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Power Play 8/21/12

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    Obama now on receiving end of cash tsunami, abortion at issue and state of the race.

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The mistake I made was in the words I said.

Not in the heart I hold.

I ask for your forgiveness.

Back.

Was Republican senate candidate from Missouri -- -- and he's a congressman from suburban Saint Louis with medical -- he was sorry.

For what he said about as suggesting that and women who were legitimately raped he said.

Had good.

Natural defenses that prevented them from getting pregnant during the attack.

And this is power play and I'm Chris -- welcome welcome back Internet.

And today we have it in a -- of political options where -- -- promised.

We will talk about.

The president.

And -- -- now on the receiving activists -- -- of cash is Mitt Romney has its third straight month of hundred million dollar plus fundraising and now for the first time enjoys a significant cash advantage.

Over the president who by the -- been raising money -- Robert -- was tied to a pork barrel.

And so that's going on we will definitely talk about that and we also later in the show are gonna have a couple of pollsters are very -- Republican a very Smart Democrat the minute break down and tell you -- wanna know which is at this moment eleven weeks out from Election -- one week before the conventions kick off what is the state of the race today what do the polls really tell us what's the trajectory we're -- -- that all out we will have fun doing that.

But let us undertake to talk now about.

Social issues in the 2012 election particularly that of abortion something that.

Many of us didn't expect to figure it varies significantly.

And the beloved by you in an action and dream.

Is here to break this network machine and welcome.

Thank -- -- months OK so Todd again looks.

Let's move the inventory -- can quickly he has until 5 o'clock today to -- to drop out of the race and do so in a way that does not harm.

The republicans' chances to put a replacement person on the ballot for M -- he says he's not.

But the drums continued to grow louder and louder and louder today including the fact that former Republican senators from Missouri today at noon it.

Are going to gather to call on him publicly.

About to drop out so.

What.

Its interest and -- To pull back to 30000 feet and that's what's interesting is.

Conservatives.

Generally speaking have been winning the war of ideas on abortion over time if you look at -- are of the last twenty years.

-- social conservatives may be losing ground on things like gay marriage certainly had a portion that it's been going their way but boy this can blow up.

In a second because the words -- so -- it's.

Yeah they're really -- and of course BC pulling it in that continues to show us the American public.

In general is not comfortable with abortion on demand I mean that -- continues -- across the board.

And you -- Republicans and social conservatives and often they do have Democrats vote with them on these issues when it's like issues on late term partial birth abortion and an error that kind of thing.

Come up again now let's back in the forefront and -- -- immediately almost immediately the Romney Ryan folks issue right.

-- -- Friday -- -- and I don't bat an eye on that.

It's interesting because we are watching right -- table while they are hammering out aren't sees platform that they're gonna -- And getting out reports from somebody who's inside the debate's been good and right inside the room I do inside the room pretty Vegas pretty big deal -- you divide that -- I didn't say -- yeah maybe Internet.

Can -- that.

But it's needed it yet they already feel that there is -- the pro life folks feel -- -- -- theories on playing in place but they want to open it up more and things have changed since the last time the camera this platform you have the president's health care law now.

So they're working on on the planks to include in the abortion language that would also make sure that no money from any subsidies or anywhere else anything attached to what they call obamacare.

Would get to abortion funding and so they're still hammering out the playing we expect they'll have something finalized maybe by the end of today.

But it's it's very much process.

So as I was -- walking in here to studio three.

You know one of the cool things that wouldn't is Atlantic TVs which -- -- and I looked across the spectrum.

News programming today.

And a bunch of folks were just having kittens over.

The Republicans doing this today.

Strengthening toughening -- depending on where you're sitting.

They -- platform on abortion.

On the same day that on a weekend is out there are doing his thing and -- heard one I can't remember who was but I heard I heard one anchors say that the Republicans have essentially adopted -- view as their platform.

Do they have to do this today.

Well you know when they're in the week before they can miss.

Currencies on TV they've got camera platform in these things are already scheduled thirty processor the timing is not good instantly I caught a cold though and they had to reschedule -- -- I think clearly they -- to distance and and top leaders across the border with in the Republican Party from the top of the ticket on down have distanced themselves from -- that this was already on the scheduled him rockets -- big got to do it.

As part of the party platform before next week so the timing probably unfortunate for Republicans but what they're saying is listen our positions have not changed.

We've always been a party that is that against abortion on demand and it only the most limited circumstances.

Sure there are they are they going to make exceptions for rape incest life of the -- I don't know yet I don't know if that's gonna happen so that what happened with a -- Very much could impact conversation having closed -- boo.

-- Okay all right so -- as we look at this though and something that I find fascinating and there's been there's been.

A lot of research and there's been a lot of writing and that's about -- when we talk about the -- that you described earlier met public sentiment against.

You can go abortion on demand -- elective abortion but basically abortion for no reason other than -- is that does not comport with the wishes of the mother when there is not.

Some -- -- circumstance.

The when you look at the -- of that.

People talk about how much some programs have had to do that and that people being able to see him.

The fetus the unborn child and -- -- movement in those states has made it harder for people to call it it's competition -- Never I think too because so early on now technology does give you a picture and how these ingredients forty sonogram -- -- -- conceive -- days before its foreign.

And for a lot of people I mean about the time that they know -- pregnant is there's that they were trying to get pregnant -- there's a heartbeat there's development boom pumps so I think for a lot of people -- -- humanize this what's going on and they see it and technology does change things but it also technology gives you.

Options.

For the procedure itself and how late into -- you can go.

The one -- for Republicans did not succeed on this earlier this year you may remember the peace that represented Trent franks a very ardent pro life guy from Arizona dude.

Anybody -- -- -- hill and you could be more Rick Santorum is like all right then he takes he takes -- back.

-- -- that it'd be cheaper to get that this measure that they voted on earlier this year that dealt with gender selection abortion and -- had this a lot of -- What's happening in China and the stories that -- -- about people being 78 months pregnant and forced to terminate -- pregnancy.

-- and so this this mission they have hill dealt with gender selection you cannot it would be an in criminalize such that the doctor not for the woman.

But for a doctor to perform an abortion based on the woman -- -- I only want it.

If it's a -- and this is -- anger there is basically -- a holocaust for girls.

In Asia.

This is and this is highlighted this is special in India and China trend -- that one child policy that that you know I had an official and unofficial.

Policy but I.

-- plays out of that perhaps tens of millions.

Baby girls should not gone as a result of that that's.

Not make it through Capitol Hill and the president had signaled very clearly that he would be to -- -- got to his desk.

Mom goes on a personal site of the arguments that they worry that doctors would be scared away from certain abortions and while he did not specifically come forward and say we 100%.

Rejects some of these some of the interest groups gender selection abortion they felt like.

This measure was not something that they could ever support.

It's interesting I interviewed a purge waste.

Supporter -- last week who told me I said he is happy with this administration what they've done what she said to me was.

They've done a lot of good things to help us some of her -- side but we actually would give them sort of -- B -- we think -- could have -- even more we're gonna call them out to in this campaign season to get even harder line to ensure that they will do everything they -- to ensure that women have abortion.

Any time and for any reason and so as much as folks will say this has been in this pro choice president history.

On the left their people who say we -- it could do it more.

We'll tell him no matter what.

You do on this issue because the good -- problematic thing about this issue.

Is that for most Americans it's something that they don't want to talk about.

But for about 20% of the electorate 10% on either side it's the only.

Talk about and whatever you do won't be satisfactory.

And as the winds get deeper in the -- sharper it's going to be harder for people to find.

This as sweet spot and accommodation here where they can not blow themselves up familiar with the Internet thanks but that's typical -- We get -- and that is wise and mock tank is from Missouri.

So Aiken is an idiot stipulates -- tank.

-- turning over the vote of the people here in Missouri and letting the Missouri GOP bigwigs choose is not good either and this is of course the frustration is that Aiken was able to win because he tapped into.

This surge.

Outsider.

Don't let the party bosses tell you.

What to do and how and how to do it and now as he goes away -- those very party bosses get to pick and so here's some more chat.

Taylor kaine says I think he needs to drop out -- that being said.

Stupid comments are not needs to keep people from running.

-- will still vote for Obama even though he says things like the private sector is -- you didn't build that prosperity shared it's true but when you talk about.

Rate yes perhaps -- known about this if you if you -- right white male Republican or any.

Male Republican these are not words that you probably it's just a word that you should probably protect.

For data from your vocabulary talk about rebounding from a mistake which I understand that we all remember them -- and sent incident that was another.

Incidents that people feel like -- senate.

I actually look George Allen was in who was in trouble trouble trouble.

Yeah.

There yes exactly but the the deal.

That I thought with this -- that he put out today -- opening ad of the general election was an apology -- -- -- -- I'm Christina.

I am and I wish if you open up your campaign.

Briefly you're spending money to tell make sure everybody misery -- -- that negative make sure you know that -- Missouri does is set and then follow -- up with an apology.

I say this if he doesn't go.

The national stage you appeared in episode one out from underneath them because it's just even even if he apologize even if he does whatever you did you -- -- what it looks just localized.

Really not asking for him to drop out right.

Hello does not asking him to -- What do you -- the that four or 5 PM today walking away voluntarily.

Well there's a consideration for him in this that he.

There's he if he drops out where you go.

And what is he got to lose by saying and personally right he's still gonna make a run at this and feel that he actually has chance to win it's tough.

-- much I tell you what you gotta feel bad for the guy.

This is -- not this day a no fun day.

Again in a foot and mouth and whether -- get it out in time.

We'll see we'll -- chamber and we thank you very much and of course.

By the way you know be with you down at the Republican National Convention until then until then yes that's right and that's -- we're in Iraq team down to the ground -- that's right -- on the road -- and Graeme thank you okay we're gonna take a quick break -- when we come back we're gonna talk about the state of the race we're gonna talk about what that's going on out there we're gonna talk about President Obama a slipping further into the -- in his campaign accounts what it means and how we got there you may not -- You'll like it so stick around.

I don't think the governor Romney is somehow responsible for.

The death of the woman that was -- that and but keep in mind this is mad that I didn't -- for pre approved I did not produce and -- -- -- until.

Has barely -- and Iran wants.

That was President Obama in a briefing of reporters at the White House -- kind of like a mini.

Pressed -- -- -- mini press conference that he did I yesterday.

Explaining and add.

That was produced by the super -- that he supports that supports him.

That implicated Mitt Romney in a woman's death from cancer and Kansas City in 2006 in this power play welcome back now the reason.

That President Obama.

Maybe took a softer approach with that -- about that -- that he might it certainly didn't get up and -- -- or certainly didn't denounce it.

Is the fact that he is getting absolutely obliterated.

On fund raising right now.

And he needs that super pac which is also getting blown out on fund -- to get some money together and try to help him out because the president's strategy so far.

To run a huge very expensive quite negative campaign.

Is running into the obstacle which is Mitt Romney's raising more and doing more.

So that's kind of interest -- the way that this works out as a matter of fact.

I found its own interest in this morning and I wrote about it my power play which you can have simply for the cost of the Twitter follow -- he's firewall.

I urge you encourage you enthusiastically.

To participate in this Twitter party.

And we were by the -- going to be joined by Matthew Cooper from National Journal that he.

Hopefully nothing bad has befallen him other than missing the chance to talk to you but I do want to talk to you a little bit about this.

And so.

When we look at the president's fundraising.

And how this has gone.

You can see something very clear.

And that is that the president and I wanna show you right now as a matter of fact I don't want to miss the opportunity the -- that was in the oh and I can't show you the cartoonist that was a -- -- -- -- -- in the Cleveland plain dealer today I would have -- go over there and look at it.

That shows.

President Obama's 2012 self with some double points throwing.

The Angel Obama 2008 off a cliff.

It was really good if you consider it but.

The truth is that for the president he's got this very negative campaign that he's trying to fund with all this go.

And it's tough.

And -- better maybe I can show you the Twitter political index would that be okay.

Okay good I can show you Twitter political index today and you see that did -- -- political index which measures.

How Twitter as a whole feels about these two candidates Mitt Romney and Barack Obama they're both drop back.

And this is a consequence perhaps of the president's.

Negativity and how sharp he has then and as a matter of -- yesterday on the attack even in the presidential.

Press briefing.

Remain on the attack talking about Mitt Romney's medical records talking about -- tax returns -- about all of these things and staying on the attack.

Against Romney.

So Twitter political index shows that the president and -- both very low.

That's certainly not exactly what Mitt Romney once he'd like to be back up where it was after the -- announcement but certainly he can be happy.

That the president's down in the suit with him.

And and that's true and one thing I want you to remember as we talk about campaign funds and we talk about president who ran a deficit again.

This month and now trails actually.

In cash on -- that's he not someplace the president thought he would be at this point remember that as this goes on.

Prior to the 2008 election dating back to 1976.

Both major party candidates always participated in matching funds from the Federal Election Commission you know that little box that you checked.

At the top of your tax return or don't -- if you're being that says that you'd like to contribute two dollars to presidential campaign the way that works is if you get that money.

If your candidate major party to get that money for any party he get that money you -- to be bound by rules about how much you can raise and spend it's it's designed to hold down fund raising and spending overall and create security something Democrats wanted.

Because they thought that the idea is that this would keep them in -- with Republicans who traditionally -- better raising money well President Obama was the first major party candidate in history to say no he rejected that -- 2008 and spent John McCain into absolute oblivion.

Bob Crowley who's gonna win anyway but he's certainly blew out John McCain when it came to fund -- and he raised more money 746 million dollars -- anybody before they thought they do it again.

But guess what happened Mitt Romney is now beating Barack Obama at his own game because Obama blew up the system in 2008 Romney felt no requirement whatever to do the same thing.

So he absolutely said he wouldn't be bound by these matching funds and now he's had three consecutive months which raised more than a hundred million dollars he's got more cash on hand and as we head into the stretch Mitt Romney is going to do to Barack Obama.

But Barack Obama did to John McCain and and you know who made it possible.

Barack Obama.

So chew on that for a little bit think about that for second we're gonna take a quick break and when we come back our -- panel will be with us we'll talk about the state of the race eleven weeks.

And those.

Are the candidates as they dash into the home stretch.

The 2012 presidential election Barack Obama and Mitt Romney we are a week ahead of the conventions.

We -- a week ahead.

The closing argument final two months.

That matter so much so as we get ready.

To look -- we as we get ready to see this battle this massive battle play out multibillion dollar battle play out across the country.

What's the state of the -- power -- welcome back.

Now the deal Liz this is a close race everybody knows this is a close race but it's a volatile place.

And there are signs it's sort of like pollsters are sort of like economists.

If you -- if you have three data points you can get together theory for almost -- thing.

But we have with us today a -- handle we're not those kind of guys these are.

These are these are reputable -- I'm sad to say these are ready.

Suitable.

A time tested pollsters.

Welcome to the show in New York.

Bernard Whitman he's -- former pollster for bill with the big dogged Clinton he is author.

52 reasons to vote for Obama if he if you want to hire him to be pulling for you should find him at the Winston group are nothing -- group.

My apologies don't go there you'll never you'll never get him there.

Product if you want to -- Winston group you want David Winston he has one of the preeminent Republican pollsters use old.

Races at every level around this country for a long time one of the most listen to guys.

On the red team for pulling in you can get it to -- group welcome gentlemen.

Thank you welcome -- -- okay I want to start out with let's look at real clear politics average of polls.

47 point two to 44 point seven Obama over Romney.

We can't give statistical significance to the real clear politics average of polls that this is essentially a tight race.

Obama Robbie seem a little momentum that this one is.

If Dan rather with this he would say that it's hotter than the -- and evil or something like that I want you guys to start out and give you one minute recitation what's the state of the race right now.

Bernard let's start with you.

One there's no question that the race is a dead heat and the truth is this is really all -- not going to be a national campaign -- signed -- to be.

-- campaign waged in key states that ultimately is gonna come down to.

About forty or fifty counties where this swing voters in those states will decide the race and if you look at.

The internals of the polls you see some positive signs I think for a bombing could arguably say it is a couple positive -- that's in there for Mitt Romney but I think ultimately.

The Ryan pick is going to be decisive here in the reason I say that is as follows.

Ryan clearly is tied with ending Medicare seniors love Medicare -- a lot of seniors in Florida.

Seniors.

Vote.

And I Hispanics.

Populated great section of the electorate in Florida.

And Hispanics I don't think will.

Be very popular the group with Paul Ryan did it is on budget which slashes education slashes health care both very important.

Hispanics and the fact that rubio -- on the tickets I think the -- -- hopefully costs of Florida.

And finally I think the Ryan -- does not deliver Wisconsin and without sort of Wisconsin.

Mitt Romney loses the election.

So your state you can you say the state of the race.

Is that it's a tie but that the president is gonna start to pull away after the conventions.

I think it's going to be remain awfully close through the debates I think ultimately.

Wind the American people see -- vision shared prosperity vs a winner take all approach that Mitt Romney advocates.

All to believe those voters on the margins in those key counties will break towards a -- and as we see.

That fault get closer and closer to November I think that's -- we'll see the president maintain a few points lead.

Into into the final race but I think it's very much going to be like -- doesn't force -- very close.

Race and in popular vote and ultimately Electoral College in the -- -- come down to Obama's benefit.

So Whitman say -- It's a guy.

Late -- break for the incumbent and give the president a couple points that he needs as he rolls into Election Day mr.

Winston what's -- -- well I.

I don't see your initial assessment I mean I think this race is clearly and you've seen surveys have -- sort of bounce around on both sides but ultimately when you put them together looks pretty even I think.

I think Gallup had Romney up by 21 or two and then and Rasmussen had a one or two as well and then there's another -- that heads the -- Gas is so I mean it's it's basically and let's sort of where I -- his way I do disagree and his ideas in this of the big national forest and I think.

That starts -- was the ultimate contacts and and in terms of this -- -- and that is after 42 months 8% or higher unemployment.

The entire focus on a national -- strapped economy.

I think initially the Romney campaign -- -- -- just simply make this a referendum on the president -- and ultimately what emerged out of that was while people are clearly dissatisfied with the president's economic performance.

They aren't willing clay 52 card pick up -- the economy they want to know what.

Mitt Romney's gonna do in terms of the economy and that's why -- and he saw a selection of Paul Ryan.

That signals a pretty significant shift in the strategy from -- running campaign from.

It being a referendum on on the president to we're gonna define a choice -- said that.

One of the reasons the president was still in this race is who's doing a pretty good job of defining what that choice might look like.

And policies of the past verses that are going forward I think that's what you saw in terms of the Ronnie come -- coming back and trying to make it a choice defining their trust.

I think it's -- sports center right country.

If they can lay out an economic plan that people combine into I think people are looking to make that job.

And so my sense is if they're successful and laying out an economic senate -- economic plan.

They can win this I don't know what point in time in the fall but when the debates -- move forward.

And look it could be actually a margin that might be -- or could expand the.

Very quickly ten seconds -- I want to ask you I've been held forth there's two possible scenarios here one is for eight a small the kind of one or two point victory for President Obama but -- Mitt Romney's gonna win it may -- larger because it would mean there was a tectonic shift crazy talk not crazy talk.

I don't think it's crazy talk but don't think it's like that happen I think it's going to be like it's a very similar doesn't for probably 5148.

Little wider margin Electoral College but I tell you one thing that does concern and the president's behalf is that a recent survey shows by two to one.

People think Obama's gonna win -- so it's going to be kind of -- team Obama to make sure that his voters get out to the polls this November.

Bernard good insights thank you very much David thank you very much very good thank you okay Internet and you are as always good stuff.

And up next on the hunt -- Jonathan Hunt and now.

As we like to do every day we want to leave you with the work.

From our friend Charles.

Irony is that that clip you showed about him answering a question about a tax return.

Was in response to a question of how come -- so negative.

You know I'm not negative I'm just -- him on tax and there's.

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