What do new swing state polls reveal?
Karl Rove looks at the numbers
- Duration 6:54
- Date Aug 8, 2012
Karl Rove looks at the numbers
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Colorado why -- Iowa and Colorado so important to these campaigns this time around they are two battleground states the president won in 2008.
Iowa has a recent history of being squeaker in presidential races it went narrowly for Al Gore in the year 2000.
Then barely went for President Bush four years later.
As for Colorado Hispanics make up 20% of its population and it is just one of two battleground states.
That has one million or more Hispanic residents Florida.
Is the other one.
Meanwhile new polls showing to swing states the president won in 20081 of them being Colorado are now split between President Obama and governor Romney.
The Republican presidential candidate -- hand of the president in Colorado in the latest quinnipiac New York Times CBS poll.
50% going for governor Romney in Colorado 45%.
For the president in this new poll.
The president leads in Virginia 49%.
In a third battleground state Wisconsin mr.
Obama holds a six point lead 51%.
Let's talk about all of this with Karl Rove former senior advisor and deputy chief of staff to George W.
He's also a Fox News contributor and nobody can take apart a poll.
Better than Carl camps have Carl what do you make of these new quinnipiac numbers.
Well first of all we gotta be a little cautious about depending upon one poll in one state.
For example five in five of the six quinnipiac -- state polls have come out the last couple of days.
The number they gave President Obama is higher than the average of of of all the recent polls in those states and in one of those states Colorado.
They give they give government President Obama a lower numbers than than the average so got to be will be careful I'd like to look at it this way let's look at the average of all the recent polls in -- six states.
Three of these states Colorado Florida and Virginia are toss ups according to the average of recent polls.
-- home Ohio and Wisconsin lead to present Obama and Pennsylvania's only state that is outside the margin rare and likely to be in the Obama column.
If you look at quinnipiac.
Florida and Virginia moved into the lead Obama -- not toss up and Colorado moves to lead Romney so.
But if you step back for -- and look at all of them they show three states.
Very close toss ups to states we need them lightly need -- Obama today but still up for grabs and only one state interestingly Pennsylvania.
And leading -- the movie do Obama by more than that than than the average.
It's often been said the presidents have trouble winning reelection if the approval.
Of his economic Paul's policies is below 50%.
That's been the trend for President Obama he he has not been getting above 50% in most states but there was this poll of three particular states.
Voters were asked -- these were likely voters asked whether the which comes closest to your view of president -- President Obama -- economic policies.
Improving now will improve if given enough time and will never improve.
In Colorado all 51% of those voters say his economics.
Economic policies will never improve things.
In Virginia and Wisconsin the numbers are slightly lower 46 and 42%.
What does that say to you Carl.
Well look and remember this is this is forcing people to take an extreme position they'll never do anything good for the country.
In numbered and -- power -- in this one poll.
And again cautionary note about being in just one poll half the people in Colorado -- never will now so this represented a real problem for President Obama and the other numbers and in Virginia Wisconsin are not very good either because remember they're people who say well I like I've been gradually -- we might be able ultimately spend our way out of this maybe you know ultimately help.
But that that's a -- that that's that's a place for skeptics not -- place for enthusiasts.
Another way to look at this is if you look at the national numbers.
And they're reflected in a lot of polls the president is upside down and his approval of the economy really -- CBS New York Times a recent example 55% approve actually disapprove.
-- -- handle in the economy 39% approval when you look inside the numbers even worse strongly approve.
Strongly disapprove 49% that's not a good place to be.
So much of the advertising has been negative really from from both camps.
The impression is is that the president's campaign.
And the pacs that are supporting the president -- are trying to make Mitt Romney a sort of an unacceptable alternative has all that negative advertising.
Budget the numbers much as far as you can tell.
Well it hasn't budged the ballot.
Inmates on May fifteenth when that the television barrage began on the Obama side.
Gallup daily -- was 4540 -- 45.
As of yesterday the Gallup daily -- was 4646.
Nor has -- budged much the negatives of the candidates.
These are the unfavorable for both candidates in May -- -- 45%.
Had an unfavorable rating for.
President Obama today it's 46.
In mid may 46% had an -- unfavorable rating of Mitt Romney 48%.
Today -- what's interesting is -- nature of the negatives for President Obama the negatives are related performance in office.
-- done a lousy job in the economy two thirds of the American people think his policies of either not helped at best or actually hurt the economy.
For governor Romney it's personal characteristics questions about is -- a rich guy who doesn't have a concern for the middle class cannot relate to them.
You know is he you know is he somebody who's got a plan.
If I -- candidate I'd rather have governor Romney's negatives then president Obama's negatives but the interesting thing is those negatives have not budged much since may fifteenth.
After the expenditure of literally 300 million dollars for the advertising combined -- -- governor Romney has said that he will announce his vice presidential pick earlier rather than later you're thinking it could come this week.