Report: Small business optimism continues to decline
Economic expert William Dunkelberg weighs in
- Duration 3:49
- Date Aug 15, 2012
Economic expert William Dunkelberg weighs in
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Amber's right now on the economy -- -- little light on and where we are and where we're going according to one leading index small business optimism continues to drop that's according to the national federation.
An independent businesses and we're joined now by the chief economist in that group -- uncle -- so bill we keep -- hearing about a recovery things are better than they they have over the last couple years Wyatt.
-- are small businesses not more optimistic.
Well that's a good question they're looking into the future and of course making decisions about whether it's a good time to hire somebody whether customers will show up -- what we found was.
More owners think the economy will be worth six months from now of them think it will -- better.
More owners expect their sales volume to fall over the next three months than expected to rise.
And consequently there's no real reason to hire anybody they don't expect customers to show up.
And that make some pretty pessimistic.
So how to how -- we change that.
Well there -- There are many ways I guess would you change and I think one of the most important things -- courses resolve some of the uncertainty that they face as you look into the future.
You're trying to figure out what's going on.
Were looking at an election that's like 5050 that's maximum uncertainty especially since both sides are very different so it's like a flip of the coin will -- be.
-- number they -- Willoughby never being both of which are very different how do you plan for that you don't.
You sit tight keep your powder dry and wait to see what happens and that's what -- -- were doing.
It I -- talk to about the -- specifically wrote about in this in this latest report that reflects back on last month -- of the things you say that the White House.
Has presented the public with some Fuzzy math when it comes to you planned tax increase as you say that.
What we're told is that 3% a small businesses will be impacted by -- planned tax increases but it's more like 15%.
A small businesses so so why is there such a difference what are you looking at.
Well I think we've probably both agree on the new greater and that fraction be the number of people that make 250000.
Or whatever that number so let's say it's a million.
Then the question is what goes in the denominator I think that what they're putting in the denominator so number of people would schedule C business income which is say thirty million.
I -- pardon me so one over thirty is.
But we think it should be six million employer firms that's -- really counts what's the incentive for job creation there are only six million employer firms.
The one million over six is more like twelve to 15% that's the way we're looking at the numbers.
Right you're really bringing me back to fractions.
And I thought that was not a happy time for me they'll huddle I think they're better here you know I reset to the white house company in a comment on that because there is a lot of different -- that there and a lot of different estimates.
I just -- our viewers that we did not receive a comment from the White House when we do.
We will bring that -- the -- getting back to what makes things better right now that's what's coming.
You know what are businesses telling you again specifically about what can be offered is it simply certainty that simply getting past November.
Or are we in a new normal right now in this economy it just sort of where we are as a country.
Well I think resolving things is -- is what's important we need to know.
You know what's going to be the cost of an employee what new -- they're 21 new taxes and Obama care.
So one side says they're gonna keep but those sizes are gonna get rid of that well again 5050 out.
How to live plan how to why do calculations on investment returns -- I don't know what the taxes are going to look like for example.
-- we don't know whether fifty will be the cut off for you know where you have to pay more under obamacare will that be changed to some other number.
There's just a lot of uncertainty there and so consequently we can't plan and if you can't plan of course you don't hire.
And if you don't hire course the Jihad -- stated the jobless rate -- I -- Or you know when the big questions is it will certainty actually bring job growth -- and -- we have lots to talk more about with you bill.
Another another segment we look for having -- back thank you for the time today.
Thanks so much.