Rove, Trippi break down the electoral map
Where does 2012 race stand?
- Duration 7:15
- Date Aug 13, 2012
Where does 2012 race stand?
Also in this playlist...
This transcript is automatically generated
We're gonna talk for a few minutes about the magic number this November 270.
As in 270 electoral votes to win the presidency.
Let's get some insight on it from former bush senior advisor Karl Rove.
And democratic strategist Joseph Trippi as we do every couple of weeks.
Gentlemen let's look at the map the latest map -- this out for you you can see the info on the key -- Romney blue Obama.
Then the pink issues -- Romney light blue lean Obama and yellow those -- the toss -- states within the margin of error.
This is all based on polls from the last thirty days OK Carl what's changed since we last talked.
Not much president Obama's total drops to 271.
With one state -- -- a movie from.
Lean Obama to toss up.
There's also Connecticut moves from Obama to lean Obama but.
The main changes Colorado on the Romney said nothing changes Georgia and Missouri moved from Romney to -- -- and that's offset by Arizona moving from -- Romney -- Romney but essentially not much change in the map if the election were held today President Obama would -- well -- -- to bare minimum 271.
One vote above the total but we do have a very close and any continues to decline this is the smallest number of solid Obama states we've had since we began looking at this in April.
-- your take.
Up -- all these other states Arizona.
-- -- in the in this thing who won this is significant is Colorado army experience that some.
Moving at the -- -- for Romney.
Is a big move.
Because he needs -- he's got to get you start picking up some of the slack here with Romney.
Not you know sort of he's stuck under 200 electoral votes really when -- is strong and -- together.
He's got to put together Colorado.
Ohio has got to start putting some of these states together.
Moving this wanted to toss -- important and present spending time out there cholera.
Look I think it's an interesting approach of the most what are you most valuable assets is a presidential incumbent as your time programs and -- complete days in Colorado and interestingly enough.
Three complete days in Iowa another battleground state that state has been.
Tight all summer it's a state has got more television money per capita than any state in the union.
And the president's going their for an extraordinary three day -- let's talk about Paul Ryan Wisconsin currently.
Is like blue.
But Joseph you would put this in toss up probably.
You personally if I was who haven't -- stick -- thirty days of holding.
Number look I put it in toss up right now I mean until we see new polling data has.
That looks at it post.
The Ryan pick and he's gonna win his own district in Wisconsin -- fisheries.
Usually get 60% of the vote there even when Obama's winning it in the presidential elections he's.
He's gonna have an impact you know how far beyond the district and statewide the pride the state might take -- one of their own becoming vice president United States.
Particularly the state like Wisconsin hasn't had a president or vice president's -- -- Florida is another tossup state and he will be heading there tomorrow to explain.
Medicare proposal and other things what about there.
Well look I think -- is a state where -- it is better for this issue of Medicare Social Security come -- now rather than later.
And 1994 Jeb Bush was running for governor.
His running mate for lieutenant governor made some controversial statements about Social Security Medicare the Democrats waited -- the very end and then ran a robo phone bank under a phony group's name.
-- -- to scare seniors into voting against.
Jeb Bush for governor with Tom Feeney is running mate.
That -- with -- fast forward to 2010 the issue of Medicare Social Security becomes a big issue early in the US generates.
And Marco Rubio -- -- whose views on this are similar Romney and Ryan.
-- a strong victory so I'd rather have this conversation now -- about definition right now I mean I think whoever defines this from the Ryan budget Medicare cuts and -- in terms of the perspective of Florida who does it fast and does a party is gonna do it may end up winning Florida.
-- both sides.
Being very aggressive and I might point out.
Democrats are feeling when it phony groups make the robo calls it the end of -- campaign.
Or thereabouts output of the math again.
Where else potentially does Ryan make a difference on this map obviously he's Catholic.
I've got some appeal for younger voters -- As you look at this map is there are there other state -- working class -- I think industrial midwest where you -- white working class voters and -- in any state has got a heavy concentration Catholics which is Stanley Guinness.
A state like Colorado a state like Missouri.
Eastern Missouri has a lot of Catholics they like how eastern Iowa has strong.
And then you go through states like Indiana and Pennsylvania and Michigan and Ohio.
Big number of Catholics I think -- heaven and that there's Georgia is we see other polls come in and places like Ohio it's going to be very interest things he with the impact is because.
He he should have some impact of Catholics and the problem is that Bryant picked -- me reset the midwest review it or the Romney campaign has to hope -- those -- -- were assigned to the point that that whole region was slipping away.
Before this pick this changes the debate a little.
Puts -- in -- senator he can appeal to some of these people we'll see if it comes back part let's be clear this.
Is over thirty days.
Texas is likely not lean -- right but when you get some new polls in there that would change South Carolina.
Look we have told South Carolina go pole and I failed to -- run and we were very clear about this who ultimatum.
South Carolina poll or else they haven't -- and -- unilaterally decided.
There were going to say the South Carolina we don't care -- you pull or not we're gonna make a deep red for -- but.
This is not the only state that's messing around with us.
You know who you are you know who we're talking about.
You better get a pole or -- make the same kind of unilateral decision right South Dakota you're -- -- -- -- next year and excel to cut if there's no poll -- as soon.
We're gonna make our own judgment about -- in people's passionately that we've had -- and we're not gonna take it anymore.
But now and now if Texas could get the same kind of treatment but we're confident -- can run a poll shortly.
Excellent well you guys have the white boards I've decided to go high tech.
And the iPad -- here and that these because.
We have a new -- Fox News Channel has just launched the you decide 2012 map app for the iPad and take a look at it.
And you can choose.
There you see Karl Rove Joseph Trippi.
You can customize and create your very own Electoral College map.
You can predict using bare what they see on the map see how your predictions stack up against Carlin show.
You can build your own you can even look at historical maps here take a look at this you can see all the how it all lined up in the Kerry bush.
Race all different races and then share your predictions with your friends on Twitter FaceBook or email.
And -- your predictions directly to Joseph and Carl -- trip react Karl Rove this is a very cool app that you can have fun with and I guess we're gonna going to bring some.
People's comments it.
Yeah absolutely I've been a Ferrari started to -- maps from people and they're pretty it's pretty interesting with people are -- with some of these states and now they're looking at it all right lot of -- remember download that you decide when he twelve map application from the App Store.
I've had to -- And the guys -- back.