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And good morning to you on Jon Scott hi everybody -- generally and happening now the Republican National Convention.
Getting back on track today after tropical storm I that disrupted the schedule at least in Florida still an issue though that the Republicans are gonna have the deal west.
In the meantime here's what's on tap -- for today I delegates will formally vote to nominate governor Mitt Romney from president.
Then a primetime speech by and Ronnie.
-- keynote address by New Jersey governor Chris Christie and we've already heard John.
My questions about what we're gonna hear from Chris Christie -- -- some jokes at the left -- it's going to be something.
I know it's got to be entertaining -- speech to watch that's for sure we also have brand new numbers on the race for the White House.
According to Gallup governor Romney now edges President Obama 47 to 46% among registered voters.
Gallup says in twelve of fifteen elections between 1952.
The candidate leading in the Gallup poll before the first convention has gone on to win the presidency.
Let's talk about all that with Karl Rove he is former senior advisor and deputy chief staff to president George W.
Bush and a Fox News contributor.
So Gallup says that looks good for Mitt Romney but it also puts out the -- -- That none of those other races was as close as this one us.
Well four out of five races that were relatively close.
One or two points today we're also won by the candidate who -- in this poll.
But yes it points to a close election it's interesting what's what -- what was a three that didn't and in two of the three what happened was in 1988.
And in 1992.
Under one of the candidates had -- extraordinarily good convention.
Michael Dukakis led George H.
In the last poll we for the conventions and bush had in arguably one of the best conventions including extraordinary speech which he talked about his background and his life -- a to a young man naval aviator is a life in and in the -- oil patch and so forth the other one was 1992 where it is point George H.
Bush lay dead.
Bill Clinton but Bill Clinton had an extraordinary video called the man from hope.
And and -- had an incredible speech which you vaunted into the -- so but we don't that this is a good indicator for Romney but let's watching carefully and see.
Who has a better convention over the next two -- yelled that's what I was going to say what you seem to be pointing to is the importance of these conventions a lot of people say they are anachronisms and now but they are very important for these candidates.
Who want to introduce themselves to the American people.
Yeah they are an anachronism they used to matter this is where literally.
Until -- until as late as 1976.
Republicans came into their convention not necessarily knowing who the nominee was going to be.
1940 the convention took six ballots 1944 and 48 that was contested 1952 big battles on the -- that.
Convention to -- various delegations.
-- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- But now they are production there a moment where.
Everybody knows -- it's an -- is -- an anachronism everybody knows big decisions have been made in the primaries and the caucuses not on the floor of the convention.
But nonetheless they want to see how the candidates perform if you will and his production called the Republican Convention or the Democratic Convention next week.
Speaking of productions -- -- live they're rehearsing amazing grace they're behind you sound like the Oak Ridge Boys but thanks it is the other toys thank -- -- good for good for taken them out yeah thank you ridiculous -- you know that Gallup poll is interesting but there isn't news CBS poll.
Among registered voters that shows exactly the opposite they have President Obama leading.
46 to 45.
Now again it's within the margin of error but.
These these these polls -- -- -- all over the place internally.
You -- it absolutely ABC -- post has Romney in the lead again by one point I'd I'd say this.
I'd look at dead at the whole tone of this in the last couple weeks there's evidence that this has been.
A good couple weeks for Mitt Romney the after the selection of Paul Ryan that he's improved in the polls and if I had to choose between these -- -- ABC -- -- CBS.
And the Gallup poll I'd pick the Gallup and the -- I wouldn't pick -- the last with CBS CBS.
And the New York Times which often pull together tend to be among the most Democrats sample of all.
Of the polls but the Gallup has a big sample 3500 or thereabouts and its sample.
Pretty durable and uproot and tested and with -- and I think the indications are the -- right now Mitt Romney has a modest lead.
Going into the convention it's also interesting that these are registered voters not necessarily likely voters and me and indications are.
That the enthusiasm.
Is higher among Republicans this time -- to -- not did not the indications all the data points to lots more enthusiasm among.
Republicans conservatives and people are not voting for Barack Obama then among people who are Liberal Democrats in voting for Barack Obama so that's that your right.
Delegates a little premature to -- count on all these polls started to move to a likely voter screen as we call it because -- the closer you get to the election the war.
Accurate those slot likely voter screens are.
And a lot of pollsters wait until after Labor Day before they begin to make the move.
And when they do typically what happens is is that the typically the Republican not always but typically the Republican moves up in the polls certainly the candidate with greater enthusiasm.
-- his candidacy tends to move up in the polls that's why after Labor Day if things remain as they are today I'd expect to see Mitt Romney.
Wide -- that lead that he has in the Gallup poll from one point to two or three or maybe even four.
I have to ask you one quick question about this tropical storm potential hurricane that's likely -- at the New Orleans area.
The president can go on television and be the you know console -- in chief for the -- the you know the rally area in chief he can do a lot of saying this.
That Mitt Romney won't be able to do is that potentially going to hurt Romney's candidacy.
You know we'll -- -- all plays out I don't think it's necessarily good picture for the president to announce that he signed in emergency declaration for.
The for New Orleans and for Louisiana and then fly off to Iowa to give -- political speech so.
I'm not certain how you know the president if you want to do.
Sort of maximize the impact to this would it would it seem to me spend more time being president less time -- a campaign or during these moments and watch carefully what's happening in the gulf.
Karl Rove a Fox News contributor Carl thank you.
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