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We're going to talk for a few minutes about the magic number this November 270.
As in 270 electoral votes to win the presidency.
Let's get some insights now as we always do from former bush senior advisor Karl Rove.
And democratic strategist Joseph Trippi first let's look at the map.
The latest map as you lay it out you can see the info on the key there red states Romney Blue States Obama.
Then -- issues lean -- light blue lean Obama and the yellow states those are tossup states within the margin of error this is all based.
On polls within the last.
Thirty days OK gentlemen.
Carl what's changed well we have a minor change to Barack Obama's advantage Connecticut was seven electoral votes goes from lean Obama to solid Obama but the good news -- there.
Two states Nevada with six in Michigan with sixteen shift from lean Obama to toss up.
We now have nine states with a 122 electoral votes that are now toss -- this is the largest number of tossup states.
We've had since -- began tracking in April largest number of Electoral College votes as well.
Of those changes what's most important job.
-- -- -- -- Mean suddenly there's a lot of different ways -- For Mitt Romney to make it we've been talking for weeks about the 321 strategy but now you can lose a state like Virginia one of us to three.
Who thought Indiana North Carolina and Virginia that he asked the -- we thought he had to win that.
To have a shot you can you can lose one of those states now.
There because so many states have gone and a toss up.
Nevada Michigan Wisconsin those three states you win them and you can start to lose some of the 321 states which is.
Something the Obama campaign could not have possibly been thinking about this late in the game.
Carl as we point out this is over thirty days you guys moved Texas in that.
Dark red because you just said it is but Georgia.
Is the same light rail Tennessee -- -- yet we've got 35 Electoral College states called lead Romney and Georgia.
Tennessee and can take either call that because the last poll we have -- some time ago.
But I I personally think those 35 Electoral College votes are actually -- Romney's column if you do that.
Think about that for minute.
The solid Obama states fourteen of them represent a 184 Electoral College votes if you -- Kentucky Tennessee and Georgia.
To the to the nineteen states that Romney now has with a 146 Electoral College -- you add those three states with 35 and it is a 184.
To -- 181.
And solid states for each candidate in the rest of it is up for grabs.
Joseph talk about a convention balance you know we don't really see one massive yet it's a little tough it's a holiday weekend and you've got the Democratic Convention this week.
For the Republicans what are they looking for what you do usually the party that's out of power in the presidency gets the non incumbent party gets about a five point.
Well that's the average I'd expect something like death -- the problem is we're not going to be able to see it.
I don't think not completely because that he said that we're here at the Democratic Convention that's the start of the pendulum swinging the other way and you know -- I think.
Later on what we'll have to see how big the gap is -- I think that.
The -- itself might be man might be masked by how close these conventions are you know I think this in in the modern -- only the second time we've had the conventions back to back and I agree with Joseph.
We're likely to see the effect of the -- sort of mitigated by that we ought to take a look at the Gallup poll and others a couple of weeks before the Republican dimension and take a look at him a couple weeks at the Democratic Convention we'll see how they.
-- -- respective party vowed to settle out here in North Carolina -- it's tied on this map.
Recent polls are really tight here.
Shouldn't Romney be -- in north well rob is actually if you take a look at the recent polls for example new poll out today from Elon university and Charlotte Observer -- -- -- -- four.
This this number again this is the strength of the weakness of -- -- these -- together.
We will drop off this week the earliest hole.
In the last month which is also incidentally the best poll for President Obama this state is gonna in the next couple weeks trend -- and I would be surprised to see in a couple weeks.
North Carolina BA leading Romney state.
On the basic dropping out these older polls show we talked -- -- about the iPad app that people can download and they are.
Down running it making their own maps comparing the maps that you and Carl has done.
You have one from that you picked out from a guy who put together his choices.
Yeah Ryan Collins put this up use the gap and put it up and I have what I found -- to -- about the reason I wanted to to -- -- Is he did show us why it's so important that Nevada and Michigan -- -- the toss up this this week.
He he has Barack Obama winning Virginia which is something I think.
Do -- is likely to happen or or could very well happen and then the question was with a 321 strategy.
Virginia being one of the must wins how how do you win without it.
And now -- Nevada he has Nevada go on for for Romney.
And Wisconsin so he had Wisconsin in the data together.
And it makes up for Virginia and Romney.
Gets to to to 75.
So but but keep these coming -- I think there's -- Very interesting ones -- other words you have different equations that can get right there right for example of New York Times had a story this weekend if Romney were to lose Ohio.
If you look at the battleground states are eleven other ways by which he can replace those.
Eighteen Electoral College votes hear -- in this map from -- we have Virginia with thirteen Electoral College votes going to Obama.
And he replaces about combination of Nevada.
And Wisconsin you can also get a by Wisconsin and New Hampshire for example or by Michigan in -- in and of itself.
-- -- without the other what does the president have the same option about stringing states together.
88 you know the guy who's on offense always has a better shot to string together a different set of states that guy on the defense is playing.
Defense you -- you know Obama could still the one thing is consistent if he could stop Romney in Ohio and Virginia.
Very tight it's still possible -- -- get -- but very very different.
Hope to do on this map Missouri is -- Romney Carl I have to ask you about this comment that was.
From a private.
Get together a fund -- I guess a meeting in which you said about the senate candidate there quote we should sink Todd -- if he's found mysteriously murdered.
Don't look for my whereabouts.
The about it not exactly the quote but close -- -- -- that they -- it -- right right that is the this was a comment made in an intemperate remark.
Made in a private conversation when -- became public that.
I started dialing up the numbers ahead for -- and congressman -- called and apologized for the intemperate remark he could have been more gracious.
And kind in his in as soon -- my apology and I wish I had said in a private but when it came public at the right thing to do -- column and I did you regret it.
Yeah look at -- don't do it again exasperated comment private -- level I wished I had said it but I didn't.
When became public the best thing to do his column apologize and I did I've never made an intemperate remark.
We'll we'll get there are children maybe their dirty clothes on the floor no I don't think it's that'll leave it there gentlemen as always thank you will see you next week.
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