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Battle for Swing States: Virginia

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    Is VA the key to winning 2012 race?

  • Duration 4:09
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Election headquarters today taking a closer look at the key battleground states that could make or break.

This White House race this time around today we're looking at Virginia.

Folks in Virginia have been reliably rumpled Republican for a long long time.

Except the last time around when they voted for President Obama in 2000 date.

If you take a look at the stats Virginia a key prize this time around.

Electoral votes thirteen of them in Virginia.

The economy looking pretty good there right now that's part of the reason that.

Both campaigns want to claim this state.

Five point 9% unemployment in Virginia.

Much better than the national average in terms of the history President Obama has been there seven times.

This campaign season Mitt Romney has been there five times.

If you look at the polls the real clear politics average.

-- pretty close to a tie President Obama with 47 point 3% of the vote Mitt Romney with 46 point seven.

Percent of the vote.

Kyle Condit is a political analyst at the University of Virginia center for politics.

Obviously obviously if the state there where you live Kyle what is Virginia leaning too.

-- this time it.

You know John I think it's a basically a total ties this time what thing -- interest thing is that Virginia in 2008.

Obama got 52 point 9% and actually got 52 point six in Virginia.

That was the state closest to the national average.

And so you figure Obama will probably do a little bit worse this time even if he wins.

And so if he goes down nationally figure go down in Virginia too and so.

That's why could be the the key -- the key state in this election one of the quandary for Republicans is that in some of these states that have Republican governors like Ohio like Virginia.

They have managed to do some things that has helped the unemployment situation -- seems to.

And that -- is a net benefit perhaps to the Obama campaign so there in Virginia you've got governor Bob McDonnell.

Who has instituted some some things that that could help make the president look good right.

Yeah I mean we've seen this in a lot of states you know Ohio was another one we have a Republican governor -- you know kind of try to take credit for.

Lower unemployment and more economic growth but at the same time it sort of makes the president look good to.

Although there's not really a lot of good evidence that state level unemployment figures actually matter to voters in a given state -- presidential election.

Of voters tend to base their decisions on what the national climate is and so doesn't seem like the president has gotten a real electoral polling booths.

From the low unemployment in Virginia just yesterday as I understand it a former congressman from Virginia was added to the State's ballot as a presidential candidate a third party presidential candidate his name is Virgil -- and there are fears that he could hurt Mitt Romney can you tell us why.

Well so Virgil Goode was a conservative Democrat turned independent turned Republican who served in the US house.

And there's been some up polling that is shown that he might get as much as 9% of the vote and he's pretty conservative and so.

That would come out of Romney's column I don't think that he actually would get 9% of the vote it's probably more like you know one percentage point or something like that.

But that would probably disproportionately come out of Romney's column and so do you think back to say Florida in 2000 when Ralph Nader hurt Al Gore so much just by getting a few percentage points.

You know in a really close race Virgil -- might affect the outcome in Virginia.

So President Obama won it last time around.

Right now still on the fence too early to say.

Which way Virginia's gonna go.

Yeah I think it is too early to tell and I think you know that you read the poll average it's.

You know within within -- margin of error so.

And you were seen both candidates spent a lot of time in Virginia and I suspect they'll be spending a lot more time there on the last sixty days here.

Kyle Condit -- -- with the University of Virginia center for politics Kyle thanks for joining us today.

Hey thank you John -- got --

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