of problems getting out of this job font.
And while it wasn't the 100000 jobs that we'd expected.
It was better than that they're still a pretty major structural problems in the job market it's very slowly recovering and some steps.
Taking some steps back.
Shorter.
-- and send men are right -- -- thank you very much have a great weekend we'll talk these you tip.
OK David so basically here as you say for Romney.
It's okay in the sense that it doesn't change this the -- the structure of the economy we do not see.
Whatever I would not see every day turnaround but the Obama people were expecting a turnaround.
They think they can win in statements that he thinks that tendency can provide -- the opportunity and I think.
That's the best case scenario for them given where we are at this point -- year when the election is look I think.
Broader way to discuss this -- -- -- are you sarcasm you is that then what would be left.
And that's what my Alexis.
Hub is is that it as Rick said we create enough jobs.
To tread water -- go downhill we didn't go upscale.
What I look forward voters.
Are not so much whether they look at an unemployment rate read eight point 3% and go wow that's bad therefore I think everything's bad I want to know.
With the economy's doing.
In terms of how it will make them feel about the state of the economy and the direction it's -- and I think that.
The best thing that happened for Obama today politically was that.
The expectation was much lower than an actual outcome -- so that's great for him because it causes really good headlines.
But as you alluded to in terms of the overall structure of the economy where it is where it's headed.
We didn't see anything that's going to change the game that we -- in.
It's not getting worse according to the number we saw today that it's not getting measurably better in therefore.
Regardless of whatever the rate is.
People might decide in September and October when it matters that they feel better about the economy that I don't yet see any evidence that there is data that is going to.
Change things such that they're gonna have something to feel better about.
Well and you know I went out today in Paris which you can have by following me.
After -- done following David when you follow me on Twitter at cease firewall.
I wrote today.
That this headline was this on my power -- Obama grateful for weak but not wilting labor market so he can be grateful that it's not going the other way.
But as I point out.
The 15% the U six unemployment rate that Richardson was talking about and that -- includes.
People who are looking for work people who have given up looking for work -- very importantly people who are underemployed they want full time work but they've been forced to accept part time work.
There's a 15%.
Direct 23.
Million human beings.
Who are very unhappy about their employment situation that would be about one in ten adults in the United States and that hasn't expired back.
Correct and then also leaves millions more who -- employees who are wondering about the security of their jobs whether they're going to be able to make more money what their options are.
And that -- the overall atmosphere and and feeling among the electorate that the Obama administration.
And it.
But.
All Americans would like to see changed and -- so what today's number didn't have was actually wrote a sign of growth.
It it had a sign that things aren't getting any worse.
But it's much better to be at 6% -- not getting worse than -- a half percent eight point 3%.
And I think that's.
I think that's relevant to understand is I think the -- court or.
Which is my new favorite term -- in north we -- SEC we get rather apoplectic about hey looks better than -- thought and there was like X consecutive months of of job you know of jobs being created and that's all well and good that if you want to change the mood.
You have to change the economy in the way you do that is at least 200000 a month month after month.
That means actual growth and that affects people's.
The opinion of the economy and therefore how the president still.
The these white guys to -- it -- that guy's machine go okay.
We're gonna take a quick break -- gonna stick around because when we come back.
We're going to talk about what I know you wanna talk about it because -- -- bunch of stamps.
You we're gonna talk about Harry Reid.
And -- I guess now trickling down on his accusations.
That Mitt Romney didn't pay any taxes and -- is dead father is a shame does Harry Reid going over the top.
On his attacks on Romney actually undercut the democratic position we will discuss that when we come -- -- you should stick around.
After describe who it is bespoke quit because of course that's totally and completely wrong it's it's untrue.
Dishonest and inaccurate it's wrong.
So so I'm I'm looking forward to -- area.
Reveal his sources.
And we'll probably find it at the White House.
That it's a Mitt Romney on the Sean Hannity show on Premiere Radio Networks.
Rebutting.
And of raising the stakes against senate majority leader Harry Reid.
Who says that he has a well place but unidentifiable.
Source.
That says that Romney did not pay his taxes did not pay any taxes for a decade.
And this power play welcome back.
And Harry Reid made this -- first in an interview with Huffington Post.
Which is left leaning website political web site.
And -- -- in an expansive interview with which she also talked about Republican donors -- -- -- scrambled eggs.
I seem to be enjoying getting a little loose.
But -- he took the same charge to the senate floor and then came with it again with an official statement.
All accusing Romney of not having paid any.
Any taxes on his huge fortune for a decade.
Randy says not so and how dare you.
David Drucker so let's take -- listen real quickly to.
Harry Reid keeping it real on the senate floor.
The words out that he hasn't paid any taxes for ten years.
But -- prove that he has paid taxes because he hasn't.
Victor -- the truth they are courses that.
As I said I was I'm Brian Kilmeade got his radio show today.
-- -- where I was -- -- is going over to the Watergate building because I had information that Mitt Romney had been part of the break in and we're asking him to produce all of -- documentation from 72 to prove that he hadn't.
But.
The truth here is that Democrats.
-- just sort of took one step further and something we heard from the Obama campaign staff -- -- exist so well he's either lying.
Where he's Fallon as it relates to his work it and capital let him prove otherwise this is pretty rough stuff by even by the standards of political -- yet I think.
The first of all.
For people that assume that Harry Reid is just some withering flattering idiot who he has foot mouth -- think again he's very shrewd.
He's very deliberately knows exactly what he's doing.
And I I don't know this but be that it's okay to speculate right about where you speculating we're just asking questions.
I have no doubt that somebody asked Jerry reed looked -- was a favor we really need to get this tax returns the issue out there again we need to raise the stakes on this.
When the senate majority leader of the United States senate gets up and says something we all gonna cover written charges gonna get repeat.
I do think there's a danger that -- jumped the shark the same way Republicans in 08 -- the Obama being a socialist.
In question you know he's.
The church you went to -- -- at the 120 as everybody says well come on I mean.
Really well if you don't agree with him but and and also at a certain point you know you what you allow your target to make themselves -- a victim correct correct.
-- so I think that you know what's going on is that this is just another.
A line of attack from the Obama administration using from the Obama administration.
From the Obama campaign.
Let me be clear and Harry Reid -- -- -- -- it always -- -- but yes.
And Harry Reid right this time is just the messenger and he's perfectly happy to do this he loves to do this he's good at it.
Any -- -- as far as tax returns go.
There's only so many people that would actually know what's in that I file tax returns so does everybody -- so Romney and his wife -- -- is accountant or battery -- accountants knows.
So well -- -- fault it's available for somebody to look at including the guy who decides whether somebody's gonna get audited or not nobody else can actually now.
Right no but.
That's the funny thing about this factually.
We know how this operates.
In less than the -- investor works for wrong -- accountants he can't know right Romney's -- partners.
Can't know what's in his personal tax returns.
It lets -- share it with them.
Right and was sitting around like laughing with investors in Canada and even pay taxes that's for suckers I don't even do that I correct and and I -- -- add one more thing -- -- what my parents went through for years when you actually make a decent amount of money you're very likely to get audited.
Not because you're being targeted but the more you make them the more that the -- -- little more likely it is the our -- take a look at your deductions and all that.
And so I just find it highly likely that somebody who makes as much money is -- it's not about him personally but somebody who makes that much money.
He's going to pay no taxes.
And in flight an audit so it's it's interesting stuff.
I think it will probably go away and you know as much as I don't discount the ability of the tax returns -- to work.
We haven't seen evidence that it hasn't worked it might turn out to work.
But this level of attack almost tells me like they weren't satisfied with the response they were getting so they wanted to raise the stakes.
All right says let's see what the Internet has to say.
Who's still believes the unemployment number.
Is even close to eight point 3% that's just not a feel good number.
Any kid says how much did you pay in taxes here that's something else that -- great proponent of here.
Because we have -- Bureau of this -- -- -- telecast a devoted to tracking the comings and goings of Russian president Vladimir Putin.
The Republican National Committee.
Has that raised the president's birthday.
Tomorrow and press and the remote the national committee wishes to a wish him is very happy birthday so let's take a look at one of the birthday cards they're offering him.
But they shirtless Vladimir Putin and he says after the election you are flexible for me I flex for your birthday so.
Kudos to the -- for bringing actual actual humor actual levity into the process the awards were once.
Okay we're gonna take a quick break but you know it is it's Friday so what does that mean.
Mean it's battleground Friday and it's Wisconsin day you've been waiting all of you -- -- -- there have been waiting to talk about the hottest most exciting second -- swing state of all of the states that are under the big twenty kind of count four electoral votes Wisconsin is the most interest and want.
That's going on this year we're gonna do that when we come back to stick around.
And that.
Is the little white schoolhouse -- -- Wisconsin and that was the birthplace in fact of the first meeting of the faction of wigs and anti slavery folks that ended up being the Republican Party though the mission gamers will point out that the first real meeting of the Republican Party took place.
In Jackson.
Michigan some years later but that's where it all began for the GOP.
And this is power but now that may have been the case in the the 1850s by to was not intended to have a much blue were Hugh.
In recent decades but this year maybe not maybe -- up for grabs and it looks to be a truce Wednesday.
So it's battleground Friday and we're gonna break that down.
And it -- -- great good fortune Internet that you can say hello to Greg Gilbert he's the Washington bureau chief for the Milwaukee journal sentinel and I don't -- to get to -- but he is the best he's the guy that knows the -- top line.
Not politics work in your state better than anybody else that's a real pleasure for -- that -- here it's a pleasure for me you don't know that yet and of course it records with a -- that -- -- part of the problem but anyway.
Let's get to the big -- first we went in earlier this week and took a look at the big board about how Wisconsin -- -- -- -- -- look at the electoral districts so let's take a look at.
And back.
He's a tremendous amount of cheese and if you lived in the swing state of Wisconsin.
You would have a special appreciation you are in fact the cheesy in this state in the entire union and you produce so much delicious bits of it.
But that's not why.
The candidates like to go there that's not why Barack Obama and Mitt Romney are going to spend so much time in and out of Wisconsin this year.
It's because well you guessed it it's battleground Friday.
And Wisconsin is very much a battleground state this year certainly we saw that back in June.
When we had the recall election that failed effort by Democrats and labor unions to recall.
-- government union busting.
Governor Scott Walker.
That failed and this state it's very much in play it's a traditional democratic stronghold.
But in fact.
It's very much in play now because of some changing demographics and how things are working up there.
So why don't we explain a little bit of -- cut.
We've already been through much of the country we're getting down to the home stretch out of our twelve states out of -- dozen battleground states that we've been looking at -- done New Hampshire we've done North Carolina we've done we've been.
Iowa we've been -- -- Michigan we've been -- Colorado New Mexico Nevada.
It's been a good time but we're getting into the home stretch and Wisconsin is very much in the homestretch.
For this election so here's the way to think about Wisconsin.
The people live here this is metro Milwaukee this is where the largest concentration of the population has now look what's interest.
The way most states in the country go is that the country.
This side is Republican and the metro area is where the Democrats are well flip out in.
Wisconsin because of a longstanding democratic farmer labor.
Sort of prairie populist that are out here in the gray area stern part of the state like their cousins across in Minnesota.
It's the folks down here in metro.
Milwaukee not in obviously Milwaukee itself which is very Democrat but in the collar counties around here in 2008.
Even win.
Barack Obama.
Wipe the floor with John McCain in Wisconsin.
It was still -- lot of Republican votes around Milwaukee so that's a difference and actually has some cultural differences.
One is the folks at the west -- more Scandinavian we're German immigrants here.
It's complicated but.
Basically that's the idea.
Let's look at what George W.
Bush did here.
So that's a lot -- And he just barely lost and Republicans for a long time remember this is the birthplace of the Republican Party Republicans for a long time have wanted to bring.
Wisconsin back into the fold.
In 2004.
They thought they might be able to do it but the -- but you see how far the red swing goes.
So let's talk about first.
How Mitt Romney could win.
In Wisconsin.
And I will take you to the key.
And the key down here is in suburban Milwaukee.
Is Racine -- now there's not a lot of votes here compared to even.
Up here and -- a -- -- Waukesha as the heart and soul of the Republican Party in this state.
But down here in Racine county -- -- talk about a 100000 vote.
Not that many votes in the state and this is a -- that should be.
Republican race team wants to be Republican in its in its heart of hearts it is a Republican -- And as it was.
In 2004 that's what it should look like.
But Barack Obama -- that he did well and did it by -- pretty big margin so Racine is the one to watch if Mitt Romney's gonna have any chance he wants of this.
All red down here that he may not be able to get down here.
To Kenosha county which is basically suburban Chicago but he needs to do a heck of a lot better than that.
The other key if -- Mitt Romney in this news no joke is up here and this is two brown Cammie.
Are no not there over here next door.
Back here.
In Brown County that's greenback is very important this is an another part of the state that wants to be Republican but John McCain got blown out by ten points.
Not cool republic if you're Republican George W.
Bush he won by ten points that's how it's supposed to -- also down here.
We look at Manitowoc county now that should also be Republican territory what happened.
What happened was in 2008.
-- Obama turn the whole part of the state blue and these folks have been trending back towards the red team they voted for Scott Walker they helped him out in the recall if Mitt Romney wants to do it.
He needs for this part of the state to look like this.
He wants to come he wants -- sweep through this whole side that.
One other key if you're Barack Obama if you really want to get it done here in Wisconsin.
Here in Madison.
And this is Dane County look at how many votes is the University of Wisconsin look at that margin for John Kerry.
Look at that market for Barack Obama and look at how high the turnout is this is -- enormous turnout.
Okay so you get the idea.
If you are in fact.
Barack Obama which you want the folks in Madison -- most liberal cities in the country to do.
Is turnout -- incredible numbers for you to offset expected losses back in the -- So those are the keys to winning in Wisconsin.
It's not complicated.
But it is rough and tumble politics -- one of the most evenly divided evenly split states in the country.
So you'll know the -- to watch when it -- time to count the votes so that's another episode of battleground Friday.
Well I'll confess.
I'm a little afraid to ask Craig Gilbert what he thinks is my assessment of -- state and how it's going to vote.
But Craig.
It does look like the president continues to Kerio lead -- in Wisconsin it's been too small to durable right in polls.
How much is the state really -- programs.
Well that's really the question because the presidential campaigns have not been really on the air there you starting to see somebody outside groups spend money there and I expect.
The Romney campaign will go up in the air sometime later this year but Wisconsin right now is not among the five or six the most competitive.
Battleground states and one reason is -- President Obama is kind of holding his own among some of these voting groups like white blue collar voters and older whites groups where he's really doing much worse nationally that is -- And that has to do I assume.
With some of this stuff that I assignment there.
About a democratic farmer labor kind of tradition.
In the countryside.
In most states it's bright red now -- but present actually -- -- -- -- and yeah and Democrats in a very white state like Wisconsin and his wife have to do better among white voters and rural white voters.
Then they do nationally otherwise they can't be competitive and so that's what you're seeing you saw that big way.
In 2008 it's going to be closer race this time around -- how much closer.
You know will be partly determined by these kinds of voting -- talking.
Now do you think Republicans can count on Green Bay and that part of the state -- -- of that part of state coming back.
To the red team again this time is that that trend seems to be holding yeah I think to some degree that'll happen that's it that's been an area strengthening Harrison county and he talked about the -- counties where you know.
Republicans and Democrats are just gonna.
It's run up the score in mind boggling margins but there -- some counties out state counties including in the northeast.
They Obama won by ten points to 2008 ms.
Scott Walker won by 25 -- thirty points door county and at least one of them is amazing it's a forty points way they're girders and when Wisconsin.
Obama's gonna win Wisconsin cut but Mitt Romney can make it close and if he makes -- -- means he's stretching the map if we look to look back -- 2002004.
The last time Republicans had success presidential level.
They didn't win Wisconsin but they stretched it it was a very it was a tight race at the end -- -- sweat and keep in mind the chairman of the Republican National Committee is the former state Republican Party chairman of Wisconsin he's gonna make sure that.
Some money is spent there on the ground.
And they got a feeling that feather in his cap.
Don't we all want some feathers we thank you so much -- for coming over we thank you brother -- for being with us we thank you for being with us all this wonderful week and we look forward to seeing you on Monday where more excitement waits for you now up ahead on the hunt with Jonathan Hunt which I know you enjoy and also.
If you like to do every day we -- use the word from our French -- Us in the end Syria's gonna remain a client state today it's a client to their -- round.
If the rebels who wins it will be it should be -- -- of Turkey it's got the most interest in this is he's given the most support.
To the rebels refuge organization and weaponry.
And that to us is the preferable outcome.
Not an American -- state that a Turkish.
-- state which is islamists but moderate a friend of the United States.
And a member of NATO.
