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What to expect at the conventions

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  • Description

    Shane D'Aprile and Erin McPike give their predictions of the major highlights at the RNC and DNC

  • Duration 7:18
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Going to fox all I'm your host James Rosen welcome to Washington this is episode seven of this program meaning that if the -- -- cat.

We be reaching maturity.

You can follow me on Twitter at James Rosen FNC and just beneath me on your screen you can join our live chat.

And send in your questions only have to do was login using your Twitter or FaceBook account.

Visiting the fox hole today are Shane deeper the April of campaigns and elections magazine and Erin -- -- of real clear politics dot com.

Welcome to you both to the fossil thanks for coming.

Let's start with -- both -- be your broad view of where the races that right now as we head into this RNC convention -- Yeah I think it's fascinating when you look it's so much having happened in the past couple of months the millions spent on television -- by both campaigns in the outside groups.

Yet polling -- this race has been relatively stagnant not talked to.

-- Republican pollster the other day he said I'm just absolutely amazed that both of these candidates are still under 50%.

There hasn't been a tremendous movement one way or the other.

I think the conventions is sort of that added that kick off to the point -- where at which voters start tuning in.

Are going to be really potentially -- a critical here and and maybe move numbers one way or the other after these next two weeks -- changes suggested that now people are beginning to tune in in the RNC convention is Mitt Romney's big chance perhaps to define himself.

But art is there anyone left in America who really hasn't made up their mind.

I think that 10% of the electorate who will be voting in an independent voters still have yet to learn enough about Mitt Romney and so the Romney campaign.

Intends to make a big splash in terms of introducing Mitt Romney using -- -- to help humanize and they say.

They're getting use a little bit of his faith to teach more about what Mitt Romney's personal life has been like so I I think it's true that.

There are play -- of voters -- still have a lot left to learn about net or.

Let's take a look at some of the recent polls including the most recent Fox News poll.

Which was conducted Sunday through Tuesday and released last night among likely voters with a margin of error of plus or minus three percentage points.

The Romney Ryan ticket in -- head to head matchup with the Obama Biden ticket.

Was ahead by Justin knows one percentage point.

Let's go to the all important voting bloc that Aaron pike just mentioned independents who are often fought to decide elections and are polarized political culture.

Governor Romney leads the incumbent president by a full ten points.

And yet in the latest survey in three swing states Florida Ohio and Wisconsin.

Conducted by Quinnipiac University the New York Times and CBS news.

The head to head match up -- President Obama maintaining slight.

Or in the case of Ohio a sizable lead.

Over the presumptive GOP nominee in all three of those states so Aaron doesn't just get to change point -- for all the massive amount of money -- sort of been spent.

Particularly by the Obama Biden side of things and their super supportive super pacs.

That this is a very close race still.

It is a very close race but I think what is key is that an all of these swing state polls.

President Obama has held a consistent lead over Mitt -- in just about every single state.

With the exception of North Carolina in the real clear politics polling averages of each of those states.

He's -- in Ohio for quite some time and number of those polls and his lead is growing in certain states like Pennsylvania where its closest is in Florida.

But Mitt Romney does captain of the dial in all of -- swing states if he has -- chance of unseating the president.

-- the good mood of the country right track wrong track unemployment rates consumer confidence.

Should be rather alarming for the incumbent and yet is Erin just noted the president's -- and all these swing states explain that to us it's hard to explain in some ways because you look at.

With the amount of money that has been threatened the anti Obama money that's been thrown out there it's.

You know Mitt Romney is a big campaign of Mitt Romney sort of held -- -- in some ways because crossroads GPS and a lot of the other a conservative outside groups.

Have been taking up the mantle and and and spending week in week out you know 910 million dollars a week restore our future is up this week spending about ten million dollars you look at the differential of the money that's been thrown out there by.

Conservative -- outside groups the anti Obama money and to see the numbers that the president is still able to maintain frankly it's impressive I think the question is one of tone as we move forward because.

Is some of these swing states have seen such an enormity events in some key media markets.

It's unlike anything we've ever seen I mean we did -- talked -- -- unison.

Sales folks it's a you know that is stations in in markets in Ohio and in North Carolina and they say they've never seen volume like this.

And -- it's the end of August so the question is how long is this gonna go on and how long.

Our voters actually gonna tolerate this you always hear about what we don't like the negativity.

They haven't seen anything yet in terms of negativity in volume so where does the tone down.

They must like the negativity because they continue to watch those real housewife shows and those are just.

Chock full of negativity.

There in that we are women voters are concerned.

You know we're gonna have this RNC platform.

That does not include exceptions for the opposition to abortion for the cases of rape and incest even though that is governor Romney's position.

I've had one Romney advisor tell me that where he really -- sleep is over women and Hispanics.

How do you see governor Romney in this a crucial three day four days setting coming up in Tampa addressing the women vote.

The first thing is the Romney campaign is probably going to move and Romney's speech from Monday night to Tuesday night because a lot of the networks have decided.

They're not going to be showing.

The Republican Convention in prime time but they desperately want voters to see -- Romney because here is.

The woman that they have who can sort of humanize Mitt Romney and tell the softer side of ten and that is a big -- -- how they're going to -- And try to appeal to women.

Also Condoleezza Rice is introducing Paul Ryan on Wednesday night and I had a lot of Republicans tell me.

That is the key to trying to appeal to women because she has had such a big role in American politics and -- -- -- -- given the policies here very quickly.

It might not because of course the Obama campaign has been running wild with this idea that the Romney campaign is wrong for women and they are.

Using a lot of bear the women who are in the Democratic Party to take a tour of the swing states and say.

Our policies are better for women at the very same time that the Republicans will be in Tampa.

William Fisher chief chats with us now.

And says -- Paul Ryan will eclipse Romney at the convention and that's the ticket would have been much stronger in reverse your thoughts about the -- affect change.

Yeah I think it's going to be really interesting to see how congressman Ryan performs -- mean.

The initial rollout.

It was an impressive one that'd be the initial speech when he was first day.

I think today to be able today to draw -- crowds of you know 50101000.

Plus has been a big boost for that ticket so I think it's going to be a he's gonna be undoubtedly very well received by conservatives in Tampa there's no doubt.

There in fifteen seconds on Paul right well it's another reason why Mitt Romney the next day have to give this speech of his life -- -- -- it a very important golf event for the convention all right Jane.

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