Changing landscape of 2012 battleground states
Rove, Trippi assess the electoral scoreboard
- Duration 7:02
- Date Aug 27, 2012
Rove, Trippi assess the electoral scoreboard
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We're going to talk for a few minutes about the magic number this November 270.
As in 270 electoral votes to win the presidency.
Let's get some insight on it from former bush senior advisor Karl Rove.
And democratic strategist Joseph Trippi.
Let's look at the map right now to start out the latest map lay it out for you can see the info on the key red is Romney those around Romney states blue Obama.
Then -- issues lean Romney light blue lean Obama and then yellow are the toss -- states within the margin of -- this of course is all based.
On polls over the last thirty days okay Carla start from the last time we were together what has -- She to changes in status the most -- -- which is Wisconsin moves from.
Lean Obama to what Joseph and I suggested it would be after runs appointment as -- vice president running mate.
And that's -- some ten -- ten Electoral College votes.
Out of the Obama column in the tossup and -- five Electoral College votes in -- Mexico moved from lean Obama to Obama lose 11 recent Poland's state.
American -- testing by the way behind this Sicilian now no electoral vote no I drove -- Joseph most important of the changes welcome.
Clearly Wisconsin moving in to toss up -- the Carl I agreed on that that that was gonna happen likely happen did that's important but the most important may be the polls that are coming out of Ohio that show that it was a toss up but it's getting much tighter which.
Is really significant because Obama had been.
Widening up things there.
And Romney really needs of Ohio and now looks like it's a possibility that I changed war.
I think a lot of the tactics on both sides on all sides if -- if Ohio really isn't playing I think it may well be.
Let's review to the first time we did this Carl we talk about the 321.
Strategy for Republicans let's review wouldn't stand.
Kind of tell people where we are on that.
Well the three are -- three historically Republican states -- whom.
Which were taken by Obama 2008 Indiana totally out of the play solid red for Romney eleven electoral votes.
The other two states North Carolina leaning towards Romney.
But still a toss up.
Obama leading today in Virginia but both of them toss up states basically up one and down two respectively.
Those are going to be battles and right to the end we may differ as to where they're gonna end up I think there.
Tilting towards moving towards feeling better about Romney.
But those are the three -- their two tossup states that have been historically toss -- swing back and forth Florida and Ohio.
And then there's been a general sense is better territory for Republicans Ohio has been seen as a as a -- for territory and new Columbus dispatch poll showing it.
Dead even and a slight Romney -- fifteen out of the 15160.
Some survey recipients fifteen more.
But we also have this CBS New York Times quinnipiac poll a couple of weeks ago which showed a six point lead.
For Obama will turns out that poll is 8% more Democrats and Republicans in a state that for example in 2000.
Ten was one point more.
Republican and and and the Columbus Dispatch poll was literally dead even Republicans and Democrats so that's at three in the two and one the one has any other state if if Romney wins those three -- -- -- -- that he needs either.
New Hampshire or Pennsylvania or Michigan or Wisconsin or Iowa or Colorado or New Mexico or Nevada and he was -- so the question Joseph is if he doesn't win Ohio.
Is there a path that is feasible for Mitt Romney to win.
Very very tough it's doable but it's very tough because -- you today we've got to -- -- -- 247.
Electoral votes you put in Ohio it's to 65 at which point.
Iowa alone 66 electoral votes makes a -- 71 -- of Ohio goes literally.
-- has to take the entire map from there on I mean he he could.
There may be one state one -- two states that could go to.
Obama needs to make it but no actually there is -- -- -- -- -- the table well until look I have a slightly different view of first -- I think we're gonna find the New Hampshire -- surprising but yeah New Hampshire and Nevada are -- are are moving into.
And to toss up status had been within two weeks we have we're looking at this map would not seven toss -- states.
That eight or nine.
Though we may have once they move out of contention I believe north Carolina's move out of contention but but there's a way to get there for example you don't -- -- Win Colorado and Wisconsin -- win Colorado Wisconsin and New Hampshire it gets tougher it's like let's cover -- but -- but look here's the deal.
That we present on Clinton we're looking at this from president from got a governor Romney's position.
Look at it from president Obama's position he's playing defense everywhere.
We're we we -- RD one state that he won last time gone we everybody agrees on it and seven states all of which he won.
USA today Gallup poll this week.
They sell -- to look at this present Obama's -- in in the swing states 4744.
However they failed put context and it pres Obama won those states by 5545.
He is suffering in the battleground states he needs to win and -- it -- I think.
I don't disagree that there's ways to get there but if Ohio goes -- me first vote.
Obama's ahead in Virginia tune is is it it it it's closer but he's been holding now -- -- that those two states are critical of me it's part of that it's critical of the 321.
And I think Obama's got it you -- because it has shown some real advantages there's so look this is going to be.
Be tough even if Nevada and some of these other states do you can't do come into play the one thing I would like to do is you -- -- Texas.
I really I got and a great state side.
I don't want America isn't -- -- -- -- had some pool and we you -- support pulled out there is that we can put it in this solid -- I'll pay taxes LL look here's the deal here's -- deal he's right -- failed to get the pole run out they're gonna run a poll.
But the reason I've been told -- -- is being run is because it considered Texas so solidly Republican.
But there's no they're there are worse not better in the money now aside hundreds of let's make it solid -- ran out right -- those very 38 votes into the solid Romney camp and recalculate.
I wanna make one to a quick to point where they go the candidates go is interest here Romney Ryan in Michigan.
Now we've seen Michigan it's his home -- you know -- grew up in his father was governor there.
But you know I've heard political -- -- say that's fool's gold sometimes for Republicans to going to Michigan and Pennsylvania.
But you know what here's the deal Michigan has been moving closer the more recent -- you look at the more recent polls -- -- and -- -- 6% number we got here.
And yeah look it's it's worth making a play for its tenth sixteen Electoral College votes and have been recent poll showing the race either leaning -- from here heads up the look here's the deal.
Battleground states were likely see more of a rather than fewer of them and that's good news for Iran into that worried about Ohio you start to look for other places and -- -- got to look at Michigan's home and wound up placing her on -- got a -- if you wanna win election you keep this map as broad as you possibly can as long as you can't.
With as many states spread Obama and making fighting all -- -- -- -- -- last word and always that's that gentlemen thank you very much reported accelerated.
Once a week how about that okay all right thank you guys and don't forget the iPad app.
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