Power Play 8-17-2012
Romney-Ryan policy push, Election Day economic forecast and Central Florida's political fault line. Join the live chat...
- Duration 27:22
- Date Aug 17, 2012
Romney-Ryan policy push, Election Day economic forecast and Central Florida's political fault line. Join the live chat...
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This transcript is automatically generated
So this is the president's.
Billion dollars cut.
Four million people losing Medicare Advantage and 15% of hospitals and nursing homes not accepting Medicare patients it.
Than the president's plan has a dramatic impact on today's seniors people 55 years of age and older.
And that was not Ross -- that was in fact Mitt Romney Willard Mitt Ron me.
Go to the white board with reporters.
In his traveling press caravan down in South Carolina.
And this is power play and I'm -- -- -- and welcome back to the big show Internet it's good to have you here.
And the Romney campaign seems dog -- determined that they want to have a policy discussion now they're fired up.
About Medicare in a way that people seldom get fired up about Medicare they're having a good time it seems like and it seems like governor Romney.
As found his own the CEO guy the white board guide the explainer guy.
Can it work and they actually forces substantive policy discussion in a political cycle in which.
-- has proven most vulnerable to personal attacks rather than policy fights okay and they forced the Obama campaign to shift crap we'll talk about that.
I promise we will we'll talk about the state.
Of Florida because guess what it's battleground Friday I know -- -- -- were running out of battleground Fridays but in our eleventh installment we're gonna break down the -- Florida votes which is kind of convenient that we're talking about Medicare because that is going to be a big issue in the swing counties -- that's going state and we're gonna talk about the forecast for the economy over the next 81 days is the election plays -- we've got some new consumer confidence numbers today.
What does it tell us for the fall we will do all of those fun things.
We will lavish attention -- you on the Internet -- the Twitter on the chat because we were down with that yesterday so we will make up for lost time promise.
And helping us do all of those things and more -- topless.
You read her at roll call you love her when she's on the show welcome back thanks for having me back and we don't just say that the closure it's murder we don't we don't just give you that status for your -- -- in Michigan State.
Right exactly and it.
Exactly that's exactly the way to date.
You heard Romney there sure talking about his white board let's take a look at the rejoinder is a rebuttal from the Obama campaign.
Now Mitt Romney's attacking the president on Medicare the nonpartisan AARP says Obama -- cracks down.
Medicare fraud waste and albums and strengthens guaranteed.
And the Ryan plan AARP says it would undermine Medicare and could lead to higher costs for seniors.
That's -- surprising kind of act that's not the ad.
That one expected to see at this point in the cycle the expectation was that with the selection of Paul Ryan who -- a budget plan that for.
We've said before for American workers under age 55 would put a dual track plan in place where there's a voucher program.
But then the traditional program but that the idea was -- -- be that you would attack -- substance that was the president defending.
Against Romney surprising.
I think it's very surprising that a week ago I never would have thought we would be talking about Medicare and vetoes these plans -- Yeah you just.
What a difference a week makes on the -- there is that yes it is a little surprising that Republicans had a slower start.
In responding to a lot of the attacks that Democrats put forth immediately.
Write up and Medicare plan and that's because Democrats have been rehearsing these attacks for about a year I covered house democratic campaign committee fairly closely and this has been their primary line of attack against Republicans.
For the better part of the cycle right now so I think now you know Democrats attacked Republicans responded with the white board and now Democrats are responding again.
It do you think you know for that is this Obama team concerned.
Does this show any concern on their part that the Romney -- this is basically what Romney is doing is saying oh we're gonna change Medicare will you took 716 billion dollars out of Medicare to pay for your health insurance entitlement program.
In 2010 so the Medicare is already -- but.
And twelve years away from oblivion so.
We gotta do something.
-- and politically what this is is -- not muddying the waters of Latino voters and how confused.
If they're watching -- television and not reading that policy degree programs like here is Chris they're disrupting watch it together don't just listen.
Credit if there at home in Florida and they're just watching television ads -- all -- long and -- Seeing this kind of back and forth they're confused right now but to the Republicans credit they use these Medicare tax very -- twenty -- did it is surprisingly decided now.
I'm surprised they're talking about Medicare but it where.
Think it's it too surprising effect now let's look at the state where.
Medicare is the biggest deal and it also have the topic of our battleground Friday the state with the most but the highest percentage of its residents.
And rolled in that government run insurance program and here is a real clear politics average for the great state of Florida and it's 49 electoral votes.
47 point three for about a 46 point three for Romney and a whole trend of late that shows Romney closing -- Swing state poll done by purple strategies we -- yesterday was -- that showed Romney ahead in Florida.
We gotten Medicare wrong to a certain extent is this not the massive and is is this not the massive issue that we thought it might have been.
We don't know that we don't know and that's it to process.
Lacks both great like I.
People -- people I usually takes ten days I think you are -- six days out from the Ryan -- usually expect ten days for schools to really reflect what's happened in the news this is if we don't really know what we do know is.
Any Florida Republican Graham who bog down their opened up here.
They I -- people -- -- -- you know all the powers that be in Florida politics opened up to see major headlines in their local newspapers saying.
Right pick that's Medicare.
Right burner for this election so that's that we -- -- We do know that that is true.
Now let's look of course is what we're what we're moving inventory here here and let's look at the Twitter political index.
For today for four today.
And here we see President Obama.
27 down seven Romney at sixteen down three and here's what we always have to finally talk about the -- -- index this is a reflection of how Twitter feels as a collective these the bored out as Twitter altogether feel about these people in terms of positive sentiment.
And you see Romney has given if we scroll down there Sasha and show that trajectory line.
We see the run he's given back a lot of the -- that he got from -- but he still ahead of where he was.
And we see the president down from where he was though and not quite as bad.
And so the thing about bounces -- and I read about this -- and apparently which you can have.
Honest to goodness Internet for the cost of only Twitter follow patsy start -- you can just do that you'll have it in your timeline every morning -- so great I looked right -- where you.
You'll love reading it but the point being.
At this point in the race.
If Romney can hold -- if he's this he's sort of the way that they described to me when I was up in Boston was a basketball game if they can just keep it close.
To the end they think that undecided voters organist break against the incumbent.
Go for them and they can keep it close it certainly looks like Romney's getting something out of Brian is and he's getting a little -- Yeah he has and he is put the midwest.
And it's still a lot because it typically vice presidential nominees do absolutely nothing but the ticket they've heard it like a solid Sarah Palin.
This time though it's a little different because Ryan has such specific policy ideas and writing and so what what they've done with this pick and I think this is.
Changing the electoral -- -- wide and deep into their act calculation that you just described as.
Basically move out of the sun belt and into the midwest rotating right and -- frankly with her younger voters probably -- decided voters.
Not focusing as much on older voters are Latino voters I think this -- -- calculated decision -- boss and tell you that.
They've got a demographic as well as issue implies something that he brining young father 42.
From -- -- state tax.
And polls have certainly reflected not just in Wisconsin.
But that Iowa.
That we saw the Franklin remarkable we don't have that -- you have to take my word -- By the Franklin and Marshall poll in your native Pennsylvania and showed -- more than having the gap in the -- -- the -- going from eleven points down to five points down.
Similar distance in Michigan.
Do we still think that the real battleground here and it was the battleground in 2010 and is going to be the Rumsfeld is going to be I -- -- -- -- -- -- -- Yes I I do believe that I think.
Florida's become really tricky for the Romney campaign but they did end up losing Latino voters anyway at this point so.
Ours too much a question mark -- to -- gone bankrupt line.
I do think it is moved to Ohio and that's going to be the background once again for the audience cycle in a -- it feels like it's a good no news organizations just rent an apartment complex out there -- we do.
I -- they're not -- come we have a whole compound and Cilic I think it's really.
And I can't wait to get out there like ten dollars and there's all -- -- -- the rents are higher than you think here all right stick around because when we come back we're gonna do an economic forecast.
Rich -- he's wise he's also pretty dark -- funny he'll be with us.
And we will talk about what the next 81 days are gonna bring based on the confusing and bewildering.
Economic statistics that continue to confront us so stick around.
And that is what it looks like when people spend their money.
And this is power play welcome back in consumer confidence which is a key measure that economists watch for forecasting the future of the economy.
That as the this month reported out it's the highest level since may.
Getting over some of the gloomy -- that consumers were expressing.
In the in trump.
But this cuts against another narrative that it develop the economy GDP numbers employment and other things was in a stall.
What the heck is going on.
All we need to know for the purposes here in studio three is does this help or hurt Barack Obama does this help or hurt Mitt Romney.
-- does this help or hurt congressional and senatorial Republicans and Democrats in their bid.
For control of the levers of power.
Well -- templates is here she will help us do that.
But let's talk to somebody knows something about where money comes from and how it gets made so that means somebody outside of the political world in Washington to a degree -- -- -- Our colleague from the Fox Business Network joins us now rich people -- I wanna spend more money isn't that good.
Oh dear I was hoping you're going to go to someone else for that interest.
You know Chris it's it's good news is insofar as -- we've had these -- of good news you've had housing prices housing activity is starting to peak.
But when you get to the real structural problem in this economy it is jobs the job market continues to be slow.
In a mixed bag of the most recent report showing that.
The economy -- added more than a 160000.
Jobs in the month of July but there is a different survey that said the unemployment rate.
-- -- you still have a long term horrible unemployment rate in this country it's been about 8% quite some time now -- the Republicans have been pointing out.
And there's really not much in the economic data that points you.
Bringing that number down significantly between now and November in fact if you were to see the unemployment rate.
Economists really don't see where that job growth would come from instead -- drop in the unemployment rate.
Would be more of a signal of people stopping to look for a job and that would be actually a bad sound and look into these jobs numbers they can.
Be somewhat distorting because an actual increase in the unemployment rate can sometimes be good news any decrease can sometimes be bad news -- we've been taking this month by month we haven't had.
Real consistent job growth.
Not only to keep up with the pace of population growth and on top of that to start to bring some of the thirteen million unemployed people back into the workforce.
-- -- let's get help us out quickly before you have to -- away for other forms of raw excellence in broadcasting.
The question is what will the economy look like about 75 days from now about a week out.
From the election what what what is the consensus among economists etc.
Well when you look at what the Federal Reserve independent economists and analysts say they're expecting an economy that basically looks like what we're seeing right now there are the -- and bloomers you say.
-- because of Europe we are headed for recession and in fact many are surprised.
That we're not feeling that quite yet not quite a recession -- some of the GDP numbers that we've done.
People of expected things actually to be worse than they are now others are saying they could have been better but we are still in this.
-- a bit of economical ways right now where there's not.
A strong indication -- yes we are now headed for a significant slowdown or yes we're finally going to get that pick up an economic activity that -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- The -- that's one of the Internet favorite scarlet knights we thank you for bringing your -- to us we hope you have a great rescued.
And you -- express you -- Right now -- -- we talked yesterday here on the big show.
About the fact that the Romney campaign is with Ryan and certainly with the attack on Medicare who -- a focus on debt and deficit in a way that they weren't before talking about fiscal issues.
The governor Romney had been talking.
For a long and about jobs in the economy jobs -- the -- I will be a better manager of the American economy that Barack Obama.
And now they're bringing in the spending in the focusing more on the spending.
Is that necessitated by the fact that.
I cannot consumer sentiment economic indicators basically -- -- level.
Maybe slightly improving and they're not going to be able to run the Republicans are going to be able to run Monday.
Katie bar the door the economy's back off a cliff that.
I think -- that seems to be what they're banking on that date if they assume the economy will remain stagnant or remain exactly where it is from now -- -- November which is.
Good guesses anyone can write is your most recent -- stuff.
-- -- yes yes yes so I.
This is what they're doing and I think adding -- in the Ryan excusing the ticket.
-- just reinforces that little that it gives Romney excuse to start policy discussion instead of just it jobs message over.
What do you think about the decision and this is something that -- -- that something's been reported sense.
That unlike most running mates and Romney and Ryan.
Are gonna campaigned together much more there going to be back together on Monday.
They seem to enjoy each other's company they seem to do well on -- tandem.
What's -- to explain the relatively estimate that.
Well it obviously takes Ryan off the trail.
His own campaign trail and usually you want.
-- -- yes -- exactly divide and conquer.
The flip side -- that is Ronnie just looks so much better with running next to him we side over the weekend down during -- that we want rallied crowds are huge the energy was good.
And honey just looked like Romney.
Back to -- where it's organized -- just a little stand by dialogue the dialogue is about to become.
Unbelievable and -- yeah.
I hate bringing this up -- policies that there's an officer of the west where all my -- I swear I'll let let guys.
An era of the western Islam Bartlett B Bartlett apparently just -- the president -- Tuesday night and I think that is essentially what Romney has done it with picking Ryan and his way short it's pretty clear that Romney's advisors did not want Ryan he is not the first choice on -- -- but Romney not to -- it.
And I think this is the start of what Romney.
We will always -- here this year whenever you're kind enough to come by we thank you mock tank says.
No one watched commercials argument I heard negative ads.
Go watch a commercial they change channel where they hit you or is the great Peggy Noonan wrote in her column today that the sound that follows.
Campaign attack ads as the sound of bullets lesson because people use -- -- potty breaks.
So there is chance opening and opening some of -- -- -- light this year we thank you for being with us and when we come back.
It's battleground Friday.
We're gonna see what's on the big board when it comes to the great state of Florida how it's -- -- -- huge trove electoral votes is going to be handed out.
And will be joined by Florida congressman John Mica.
And who is a pretty powerful cat who just survive day.
A tough challenge from a fellow congress member.
In his primary we'll talk about Florida politics with him.
You're going to enjoy it -- to correct.
That is what it looks like when people try to wrestle alligators or Rangel that.
A little something like trying to get the great state of Florida into your column for -- presidential candidate and this is power -- welcome to another edition of battleground Friday.
As we are down to the big two.
The great state of Florida and the Buckeye State Ohio Ohio coming up next week this week it's Florida one of the toughest to easiest places to try to win it's a very evenly divided state it's -- -- -- we got to sneak into the big board.
Don't tell Bill Hemmer but we got to sneak into the big board yesterday.
And show you a little bit about what's going on down in Florida let's take a look.
And that's what it looked like in the year two.
That was it just a handful of hanging chads hanging handful -- ballots in South Florida determine who would win that State's electoral votes and by extension the presidency of the United States.
And this is another edition of battleground Friday and guess what we knew it before this election ever got -- in Florida would play a crucial role.
In this year's election in 2000.
The nothing could've highlighted it better than the final battle counting ballots.
Down in South Florida it's a pretty big deal that we've had a great time we're coming to the end of this wagon train.
On battleground -- we've been through ten states most of which -- blue -- red.
Most of which have strong blue tendencies from red tendencies when we talk about Blue States have Republican front flip.
We talked about New Hampshire we talked about Pennsylvania we talked about Michigan Wisconsin Iowa New Mexico.
When we talk about red states the Democrats want to keep or have we're talking about North Carolina we're talking about Virginia.
We're talking about Colorado and Nevada to a degree.
-- complicated out there in the mountain west.
But it's been a rollicking ride I think we can all agree but now we're down to the two states that always matter so much.
And that really nobody's gonna get to be president without winning at least one of them.
And probably both and that's Ohio and Florida border Ohio next week because it's.
The great granddaddy of them all it is the original swing stated it remains very much that way.
But in these -- -- in Florida and Ohio we're talking about evenly divided large states with big caches of electoral -- Florida.
If you wanna think about why Florida matters so much it's not just because it's an evenly divided state politically but also because of -- 29 electoral votes it has -- -- 10%.
Of the electoral votes a candidate needs to become the president of the United States that's more now.
After the 2010 redistricting.
The New York State think about that Florida is more important politically -- the New York State.
Pretty big deal and the fact that it's a swing state means that it's going to be in tents -- up.
Let's take a look.
And how those point nine electoral votes are going to be divvied up in Florida when you get down to it is really pretty simple it's not complicated.
It's -- it's just because it's simple doesn't mean it's easy.
It's not easy to win it's expensive it has a bunch of large media markets it's very difficult to do but as you see here in 2008.
Even though President Obama wrong by larger margins in Republican leaning states Florida is split us.
It's division between Republican and Democrat remain very true President Obama got all the electoral votes.
But only one by these two about 25240000.
-- W bush did batter.
It was not a blowout Florida's never going to be a blow out because of two simple facts one is that.
South Florida is a very much like the northeastern United States transplants from down there.
Have moved at -- South Florida these -- here this stretch of candies in the Miami Dade metro area we're talking here basically Fort Lauderdale.
Down into Miami and south.
This is democratic territory Republicans -- -- cut into democratic advantage is relying on Cuban populations in places like Hialeah and elsewhere.
But this is democratic turf this is New Jersey this is New York this is Massachusetts these are these folks -- down their significant Jewish population.
And also now.
The large Cuban population has been offset by an influx of other Caribbean and the -- -- certainly.
But Puerto Ricans and others have come -- they have a more democratic -- And that has changed the dynamic down there so the further south you go in Florida the further north you are in terms of political and cultural thing.
Well -- what's different in the north.
In the north of Florida they're like southerners and they're very conservative they're there's -- strong.
-- brand of conservatism that reflects.
What you see up here and Alabama and Georgia to the north.
And look at that President Obama did okay there.
When you compare to this but you're not getting anywhere where we look up here.
When we look up to do volcanic.
Pretty good number of votes overall not Georgia.
-- I think Republicans are -- on Georgia this year I don't know which often.
But when you get to -- -- you're talking about a lot about a half million votes the Republicans don't get as much on the north as the Democrats do get out the south.
But the margins are big and it's something that they can count out.
So this why you have a swing state you have a conservative Republican north.
And a Democrat.
Pretty substantially liberal south and those worlds -- So where to make a lot it's pretty simple.
They -- along the I four corridor and everybody who's a half a political junkie knows about the four quarter and basically what we're talking about here it.
We're gonna run.
Past Orlando and up and out and that's essentially -- for it by sex the state.
North you got the deep south south to get the northeast and the -- four -- or appropriately enough.
Is the swing part.
Of this swing state it's very simple.
And the folks along here and let's look at this thing about the so here's 2004 -- -- George W.
Bush went and it's as simple as this.
Turn those -- -- you're all done you can win.
Mitt Romney he knows and it's no coincidence that Republicans chose Tampa for the location of their prime of their convention this year because you've got to win.
Here in pinellas county and Hillsborough county and that's Saint Petersburg and that's Tampa.
It matter so much and remember these folks yes there are a lot of retirees and senior citizens.
In this stretch and they're gonna hear a lot about Medicare and they're gonna hear a lot about Paul Ryan and they're gonna hear a lot about the president's health law.
But there are also.
Big cities Orlando's big city Tampa Saint Petersburg big cities young families suburbanites the same kind of folks that decide elections.
In Ohio and Pennsylvania and all the other swing states and so Florida basically can be reduced to.
Talking to the suburbanites.
In this part of the state and you're talking about.
In come stagnation you're talking about huge for who closure problems especially up here in orange county and Orlando.
Very big deal.
Very big deal.
That's what you're talking about when you're talking about Florida is how are these middle class slightly upper middle class maybe suburbanites.
Especially women moms.
Are gonna vote along the -- -- quarter -- that by sex the state and divides the deep south from the northeast and Florida.
Why we love Florida that's why it's always interest and that's why you love it.
Okay back next week with -- Ohio and another in the final installment of battleground Friday.
Well I guess it would make sense after hearing whoever that guy was talking about whatever that was to talk to a congressman.
Who represents an individual's along the I four -- -- let's welcome John Mica joining us via Skype from back in his district congressman welcome.
Good to be really you.
Congressman you are you're a tough individual you made it through -- very testy.
A primary battle down there this week congratulations on that.
Thank you we're glad that's over it's -- much better to -- -- Skype rather than to be sniped that.
All you couldn't resist.
OK congressman tell me.
If Mitt Romney called you up.
And said you know these voters you know these voters on the -- four quarter you represented part of suburban Orlando and you stretch gathered at Daytona Beach.
As to your from Orange County.
All the way out to the ocean.
When you if you're gonna tell Mitt Romney what do you do to win it on the ice or court or what would you tell.
Well I think it's all about their jobs and Nick -- -- this.
Entire I have four quarter well all of Florida's been hit so well.
Hard by you know the economic downturn.
Just got through -- lots of precincts that empty.
Homes some foreclosed.
People concerned about jobs and what the future holds not only for themselves for their kids.
That's the focus and he's got an excellent record of taking businesses and turning them around and you know just yeah you look at it is that work in a tough state like Massachusetts.
-- -- Where they're tough legislature.
Success the Olympics and he he is the kind of person I think we need now.
And he's got to he's got to transmit that to the -- voters.
Particularly on the -- quarter which will make the difference.
Well congressman -- thank you very much for not contradicting me that was the best news I adult and I thought yeah big trouble.
Have a great day thanks very much for making time for -- and providing those -- great to be reviewed thank you now.
Okay Internet we gotta go it's Friday so that's good also good as on the -- Jonathan Hunt is up next which I know delight you.
And also delighted to -- is this and now as we like to do every day we want to leave you with the work.
From our -- charts.
There's a reason he's not running ads on that he losers in all the polls that -- there's a reason.
He had only two lines on it in the State of the Union Address he doesn't want to raise it at all he thought he had a patsy and Romney.
Because of the similarities but now.
It's turned against him and Republicans are relishing a fight on obamacare because that's the one area.
They stealing from Medicare where Romney can actually argue -- to tell.