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Power Play 8/24/12

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    The latest political news straight from the Beltway with Chris Stirewalt

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And that.

Was the last human beings who have won the state of Ohio.

And not gone onto in the presidency Richard -- house Nixon who as vice president in 1961.

Ohio but then lost a nail biter of an election.

To then senator Jack Kennedy and this is power play and -- and Chris -- -- and welcome welcome.

To the granddaddy of them all the biggest baddest.

Battleground Friday.

Takes this to Ohio all roads of course are gonna lead to Ohio when we're talking about battleground states it's always a battleground state and its history shows us if you win Ohio.

You're gonna win the presidency except for these rare exceptions -- Thomas 1944 but by and large since they've been a state.

If you can win Ohio and -- big trove of electoral votes.

You're gonna get the White House so it matters so so much.

We've been through eleven great weeks as we've gone through the country coast to coast -- -- red leaders true swing states.

We've been in New Hampshire we've been -- Pennsylvania Virginia North Carolina we've been -- Michigan Wisconsin Iowa Colorado New Mexico and Nevada.

Never understand the final two and it's always the final two when we talk about presidential elections Florida and Ohio here's why -- different than everybody else.

They're big and they are truly swing states these are not states that go from.

Bright red to blue occasionally these are states that are pretty evenly divided and they have a huge trove of electoral votes so.

All roads are gonna lead to these two states at the end in Ohio is going to get extra attention this time not only.

Because of its electoral votes but also because of where it is it's right in the heart.

Of the bunch of states that are going to be competitive it's in the middle of Pennsylvania Michigan and it shares some attitudes.

And some political realities.

With its cousins that here in Wisconsin and Iowa.

Manufacturing.

Traditional union president's.

Midwestern Rust Belt states that kind of stuff so you're gonna see both candidates.

Blitzing Ohio over and over again as the weeks wind down towards the end of the year right towards the end of the election cycle.

You'll see Barack Obama and Mitt -- spending tens of millions of dollars and -- and their allies spending tens of millions of dollars in Ohio and being on the ground almost all the time.

So how -- -- -- Ohio.

That's the big question your Mitt Romney.

You got a problem you've been pretty consistently trailing it's not a huge margin but polls have shown Mitt Romney pretty consistently trailing President Obama he hasn't had a lot of movement.

You gotta bounce in Wisconsin to get -- in Virginia Florida he did pretty well -- Paul Ryan big game a little -- Ohio though the president's so seen his numbers -- a little bit.

But Mitt Romney hasn't been able to break out of the mid forties so how does Mitt Romney do it that's question one.

Question two and this is one that is works for every state but question -- -- How -- the suburbanites.

Going to vote in this election.

What's driving them.

Question three what -- Barack Obama's secret strength what is he counting on to deliver Ohio for him on election night we will tell you all of that and probably some more.

Okay so let's get right to as they would say in Ohio the heart of the matter.

And let's look here.

2008.

This is a big margin of victory for President Obama -- -- by a higher standards more typical at a 52 to 47 more typical.

What George W.

Bush did -- John Kerry with a nail biter out of all of these millions of votes cast out of five million votes -- -- -- more than five and a half million votes cast.

Just a little more than a 100000 that's a pretty small margin for such a big -- So.

This is a more typical map and this is more typical outcome for a narrowly divided state so let's look.

We say all roads lead to Ohio but one wrote in particular is very important and it's interstate seventy.

The comes from all the way over here in Baltimore where -- they would -- there in Ballmer.

But it comes across here over the northern panhandle West Virginia and comes out to the Indiana border and you know what it does very convenient for us.

It divides the state into a democratic north and Republicans have yes there are exceptions yes there are blue spots in the south.

Yes there red spots in the north.

But when we talk about what's going on in the state on the northern side about -- these are this is Cleveland this to weed out this is Youngstown Akron can't.

Six large cities.

Rust Belt struck by the loss of manufacturing for forty years have seen -- massive out migration but still a huge population base there and very much traditionally.

Blue collar union label Democrats in the south you got the German where you've got the German Catholics like John Boehner down in Cincinnati.

Social conservatives these folks look who's here West Virginia Kentucky the politics and here reflect.

The apple action.

Ethos more than they do the folks up here so there's really two states so guess what that ends up -- that causes there to be very conveniently.

A swing.

County.

In a swing state.

Right there -- Columbus it's suburban it's growing.

It's got a lot.

Going on it's got Ohio State it has all those things so basically Democrats and Republicans Democrats are gonna try to maximize turnout in the north Republicans are gonna try to -- -- -- out -- out.

And then it's a brawl an absolute brawl for Columbus so.

Let's take a look now for President Obama.

You see what he did he actually -- Cincinnati turning out large African American populations inside the city to overwhelm.

V.

Overwhelm the McCain campaign but as you see Lotta votes here in Cincinnati lot of -- and Hamilton County.

And McCain lost by -- margin then.

Most Republicans would and then -- contrast that with its cousin up here.

This is Cleveland look at the number of votes.

Rock -- gets nearly a million votes.

Up in Cuyahoga County.

He's count on this count -- Internet and look at that margin nothing like what you see down in Cincinnati this is Democrat country big time so.

Let's talk about who's in the middle.

And they are in the middle and this is Franklin county and then you've got some suburban counties Madison County there you go to union -- But the heart here and Delaware County is -- actually Delaware and he's a really big suburban -- -- -- have the Republican collar counties.

Look at the margin for Barack Obama there in Columbus college students.

Sure some minorities not too many for a city of Columbus -- size but what he did very successfully was.

Get suburban -- suburban women.

To turn out and vote for him and he did it all over the country but Columbus turned -- to be perfect kind of city for -- And that's a more typical margin that you'd expect to see here.

Got a lot of votes but John Kerry George W.

Bush that's what you expected you for Republican gets blown out in Columbus if -- if Franklin County to blow out.

Fourth before Mitt Romney.

He's not going to be able to compensate for the big losses he's gonna experience in the top of the state so let's talk about.

The two key counties in the north to key counties in the north are out here to wood counting.

And that's suburban Toledo that's Bowling Green this is -- swing swing swing -- it goes back and forth.

Tends to be a Bellwether.

And that that's just how it works okay so that's over here by Toledo.

Mitt Romney's difficulty there the auto bailout is really popular in Toledo because they have a big -- plant.

They love it and he the president dumped all that money in there and it save the plant they believe and they really like and they don't like that Mitt Romney was poster.

The other one other key in the north is lake camp LA county is suburban.

Cleveland out in -- country five that this is suburban Cleveland.

So let's take a look again.

-- If we look at 2008 here.

5050.

We look here.

5149.

This is the -- what you got a couple 350000.

Votes.

This is truly battleground -- of the north.

Watch Lake County over here.

And watch would -- over there.

Big deal also watch for here in the -- holding river valley.

Watch for Youngstown.

Oh don't watch Wisconsin -- -- -- -- watch Wisconsin -- means but certainly let's look at Ohio.

But when you see this part of the state this is like trumbull county -- Warren Ohio.

We're talking about Youngstown we're talking about Akron can't and this is the real Rust Belt stuff.

There are it is democratic country additionally but it's a place where Republicans have been making some pretty substantial inroads he's in the north for Mitt Romney.

When these suburban -- got to win and and then cut into president Obama's margin here in this part of the state.

In the south things are pretty much simpler what President Obama wants to do.

In the south is do that in Hamilton County again.

And he basically wants to maximize turnout there but they're not gonna play too much in the south.

The key in Columbus.

One more time I want to be so clearly the key in Columbus.

Is these suburbanites.

This is a growing town one of the reasons that -- he's having problems ironically.

Is the economy's pretty good in Columbus.

The people there are pretty happy the unemployment latest rate in the state is lower than the national average and in fact headquarters in companies keep locating in Columbus it's a growing city.

It's an increasingly affluent city.

These folks don't have a chip on their shoulder they don't have rocks in their -- The way that some other folks indicating industrial areas might they got banks insurance companies and all of these high tech kind of companies coming to town.

So they're pretty happy that -- he's got a tougher argument to make with these folks and they hold the key for the election for him.

So what's the secret for Barack Obama seemed so easy.

We're gonna go back to Cuyahoga County.

One.

Nut job accounting.

There is it not not enough folks Cuyahoga County huge trove of votes so gosh darn big.

And a -- substantial African American population President Obama is gonna count on them and I guarantee on the black radio stations.

In all over the community the black community in Cleveland.

Even though they're gonna go for President Obama by 92% they're going to be pushing -- Democrats going to be pushing very hard on turnout.

Good lot of doors are gonna get knocked out here in Cuyahoga County as they look for a late night -- late push into the election.

Here's one thing I can promise you.

This is the candidate will be watching very closely.

On election night because it always seems to come down to Cuyahoga County it's always exciting they are slow in counting it's always fun so will be watching Cuyahoga County.

And you'll know what to watch so that you know who's gonna win Ohio.

And probably the presidency before anybody else -- it's been a great -- through battleground Friday's thanks for being with us for the ride.

And will be back.

Little more power play after this.

Three million jobs that's a million in manufacturing that's a lot of energy related jobs.

Three million jobs come back to this country by taking advantage -- something we have.

Right underneath our feet that's oil and gas and -- we're gonna make it happen we're gonna create those jobs.

That.

Was Republican soon to be Republican nominee Mitt Romney campaigning at a New Mexico.

Talking about his energy policy but as in everything that he does.

In this election bringing it back to jobs and welcome back to power play this power play and it's battleground Friday it's Ohio battleground Friday still were all just sort of -- -- it's just it's so great.

So who would you hat if you -- and it could talk to anybody.

In the world about watching how -- going to vote you could you could think of politician and you can think of all sorts of people the correct answer is Bill Hemmer.

And you know why Bill Hemmer is the correct answer Internet he is from Ohio is a native of the Cincinnati area he like.

Congressman Paul -- as a graduate of Miami University -- I've heard Oxford Ohio somewhere and their homework.

I -- Google works for everybody.

And three Bill Hemmer is also the artist the Michelangelo.

Of the big board.

And every election night every primary night as you get closer the election you'll get to see more of bill who of course you know and love is the anchor America's Newsroom with his -- Cal -- you get to see bill workings work his magic and they've worked so brother hammer I have to ask him I'm afraid to act.

This is is this would be like -- -- just hated his garage.

Asking Picasso to come and review it but how was the big.

I -- our battleground -- I believe.

Someone's been practicing.

Yes definitely a -- with a job well done first -- OK the first balance that it.

Fated trip euphoria that yes -- Paul Ryan and Bill Hemmer were members of the same fraternity.

Five years frat bros you guys are frat -- is not close -- them whatever claimant to be like -- friend your body but let.

A lot of his friends.

From college were my friends also I left before he was a member of the fraternity -- have -- -- -- a Buddhist stories you tell us about Cameron I think we weren't even act cool.

-- -- at -- delta Todd dealt that I think what north -- one -- probably do you -- them -- I think your analysis is spot on Chris it is really really good.

Tell -- a quick story.

2004.

Bush Kerry.

I was precinct -- Along with Stu Rothenberg.

And to a lot of outsiders that might think -- might seem to be a boring job but for geeks like gusts on the inside that we you know we will we -- -- get the data you would get the information the numbers.

We have signed off on Florida.

Earlier in the night because we saw on the -- -- court or that the percentage of the vote a vote for bush in 2004.

Was greater -- he received in 2000 Iranians Al Gore and we checked it off for for a George Bush in Florida.

I was working for CNN at -- and Stu Rothenberg the you're well familiar with -- he and I -- the analyst for this precinct information.

But that we moved to Ohio.

And there is so little data that was coming in throughout the night when all the other states were filling in.

Yeah -- had a little bit from my Cuyahoga County Cleveland and a little bit from Franklin County Columbus, Ohio as you point out there but you know what was absent Chris.

Southwestern Ohio Hamilton where they're Cincinnati.

And that all the counties around it bodily Cincinnati the demographics of -- they've -- real close to 5050 Democrat Republican and you can see that in the congressional race that plays at every -- CD one there.

And Hamilton County.

But north of Pamela -- County Butler home of -- university Oxford Ohio.

1809.

Warren how that is usually in the Claremont Canada there -- Chris there is no data.

That he's coming in from these counties if you can't -- that's I said anyone that goes up Cincinnati 75 north sanity I understood the northeast TI now that goes up today the reason I mention this is because that there was the there was no information coming it.

Now why would that be it's 10 o'clock at night.

So I got on the hole and I start column you know the folks who used to work with -- back home.

WC PO NW RWT there was a big storm that rolled through the area that night.

But the lions at the polling stations were out the door down the sidewalk around the corner.

And they extended all the polling station hours.

Those counties -- Butler Warren union Claremont.

Is what gave George Bush a 1181000.

Vote victory over John Kerry and a second term true or not.

Absolutely true and -- you know the way that you can look at it.

Is that for George W.

Bush he won Ohio with all those millions of votes cast five million votes or whatever cast.

He won the state by about the attendance at an Ohio State University football -- that value right.

You could fit his margin into the -- just about and it even though it pains me to have to say.

The name of Ohio State University.

It's it's the truth.

This time thing.

The I know they want the definite article -- -- -- don't think I Wear this tie for you buckeye battle with them but the but the but the truth is building.

When you get down to it.

Columbus is the swing of this -- right you -- -- -- Republican -- adept Democrat in the works very broadly speaking.

And you have to swing the swing there in Columbus.

How difficult is it for Mitt Romney given the fact that the.

This is the -- part of the state they're actually Columbus is -- they're doing great it is you know it would it would what's interesting to me Chris is.

The Republican governor John -- This guy was under fire for that union referendum.

That did not pass the way down and heavy defeat two years ago.

-- his polling numbers really drop to the floor.

But since that time he is rehab himself he's up in the upper forties I think right now about he what he's given 48% approval running about even with President Obama and -- and you also have and you only talks about every day any tweets about it all the time.

About bringing business into Ohio and he's been successful.

I mean this guy was Lazarus and he has risen from the dead but as a Republican governor.

What -- that due to the politics of his state on a national level.

When you have eighteen electoral votes in this huge.

The this huge huge allotment that will be handed out -- November 6 case take his done well to his advantage.

But perhaps in the end to the disadvantage of -- -- So yeah I -- -- what you're talking about 2004.

I talked about this yesterday -- -- -- was here we talked about.

This on social issues Democrats pushing very hard on social issues right now they think that.

With the -- -- thing the Republicans have a weakness.

Ohio is a very Catholic state.

I haven't been there -- vary Catholics he fingered -- Notre Dame.

Big -- -- Notre Dame and its German Catholics down in Cincinnati area.

A lot of eastern European Catholics -- Italian Catholic Italian American Catholics in the northeastern part of the state.

You got cardinal Dolan going down to the Republican National Convention and I remember in 2004 just did you say it was those counties that delivered the margin for President Bush in 2004.

I remember being places like Youngstown and Akron Canton.

And ends up Mahoney -- rally only now.

Yet those places.

The people in those places couldn't vote for John Kerry because of its stance on abortion do you think in the end this could be that this could -- how does that play.

I'm not sure how it plays out but I can tell you -- and my experience to start counting few months ago.

You know as you point out this is former Rust Belt former manufacturing -- They've been able to draw a little bit of that back but not nearly to the numbers that they use to have for the past 203040.

Years post World War II.

How to make this clear Chris and and in the traveling that we've done and are you know listening to the voters theories which has been great thank you headed up by you the all -- one.

-- is that the amount of trauma.

That millions and millions of Americans have experience is the -- 2008.

Cannot be underestimated.

And people -- change their lives they change their businesses they've certainly changed their finances.

They've had to adjust to a whole new reality.

And I think for the most part they have done that you know they had the Powell really -- -- still swimming.

They kept their head above water so I ask you this I believe and I say I've said this for almost a year now.

That the essential question is not you better off than you were four years ago is -- because the majority people say no they're not it's.

The question is yes it has gotten better but by how much and ultimately is it good enough.

And that's what voters have to.

React to respond to in 74 days.

Internet Bill Hemmer is going to be the one that tells you who wins the 2012 election because usually -- you -- you -- earlier -- and you watch all these battleground Friday.

And when bill talks about star candy when bill talks about what -- when he talks about so -- You'll know exactly what he means and you will be on the same page as Bill -- master of the big board brother ever we thank you for coming guided and give me too much credit Chris but I guess that Canada our senior writer -- -- thank my friend okay Internet let's do a little the little music note for you first let's get our political Twitter -- our Twitter political index for the day.

Bump for Mitt Romney the Twitter feels better about Mitt Romney nine point -- into the lead 28 point three over President Obama.

Perhaps a sign of the enthusiasm gap that we continue to -- for Republicans and Romney -- -- in are certainly in our most recent fox new people a ten point advantage for Republicans.

For Republicans in enthusiasm.

And that may be translated to some online some social media enthusiasm so there's that.

That something you need to know.

And this is important.

We're going to -- you know we're going to tape that we're going to Charlotte but -- -- on on the -- I want you to brace yourself.

We're going to be doing full hours from Tampa.

Monday Tuesday Wednesday Thursday half -- on Friday we're gonna kick off at 1130 like we always do.

But we're -- -- be there for a full hour we have some huge gas and not at liberty to disclose all of them right now but we have some big name guests that are going to be with us you're going to enjoyed a great deal.

You will probably you know maybe we'll get a -- for the -- -- something I have no idea but you'll you'll be tickled.

And -- buy it so I hope you'll join us on Monday when we do that okay we're gonna take a quick break.

But when we come back.

-- gonna talk to at Ohio congressman who asked to represent the very district.

That is the battleground of the battleground of the battleground of Ohio and he's gonna give us the lay of the land from out there so stick around.

But there's one guy over here and -- That is what it looks like when President Obama goes to campaign in Columbus, Ohio and if you live in or around Columbus.

Good gracious you've got to see a lot of the president it seems like every time there's an issue whether -- student loans or energy or education and or anything else.

President -- -- degrees go to Columbus.

And guess what it's not by accident.

This is power play -- welcome back.

And here's the deal is that as we were talking about with big with bill -- as we -- talking about on the big board.

If you have an Ohio.

In Columbus in the metro area around Columbus especially on the west side.

Of Columbus the swinging as part of the state it's gone red -- it goes back and forth -- where the persuade able voters are.

Well guess what we found the guy who represents them he represents these people in congress he knows what they want.

He is a Republican.

He is Steve that's divers -- congressman.

Who represents that did.

Parts of the city of Columbus but also the suburban -- some of the suburban counties outside congressman welcome.

-- it.

Can you hear me congressman.

Not here and we -- that it took.

Good.

Okay one more try congressman can you hear me -- bacteria.

That area is a sorry -- Okay so we were we've been talking today the whole the whole topic of today's Ohio -- as it turns out conveniently -- The whole state in in a lot of ways -- presidential election comes right into your district it's a swing district in this swing part of the swing state.

-- decides it all.

What's what's your your back there for the district work period as it's now.

What what are people talking about what's the -- there.

Well first I think there's a clear choice in this race between.

You more government or more private sector jobs more taxes and more take -- page.

-- -- Or a more balanced budget and that's what I'm here from people like knock on -- we've talked about 45000 orders.

In this race and you know people.

See the stark contrast between the two views of America and I think they're gonna pick governor Romney's view -- And move toward a much more balanced -- focus on jobs and competitiveness.

And make America competitive -- -- I I believe.

From talking to people as I knock on doors.

That governor Romney's going to do just by.

Now your success in 2010 undercut -- narrative that had been going on for that part of metro Columbus that had been trending Democrat had been sort of a lean red.

Part of this day.

That seem to be training Democrat in the previous decade a you to get back the other way.

But what I notice is there a heck of a lot of independent voters out where you represent.

That don't feel particularly affinity to either party that's reflected in our latest Fox News poll what are the independent voters want to -- Well it's all about jobs for independent voters we've got to make sure that we're talking about jobs and frankly each.

Every -- we're talking about jobs is a bad day for President Obama and it's a good day for governor Romney.

-- different -- we're talking about jobs because the other jobs agenda that will move America -- make America competitive and get people back to work.

-- I was actually lucky right now since governor Casey took office.

Ohio's unemployment is actually below the national average but there's still 425000.

Islands that are out of work and seven point 3% unemployment.

You're still unacceptable -- better than.

The eight point three that the nation has why does not make it acceptable and and for independence this election is all about jobs and that's bad news for the president.

With a report from on the ground in the in the crucial district did that make it's -- that probably will get to decide.

Who get sworn into office on January 20 -- we thank you so much for making time for us.

Are you -- it.

Okay Internet.

Here's some stuff that you ought to know about first of all MarketWatch -- -- the -- in effect cardinal Dolan speech will affect the race did probably well and especially in places like Youngstown.

Especially in places like Warren Ohio.

Spots like that DSL seniors as it sounds like some folks think Ohio is the smartest state in the union.

No no that's West Virginia you know that but.

The truth is that Ohio just gets to pick just because they're big and they're evenly divided Ohio and Florida get too big for everybody else so.

There there there you have that.

But let me tell you about something fun.

And you're going to enjoy this I think -- will I would like to meet you.

Public to meet you in person Internet I would like to see your smiling face beaming back at me you have a chance to do that.

Because with Google power play and the Fox News Channel next week from the convention in Tampa on Wednesday August 20 ninth at 4 o'clock -- -- -- -- What they call the kids call it Google hang out.

And I will be there will be with Steve it.

I will be with Juan Williams so what you have to do is go.

And -- go to Google+ get your Google+ to watch that but here's what I'd like you to do you.

If you want to be a guest on power play in the Google hang out next week.

Send me a direct message at cease -- -- on the Twitter go to Etsy -- -- you could just tweeted out loud if you don't care for other people know it doesn't matter.

But go there.

And do that and let me know that you want to participate will catch your names under Google.

And then they'll get in touch with you.

And see if you couldn't be one of the ones who's gonna join me in Steve -- want from the convention 4 PM next Wednesday you'll enjoy it a great deal and I frankly would love to meet you.

So please do that so we can hang out and it will be a great job.

So there's that.

There's on the hunt with Jonathan Hunt up next and now as we like to do every day we -- leave you with the work from our French are.

Yes well of the media have always had -- liberal slant is since you know the earth cooled.

But what's happened instead it will Obama got completely had a hand in 2008.

The in the media was so much in the tank for Obama that they needed -- Oracle's.

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