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In -- campaign 2012 segment tonight a brand new Fox News poll shows that Mitt Romney has taken the lead over Barack Obama among likely voters.
And among independents Romney is ahead by ten points joining us now the senior Washington editor for ABC news.
-- -- fox poll the last one before this the show something very different and it was an eight point lead.
For Barack Obama what summer -- a lot of people that I now but this one has that virtually tied -- things going on here.
I think a couple things one is that this is a poll of likely voters and it's a little bit different than some of the previous polls.
But I think this is likely where the races right now it's a tight race it is a coin flip.
Either way it is a handful of battleground states that are gonna determine this and you know we've covered so many different dots and turns in this race so far but really we are where we started which is these two candidates are neck and neck.
Poll has a survey of the swing states Ohio.
Wisconsin and Florida the president is up 3% in Florida he was 6% up last time it was pulled.
6% -- in Ohio what is going on in Ohio I know they have a slightly better employment numbers.
And the country at large.
John Kay sick has had some struggles there although -- got a lot done.
Talk talk to us about Ohio a critical state for both candidates.
Absolutely critical particularly for a Republican candidate this have a lot of folks perplexed and I think it's.
Emblematic of the struggles that both candidates have had in terms of connecting with white working class voters they have a similar struggle.
And I think for voters in Ohio where the economy as you say -- a little bit better of late.
They they still like President Obama they may not entirely like his policies -- opened the shop around but they certainly aren't convinced by Mitt Romney so.
The pres Obama feeling like he's in better shape in that particular state and in some of the other battleground states Ohio this is so important if you're Republican running for president you really can't win unless -- win Ohio.
I'm looking at the break down for the independent voters are -- and and both they the CBS poll.
And I believe in the fox poll quinnipiac show that Romney actually does much better than the president.
Among independent voters and most of those that -- -- undecided.
I have some polls breakdown undecided from independent.
But that has to get -- not cause for mild optimism to the Romney people does that not.
No question and -- some indication in this polling that it's a Paul Ryan balance independence viewing him.
In these battleground states more favorably than they view Joseph Biden.
And that's really the only thing that's changed Majorly in the campaign in the last couple weeks is the addition of Paul Ryan to the ticket so it's given.
A chance to to give a fresh make over to the campaign to put forward a different set of of images is well as proposals in terms of what he's talking about with Medicare so these are the voters -- the -- election.
We know that Democrats are gonna turn out for present -- -- we know that Republicans are gonna turn out for Mitt Romney it is those critical independents as always to determine election.
Now recommend we have the New York Times today with this Medicare.
That I showed that and in critical states -- swing states.
Voters and according to that poll gave Obama the advantage and -- and Medicare now some are saying that's.
That the addition of Ryan -- the ticket.
That that's actually acting as a downward pressure at least on that poll question but it doesn't seem to affect seniors in Florida -- are still supporting -- Illegal it's very confused -- Yet Democrats traditionally haven't Andy it an edge on things like Medicare also and I trust in protecting health care.
But I think -- for Democrats now if they see this is an opening if they can exploit that gap and widen that gap and get -- you get seniors to vote on that gap.
It's extremely important for their prospects right now Paul Ryan when he goes around talking about Medicare of one of the first things he says is the figure 55 or older don't worry about this don't listen to -- about the say it doesn't affect you.
It's only for people who are younger so they're making a different argument it's a little bit more nuanced.
Then now -- politics is used to sometimes but this gap is always going to be important because of the way the seniors vote they tend to vote on this issue.
More often than not and we know that the scare tactics have already been employed by Democrats in previous campaigns they're ready to do that all over again they know the playbook that they're gonna run against Paul Ryan.
Was appalling done before Paul Ryan changed from those baggy shirts.
Of the -- asserts that's it that's what I really want it now lot of girls they're up our messaging -- My on Twitter account on that -- -- like the little little tighter so many acts.
Combined you have to finds there's -- difference here between the Ryan of the injury and Terry Ryan to today's Ryan maybe that's part of now that's gotta be it retailer posting -- -- right mom jeans or not it's got to be a lot less yeah exactly -- to see you thanks so much.
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