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Taking stock of 2012 swing states

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    Where do battleground polls stand?

  • Duration 4:35
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It doesn't brand new -- -- in the race for the White House and that they focus on that doesn't swing states across the country that could decide this election.

In Nevada for example -- with six electoral votes up for grabs a survey commissioned by the Las Vegas review journal and KLA STV shows that President Obama.

Had a slight lead there 47 to 45%.

But the poll also shows that voters seem evenly divided on governor -- -- VP pick.

Congressman Paul Ryan joining us now.

Bernard Whitman the former pollster for President Clinton and the author wrote 52 reasons to vote for Obama and Scott Rasmussen of independent pollster and president of the Rasmussen.

Reports dot com -- great to have -- be here today thank you when you see these polls at the moment the latest polls in -- swing states what.

Is the biggest name jumps out at you knowing that the race is tightening up.

The biggest thing that jumps out at me is all the new swing states are states that we've fought a little while ago working and we're pretty safe for President Obama so the race is becoming a little more competitive.

For Mitt Romney.

And that's probably good if you're Republican because Romney was trailing in the Electoral College but we are talking now about.

Las Vegas has a swing state Wisconsin as a swing states some people think Michigan Pennsylvania might be in play I think that's a reach.

These are states who would not have been contested her -- be contested early in the year.

And the effect of Paul Ryan at this point we're showing them some -- it hasn't had that much of an effect in some areas but.

How do you think it's playing out in the swing states at this point.

I think ultimately the Ryan pick -- hurt the Romney ticket and here's why I think that voters particularly in Florida.

Are going to reject -- Romney Ryan plan to end Medicare they're going to reject the Romney Ryan plan -- cut education I think ultimately.

The Brian picked his take and the Republicans off message instead of folks in the economy where they -- have a debate we're talking about.

Medicare we're talking about abortion we're talking about the woman's right to choose not simply reproductive health care choices but economic opportunity and so I think.

That could cost -- Florida in the problem with that is.

If Romney does not win Florida he has to and every other battleground state or he loses the election in at this point I think Virginia.

Being a potentially new Bellwether state taking over from the role in Missouri -- Virginia is likely to go to Barack Obama.

Well that's very interesting and that you know I don't lower right now in August of course and so many people are just not paying attention yet you are seeing the polls are tightening up.

Given that fact going forward that in there the stakes remain quite high because we could see a lot of movement once the -- -- Well let's be real clear about what's been happening we -- this race every single day and while there have been occasional blips for the last eight weeks there hasn't been any really significant movement.

One of the reasons is only about eight or 10% of the voters are -- committed in any way.

In the most significant fact about those uncommitted voters they're not paying attention only 13% of the uncommitted voters are following the campaign right now.

So there will be changes we have the conventions coming up we have the debates coming up we have economic news that will shift in what I expect to see is what ever shipped to see in the national numbers.

You'll see the same shift in these swing states in other words of President Obama -- five points that are nationally you'll see him doing better in Virginia in Las Vegas of Mitt Romney despite points better.

You'll see him doing better and places like Virginia and it.

And the uncommitted voters though there he in the east swing states at this point absolutely and in fact we're really not happening in national campaign revenue national conversation.

But ultimately this campaign comes down to really fifty counties where the swing voters in those -- -- -- we decide the election I think that.

We're gonna see.

-- pretty locked up race statistically time from now through mid September I would expect after Tampa.

Next week -- you'll get a bounce after.

They connection particularly jacking an emphatic about it it's gonna be sort of settle into mid September we'll see where that the new on polls are.

And it ultimately it's gonna be the debates throughout October that will define where the race sets.

But I you're tracking and every day we are becoming ever update every moment and you right now the conversation is Paul -- -- -- will be different.

If the end of the day this is a choice between Mitt Romney and Barack Obama mostly a referendum on the president.

And that's the reason it's close because people are evenly divided on the president.

All right aren't done with -- and the conversation there but I know that you guys are watching this very very closely and we love getting your insights thank you so much for joining today.

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