Race for the White House boils down to one question
Are you better off than you were four years ago?
- Duration 8:35
- Date Sep 8, 2012
Are you better off than you were four years ago?
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Blew -- the live event.
Daddy dropping because job growth is still stalling and -- that -- soaring.
President Obama and governor Romney both saying they can -- that but those animal actually do it.
Hi everyone I'm Brenda -- that says Bulls and Bears yeah.
Tremendously Gary -- Smith Tobin Smith Jonas Max Ferris.
Along with Larry Glazer and Susan -- -- everybody so Larry unemployment still about 8%.
What is it -- it take to get the job -- -- roaring back.
Sure well the president.
It's jobs plan it's just not cutting -- And you know we know we dig beneath the surface the situation is much worse than a headline data you can suggest we know that the underemployment rate of -- More comprehensive.
Level is closed up 50% in this country we know that.
The labor participation rate a reflection of whether people actually even looking for jobs is at its lowest level since the early 1980s.
And we know that goes there.
Workforce situations not much better because their wages are barely keeping pace of inflation started -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- It is still didn't feel like I'll get -- working in the new economy have to look at it make it better.
Okay and are we better off that's really the question Susan.
As well this is the thirtieth month of job growth there are some positives here.
Without question we are better off it the people who think that we aren't have forgotten -- the world looked like in a follow -- 2008 early 2000 not we were losing 800000 jobs a month.
GDP with contracting at 5%.
I -- we -- on the precipice of financial Armageddon.
To to think that we are not better off that we we were then -- some ridiculously revisionist history and it's not to say that the growth hasn't been as strong as they want to be and yet to be.
But we're in a much better place than we -- that a pick Gary do you read something different from the -- -- Ryan and it exactly and I just read the numbers it's easy for.
You know the left to say -- -- -- ship Obama hadn't stepped in me you know the world would have ended up in ashes but.
We don't know what would happen if the government didn't huge car in the stimulus plan all we have is the -- are the numbers and when Obama.
Took office as Larry mentioned the real unemployment rates and factoring in.
People that stop looking for jobs was 11%.
Now it's 16%.
So the real unemployment rate has gone up 30%.
-- you can.
Make up stories tell tales whatever but those are the number so for anyone to say I'll take the opposite side -- -- -- says.
That we're better off has me scratching my head.
Well but let's talk about some numbers -- such as the stock and the bonds numbers they're clearly saying things -- not that -- I mean I -- senator good candidate.
Maybe only 10% -- Leo starts of the other 90% aren't doing better.
But let's that I -- sort of this you know let's beat the heck out at a number let's go back to some real numbers.
Gary's right that the real number that counts is the unemployment rate in the under a blur because that's that's the good that's the optimism gold is that the people are certain to lose optimism and -- And the idea that that this number we got on Friday which -- 95000.
Jobs clearly says that maybe -- -- as the greatest of all time but now.
Right now we have slowed down for the last three quarters we are -- and decelerating.
And the idea that we're gonna do the same stuff the last three years to accelerate -- let's just -- ought to happen.
Well -- out there in Las Vegas you can bet on this one -- actually looking at weekly us weekly jobless claims you see some.
Trend to the positive there.
It's marginally improving it needs to do you know why are you like -- our employees -- you know laughing like it would be unemployed don't do that matter in the world.
You know -- stockholders mattered -- that they're doing a lot better than four years ago if you own a business.
Publicly traded not in all likelihood you're doing a lot better than you were four years ago corporate profits are higher than -- -- -- -- -- by a wide margin.
-- the unemployed are worse off than they were four years ago.
Much of the labor force is worse off than they were four years ago but that's not everybody of concern -- what we're gonna focus on it here but there are parts of the economy that are significantly better notably.
People that own businesses and that's an important part of the economy to people too so.
-- right now the labor market's weak and it's very slow and usually improving for the stock market's doing well one of the things are doing well.
But about Larry small business says are not hiring they may have asked big businesses did too but they're not using that money to invest and to hire.
That's right that's right and you know I beg to differ with Jonas is the fact that he could be worse is not a great investment strategy it is not a great.
And I think we don't -- yeah oh yeah.
Hire people -- -- your own business was up could put the cash to be humility that's warned you go and it does not -- hire people -- -- -- -- you wanna make a lot of money but it.
Eudora -- profits are high ground and not necessarily.
In -- having a sluggish labor force -- wages don't grow can actually help grow profits that's your goal.
So I guess so those jobs we created in the nineties that was bad right and that was it I had a -- I don't follow that.
They think that break.
How did go to Brett definitely have -- -- -- give them the the president.
-- have been affected at boosting the stock market stimulus from the Federal Reserve has been the stock market -- spent very little about the majority of Americans yeah that's a -- but I think yeah.
-- and here I had Gary.
Well -- we talk about the stimulus and and you know Susan made the point that you know my gosh of Obama hadn't stepped in things would have been worse well.
In theory Obama knew what he was stepping into and yet at the time when he was elected and when they passed stimulus he set at this point in time.
Right now here in in late 2012 the unemployment rate.
With all the stimulus that was passed will be about five and a half percent we now know.
As we spoke earlier it's -- 8% so.
Even given all that mess that -- -- what's happening and he said the unemployment rate would be much older and it's and it's a lot higher Gary come -- you know you're Smart on the numbers you know that nobody predicted how bad that Craig is really what that the time.
McConnell that that's the next -- and how it is bad they didn't know how bad you -- got it on both sides got -- so how long -- -- get -- can make.
In that argument that Michael got him but look at where this is this is dog -- Tuesday September.
-- 2012 to in the here and now.
We all are -- numbers are you can't fight with we are decelerating the question -- is they're -- our -- we have a new plans to celebrate.
-- of -- point is.
Your old plan is run out of gas and bullets a new plant.
Do they hope might get a sound like a -- song yeah okay but -- -- more time are we.
I don't know if we're decelerating and looks like a lot of ADP jobs figures that more people are being hired it's not -- I just seven months ago we are actually worse off I believe is an economy -- we are today so.
Thrown his illustrious and wondering about since my 100000 -- doesn't know.
Yeah yeah -- During contract.
Shut down that there is about that there were seeing it now you can't get picking -- the numbers in these tiny specific little ways.
The overall trend is thirty months of job growth we haven't had any job a lot.
-- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- No -- went down on Friday that's because at 230000 people dropped out of the class job but does it more than.
And that let's return to the decelerated.
And Israel is Warsaw and even a year ago what what industry in America plus employees and a year ago I don't what's decelerating Reynolds -- -- is -- what is decelerate.
His GDP growth was decelerating his job creation was decelerating.
Is because every measure that the economy has started it -- -- down from the last regular night months those -- the facts.
And at the acceleration isn't stuff that that you don't really is not -- leading to longer grow I don't know are you starting to track.
-- kinds isn't it it's not there and you mentioned that did admit if there.
-- -- structured this economy if you look at all the economic gave it back to decelerate despite all the talk -- the GM bailout.
In Beige Book durable goods all -- it was -- it actually is slowly in this country and -- But I think they -- huge increase that nobody thought we would ever get back to again everybody that manufacturing is getting yanked state and it came back.
So you think it's gonna come back even though the trend is gone down -- -- Absolutely okay all right that.