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Good morning welcome back to campaign insiders on drama -- -- here as usual was.
Doug -- pat -- the three of us for the campaign insiders here on foxnews.com.
Every Monday at 1030 and every Sunday at 530 in the afternoon on the Fox News Channel.
And we try to give you the best analysis anywhere on the air.
About the campaign so let us begin with the state of the race as of this morning the latest polling we have we're gonna put two pulls up.
That were made a lot of news last week and Doug and -- especially as two wonderful pollsters -- great experience are gonna tell you the true story of these polls and number first -- we're gonna put up.
Came out last week it's the pew poll.
And it is amazing ten point lead by President Obama 51 to 41 that came out last week.
And that is followed by another poll that came out.
From democracy corps.
Fifty to 46 on both polls suddenly the president.
Is at the magic fifty or above which he has not been that really all year in any -- And when these -- came out -- to organize email with our producer Mark -- A lot of back and forth during the week and let me just say short of a full on coronary.
Pat you especially really went nuts over the methodology.
And you two quote these two polls and other polls that have come out.
The quinnipiac poll.
Let's get into this -- -- are these polls an accurate reflection.
Of the race today.
Well I think the simple answer is no job.
Bottom line let's set for the audience some parameters.
Since we have a few minutes -- -- we can take.
Some time and obviously.
Pat you'll want to weigh in and drug use while.
But bottom line there were 7% more Democrats.
In the electorate in 2008 than there were.
Now that's from the exit polls it's about as accurate as you can get -- is if you think about it.
2008 was a democratic here.
We elected a democratic president there was a democratic -- we get -- very logical.
The reason I emphasize that is President Obama won by about seven points and given that about 90% of Democrats vote for the Democrat.
And 90% of Republicans the Republican.
Every time you reduce the margin between the parties by one point.
Roughly it's about one point off the -- White allies say that because.
The pew poll that you lose to John had eight plus eleven.
Can biases who -- -- -- and let's put up while we're talking.
If we could please go to chart number two.
Should package because this is so if you are we wanted to while you -- char one became so well -- just mentioned Q so in chart number two.
We start out the 2008.
Yeah they're plus seven which is Doug just aren't their top line there.
And then you go to the right the pew poll was plus eleven run in the poll that came out last week and it if you look at the Wall Street Journal poll in the middle.
Which was plus eleven.
For the Democratic Party.
So saying -- America's gotten more democratic since 2000 -- Which is of questionable as some sort of -- Obama's lead if I look at that is but.
66 points -- ten in the let's go to one.
Andy is we don't go -- you look at one it's the same seven and 7:48 PM vote.
On the first -- but if you look at Gallup which was plus two which was the most recent numbers -- released for there current polling.
Obama's plus two and if you look at the Rasmussen.
It's plus five point five Republican and Romney lead of what was that for war OK with that basically says -- -- -- -- made.
The Gallup poll.
-- a plus ten or eleven.
And you made the Rasmussen.
Plus ten or eleven for the Democrats as the other polls did the real -- would change the -- would change dramatically change.
Is in here's the point gallop when we look at those Gallup numbers up there that is what I think what they have now with with their registered voters sample.
If you actually I believed you could look at their likely voters -- -- and less likely voters.
They are all so basically plus two plus one Republican.
This is dramatically different my problem -- this is.
Is that no respect if -- went back QQ.
Table -- to chart to.
We saw Leo you obviously hard to please -- -- going to to to screen to hate to do this but it helps you folks -- I think if so what you have.
Use and an act of other -- responsibility.
In my opinion.
By the pew poll.
-- NBC news Wall Street girl and I'm particularly shocked for the Wall Street Journal in these people because they're too reputable Mary -- -- well respected.
Pollsters Peter -- symbol McEnroe who bit -- -- are.
Doing those polls.
And I think that these this is the news organizations.
Having invested in Poland and they're having trouble what -- samples.
And they shouldn't be running these him when they do what they are essentially in effect -- -- And I'm not suggesting as any particular reason bias that -- intentionally -- And although our Republican I'd be screaming bloody murder that it was.
He's -- Americans -- for Republicans yes yes that's why I'm nobody's screaming bloody murder no he was why don't settle for what they -- his -- they pay him what he would take eleven let me just say here.
This is there is -- both professional responsibility on the part of the pollsters.
In the -- -- news organization if your poll is bad you have no business.
Putting it out more worth at least if you go to put it out you should've let -- -- our poll shows an hour and a large eleven point.
Margin of Democrats over Republicans -- -- corporate.
They don't do that I got to dig for the numbers what it's doing though it's -- -- talk about the effect it's having it paid an effect on the selection.
That is really bad -- Let me just say personally want your comments we want tweets we want comments to the show -- were you allowed try to answer them we had one that.
Gives you an idea -- why we're listening to you too.
This tweet came in after our show last night can Dell and shown equal to bright man on that it is true all BS aside.
If you -- a wonder Ken young pollster for George Miller -- -- young and he was back.
You're his own mind -- things have you ever George -- Wilson also still in college up.
Pioneered poll he really really good and you followed that Doug did President Clinton and many of the campaign and John Moody drama movie a young job okay.
And so and you guys are straight shooter so that's why our audience and listened.
Don't let me let me interrupt for -- -- the playoffs and -- to set because you while you're very kind of what you said let me play -- playoff.
-- been in the Oval Office John you played high roles in campaigns -- -- in congress you know that the key issue in this business.
-- integrity and what pat is saying indirectly.
And I'll say directly.
And he has his experience of having said to a present a United States Mr.
You're not gonna win which is very Google -- ten point things to do not particularly it's a younger person but but here's the real issue.
The implicit message that all of -- explicitly.
You've got to tell the truth and I don't believe.
That anyone doing a poll today.
For whoever it's not are not picking on Wall Street Journal or -- or whoever could.
Credibly release numbers that are plus eleven.
For the Democratic Party -- makes so what other point okay because I just -- -- -- polling for the president.
You start with the most conservative assumptions possible I could guarantee.
Deep in the bowels.
Of the political operation in the White House they do not believe that's a ten point race what an eleven point parties -- -- They they don't -- mind benefiting from what the effective.
What is the effect it used to build an artificial.
Picture of illusion.
Of great Obama momentum now you know my position which is Romney's campaign has blown.
-- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- May June July they should be 45 points ahead.
But in every poll.
By early August or not.
What they have -- dissolution of the president despite all the economy and everything else is sailing all.
What's its affect its effect is to dampen enthusiasm.
Donors to -- the coverage but could reporters they just look at the numbers even -- network yesterday morning.
You know Chris Waltz was there are treating with a quinnipiac poll which will talk about New York I'm going to be apple is so we're gospel.
In the it'd really all.
In these numbers then become the way in which the race is structured.
It is that it is an act of malpractice journalistically in -- polling the pollsters should have said no.
And I question because I'll guarantee you.
That Peter Hart and -- lack of her own private polling if they do for their clients shows no margins like to play a couple questions.
But the news organization should be doing this they have a responsibility -- but let me just like what -- -- Republican.
I was so what -- looks at me yesterday acquire Republican I would say they are purposely doing this and I would ask the FTC to investigate because it violates.
Rules on -- -- this gets to a question I have for you as playing devil's advocate how is it possible that separate news organizations all within a week and a half pew NBC Wall Street Journal.
And -- And the democracy corps all.
Miss weight well known Democrat.
Record numbers are pretty good democracy corps I think was -- slightly it's almost I would tell you the big question -- you know John as a farewell.
One of the things about politics.
With polling that has to be understood is that there is logic common sense and assumptions and built into -- there's no right answer to this.
But again the question pat and I asked.
His to -- America's become more or less democratic less with the last four years.
I think we agreed to do and by the way.
-- the countries should swung dramatically against the Democratic Party rest assured.
Rest assured the country.
Was the -- Republican so to assume it would have swung.
Points democratic is -- -- More or just from 2010.
That would be almost -- could do swing from 2010 which is the big Republican here.
Would be enormous that -- saying -- -- this pew poll.
The pew poll actually it's raw -- waded numbers were plus late.
Eighteen Democrats is just a bad call what that's a bad hole they spent thousands have been amusing use their names and reputations.
To put out bad data and let me just say.
The -- which you're asking though John I want -- tell -- was a penetrating question.
I'm thinking something's wrong here.
Something as I know what the polls are doing they're not they're claiming not to wait by party or they're waiting by party I think they're -- by other things.
Which is -- whole process noted you can also went by party.
By taking known demographics.
And raising them you know it was -- a good rhythm than just one -- important point which -- that we are having an epidemic of these.
And remember these are people self -- -- going to be interviewed or not.
I just wonder if there are a lot of people who -- just say that's not the -- -- -- I just and I think it plays into something else what you guys have.
Convince me that I don't trust any of these polls anymore really.
And I think our fox audience for months and years has not trusted media polls.
And that's just the fact that the exit polls have been wrong here -- -- here.
-- we saw that Wisconsin just to spread -- We're gonna come back to this and other topics and your tweets and comments this is campaign insiders will be right back.
OK we're back -- -- Packet belch -- way campaign insiders doing a -- -- on polling.
And I think you guys have done a great job not getting into the weeds too much for us to understand that us -- regular people.
As well as to pollsters want to thank you guys.
No this thing so intimately when you talk to each other I can understand that I don't think the public probably can but you've done well now I asked this question.
The NBC Wall Street Journal poll always the one my talent because it's a democratic pollster.
Who was -- Peter Hart Peter and now bill Mac can turf used to be Bob -- but after he died they've done different Republicans.
So they each do this together -- wash out.
The bias so puzzling.
Yet we've just shown they used a bad.
Mix of Democrats in this bowl and their.
Forward to -- -- -- -- to put another way I don't think pat or I would release a poll that was plus.
Just recognizing that it would be illogical.
And by the way it's not based on.
Pat -- wanting Mitt Romney to win or not pretty it is based on what is right tonight as I started to say.
When we pull for Clinton.
Although we used with the most conservative assumptions -- contrary I have always the exit polls I think.
Consistently now are under polling Republicans now we're seeing.
That the pew and internal polls could well be under Poland -- yeah.
-- to my point we know on the exit polls.
That the Edison organizations we have only one exit poll actually exploded real tragedy -- real tragedy we've been greater we had several -- every network have their -- And at least -- do you really believe in competition when you understand that business.
They've admitted themselves that they every problem when at the precinct Republicans won't do what they have too many college women interviewers -- are.
Whatever it is they have got big bias is we saw in Wisconsin when they said Barrett -- -- are gonna win that night when was clearly Scott Walker's all the way.
This is that they have to just their numbers all night.
What we're seeing as I'm wondering whether that might be a factor.
If people Republican for some reason they did they feared that Wall Street Journal or the New York Times particular -- and I wanted to.
This in -- in that -- response -- -- -- -- is they are only about one in ten people -- industry but here's the answer the question I have about the journal.
I tube all the media polls.
Respected journal -- motives even though I thought they don't do likely voters -- -- registered voters.
But the structure of the questions of professionalism I am shocked that they would go.
With a poll like this or the entity is I said the pollsters themselves wow -- to happen.
Or the organization would do it without starting in the first paragraph.
Because you know what they're really good to put the money they spent this money that -- -- Plus it -- the news about I would but it it is wrong to influence a race to tell untruths.
What -- -- -- -- media is supposed to help people understand what's actually out of their reputation of professional pollsters if the polls are wrong and a proven to be so later Ron Oden although just say it all change.
You know the problem is they're not once told now I know once homeless on the on the -- -- pat -- consumer viewers -- -- Eddie -- -- how many people are selected in a typical poll.
And from what geographic and urban suburban rural regions of the collective.
Well for a quick primer.
What you try to do with polls is to give everyone in the country.
He theoretically equal chance of being selected so rural urban and the like should be properly -- what pat -- saying.
Is that what's happening now is it Democrats are self selecting in -- polls disproportionately.
Because Republicans have decided as you alluded.
To John the polls are somehow unfair to Republicans why participate.
What pollsters need to do was to make estimates when they get their sample back about the appropriate demographics.
Now it's guess that its destination but the reason I ask that question about 2008 -- today is not that I was trying to make a political point.
But as a matter of waiting your statistics and I think the democracy corps did the same thing even though Stan Greenberg and James Carville are much stronger I committed -- It could -- -- keep moving parts aren't convoy that's good the only group to follow from that the only -- really campuses in November but meanwhile why a whole other than likely vote well.
This stage given how intensive campaign is because you're still waiting to see if some people are gonna.
Opt into the election but I think.
From from professional and politically the campaign you're -- -- likely voters and your moderate wanted to appoint someone and make -- is why we put the Gallup and Rasmussen numbers.
The Gallup numbers on their party preference because it's Doug said so well.
Of the time or ninety point nine of 1% if -- Democrat.
You know you're gonna vote democratic or Republican is the single biggest -- -- -- predictor of -- Based that they -- a 177000.
Interviews to base what their party preferences for adults are and then below that for likely voters.
Rest -- -- does the same thing -- thousands of interviews accumulates in order to control for party to look at that.
This is necessary to not do that or can change -- demographics or whatever.
Is a problem but the reason for the polling.
Should do likely voters I think at this stage it's important that by the we will see the clear quinnipiac -- they claim to be doing -- -- -- Let's do one more comment and then we're gonna go and do the campaign that it's actually happening.
-- this is from bill 67 for ten polls show Obama in a favorable position in the campaign.
But the White House and campaign committee are in -- panic mode doesn't make sense to.
And here's what's going and I alluded to it earlier the bottom line is the polls that we're reporting on and have been the -- wide Obama leave.
Clearly the White House doesn't believe it's good -- atmosphere it's good for the news.
But there and panic mode because they know that if this election becomes a referendum on the president hasn't elections typically do.
They will -- Scrap what I would doesn't want to think it showed that bill passed this fall what effect this cell phones -- appalling processors who runs you're coming -- -- -- -- Younger people don't know that -- only have cell phones to simply have cell phones is at best.
So the kids there to feels very good question is we don't really know.
We just don't know I'm -- and that's why -- -- tried to do it.
You don't the problem with the automatic -- and things a little -- conference Scott Rasmussen doesn't -- legal barriers -- -- -- -- what the answer is we don't know it is important.
What may come back -- -- another week but let's switch to poll number five which is Nevada a week ago Rasmussen.
This is the president at fifty.
And this addressed -- and likely voters fifty for the president 45 for governor Romney.
We thank the three of us this could be one of the key states that ultimately decides the Electoral College.
Both campaigns have been out there in the bottle lot lately they're spending monitor.
-- literally scores are sort of stuff first I think Scott we know -- in terms of party waiting Scott is certainly a reliable responsible.
But second we saw in the mid term that Harry Reid.
Despite having a low approval.
-- Sharon angle.
By I think it was 45 points in Nevada.
-- it was more wasn't more and I got -- -- -- big blowout so.
Bottom line with the Obama campaign concludes -- three things first going negative on Romney in in Nevada if not the nation -- second.
There is -- -- growing Hispanic vote.
In Nevada which broke heavily for Harry Reid there even Asians.
In Nevada broke for -- read bottom line if the president.
With Asians and Hispanics.
And African Americans.
Pulls up and puts up the formalities he expects to that five point leave it will be realized on Election Day and bottom line.
-- president needs to win Nevada to win the election it is that a court but I.
But in the look at this this is the bottom here's -- working against but I totally agree with Doug that would -- Gloria.
You have the what why I think it's -- worst unemployment numbers in the country they are in Nevada and the high closures foreclosure and everything is very bad.
You have that happening you have but you know the view of the of the rocky numbers and in that state.
It is still a contested state I think it goes to the crisis of Hispanics.
And the fact that Romney cannot afford be losing that much.
This is that this is a battleground state of them a bit of its own create awareness uniqueness and and I think that we need to -- We got other comments so we're gonna move into predictions we -- the -- I'm gonna go first and say I'm gonna make the same prediction I'm gonna add a different thing and that.
The president has campaigns desperate as they -- they have a list of surprises.
Leaks things they'll do anything virtually to get reelected.
They did to gay marriage thing they did the immigration announcement they've got other things in their bag of tricks waiting for the fall if they need it that's -- my number.
Second one is with Ted Cruz being elected.
He will be elected senator from Texas very attractive new Tea Party Republicans.
If Romney does not win this election.
This guy -- major player in 26 Cain for president or vice president.
Here's one point that we have not gotten into it with the success of Tea Party candidates this here.
In Indiana that Texas.
There are not dead.
The Tea Party will continue.
To exert influence from on governor -- real fast kind of real fast I think -- you're talking about is why Romney should be moving.
It will move go bold choice and -- -- right now Marco Rubio.
-- Jindal it'll be something has got to broaden that base.
And he borrowed from mr.
-- And you can take it and take -- as the gospel.
Yeah well I realized I don't think you're a look at you when you got another prediction.
Got my my prediction is that you're gonna see Romney with a -- fiscally conservative agenda sooner rather than later because while the White House -- -- in trouble.
Romney is in trouble -- -- For a -- -- production on a job of earlier this is campaign insiders please join us here 1030 next Monday on Fox News dot.
And every Sunday best to tune in -- five point five on the Fox News Channel.
We'll see you next -- thank you thank you thank you.
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