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Obama up after conventions: How durable is his bounce? Bubba stays on the trail for Obama and the President rebounds in fundraising race
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And it is got can't be sure you proprietor of Big Apple pizza and -- stuff in Fort Pierce Florida.
Literally.
Lifting the President Obama on the book the ground -- in a moment that neither the Secret Service the president.
Could be very happy about and this is power play and I am -- -- -- an Internet welcome back to studio three here in DC after our two week Odyssey.
Through Tampa and Charlotte it's climate controlled and here it's very comfortable all my friends are here and I'm back with a little power plays so I am just tickled pink.
And the Democrats say that they hate our table think that the president.
Has -- -- post convention bounce may say that projector in the race is set that active for five -- it looks like the president got coming out.
Of the Charlotte convention will be what takes them to what they've always -- would be a narrow victory.
What is the actual state of the race is the lift for the president like mr.
-- users left that -- is -- temporary boost.
Or is this and abiding new state of the race we will talk about that today we will talk about.
Bill Clinton.
You know Bill Clinton used to be the governor are -- -- be pretty general are not married to the secretary of state and was a two term president in states.
Back out on the trail President Obama.
Taking his convention performance.
Down to Florida to talk to senior citizens you know who senior citizens like.
They like Bill Clinton he's one of them they voted -- twice if he can go down and charm that something's off.
Folks down in Florida.
So we'll talk about that and we'll talk about increasing development and the fundraising race.
Where President Obama who had been lagging.
-- narrowly surpassed Mitt Romney in August fund -- what does that mean.
We're gonna do a lot of fun stuff today I'm kind of I'm kind of overwhelmed but to help.
Well -- As Fred Barnes he's the what -- -- title your senior -- no no no no it leaves us executive editor executive editor.
Quite -- annulment and a button.
The title inflation title inflation wheat -- we believe -- it did at the weekend you don't believe an inflated inflated currency but it -- you guys will go for it but.
He may be that but he is also of course you read in the journal you -- all the time and really.
One of the smartest guys in politics.
So Fred.
I wrote in my power play today which is available to you know for the cost of the Twitter follow -- -- -- That compared to the last reelection.
Which was George W.
Bush in 2004.
This is not that George W.
Bush went had been trailing through May June July -- pretty consistently John Kerry.
Who is has some confidence has some structural comparisons.
To Mitt Romney Massachusetts not the most natural retail politician -- -- etc.
And George W.
Bush has been trailing all spring and all summer.
Went into the conventions essentially tied.
And that came out with a nine point announced that he never gave all of it back he carried that onto -- to that point victory -- Obama has been leading.
And now looks like he's leading a little bit more how do you read your was your -- -- None crystal ball says -- the end -- -- and -- shoes right now.
Romney got no -- Obama got this somewhat of -- -- lose some of it but probably not all of it didn't it cited the case of -- where he's got a big bounce and and preserve some of it that's probably true -- Obama right now.
Now you quoted the Obama people say well this the race is set now when Obama goes on to -- well not necessarily but.
I think.
Romney now needs a bit of course correction he needs to get tougher -- he's become cautious again.
These back to the pre.
Paul Ryan days and I think that needs to change.
Right so the whole thing though is the name of the game for Romney we've talked about before -- survive and advance.
And they unloaded.
All hell.
Mitt Romney for five months.
Character attacks -- vampire you don't care women die of cancer you're a bad human you are care your character is unfit for the presidency.
Romney seems to have at least survived and all of that.
And my assessment today is that going into this -- if there's always Obama is and all of a sudden twelve points out.
It all comes out October 3 in Denver Colorado and they have their first debate that that's that that's the moment that the that there is still a lot of room for change in this race you buy -- -- I -- -- and Bono I think there is room for change in this race and I think Romney can still win it I think.
The debate is important in October 3.
But of course it's the first debate gets the biggest audience -- -- -- -- sets the tone for right.
The other two debates not much changes in the in the second two or the vice presidential debate -- -- Wimbledon really -- it'll be fun.
Well I think you can't -- give -- people who are more different than that Joseph Biden and Paul Ryan you know we have this policy walk in this.
You know boot up populist.
Things guys yeah I would just whatever you wanna call it yes it -- -- -- whatever it is but that.
You know I think Romney needs do what I think about what's going on -- -- -- really -- my own guess is that Romney will do quite well in the debate but.
What he'd actually defeat.
Barack Obama in a debate I think that's going to be hard to Obama's -- -- it that's a lot of stuff he's very quick witted.
The President Obama is and I'm so I don't think the Obama the Romney campaign can count on that I think they need to pick out a few issues and and hammer away -- I mean why in the world did.
Luckily no one Meet the Press on Sunday what did he get out of that.
He got a headline in the Washington Post that was all about all the parts of obamacare that he likes the rest -- retained.
That's a negative headlines for Romney why the what was he doing that.
You know pick out jobs pick out Obama care and pick out you know the deficit and taxes those three things just -- -- home.
What we -- happen in 2008.
Where.
Republican candidates certainly and John McCain's case in the bush people were guilty of this would agree to.
It's crave acceptance by the establishment press there is a thing yeah that says.
You know -- you know we knew we would like to be acknowledged and recognized.
And I'm sure there's a part of it on that -- the press and where it's like you have to you have to.
Sing for your separate some pointy -- Yeah what you don't hasn't -- it has President Obama got in any trouble with the public the voting public.
Because he doesn't have any press conferences anymore.
Nobody doesn't care about that nor -- he had a press cares about it but but they don't matter when it doesn't it doesn't issue.
That's when that.
-- the public spineless.
Nor has he done any interviews with America's news leader the Fox News Channel.
Other than a Bill O'Reilly Super Bowl interview that he did but he hasn't sat down with -- there isn't that -- Chris Wallace I think he -- -- but it hasn't -- that he hasn't right because it's hard to get people ginned up over press story it's a process that right NBC can blog about it and not that there's anything wrong with blogging about stuff but they can blog about it but that's all it's sort of like our viewers out there.
This is for you this is insider -- this is -- these are not persuade will be if if you're inside enough to be following minutia like back.
If you are already probably decided -- I think there's a very little correlation between high interest in the election political news and undecided that's I don't think they're they're very many people who are highly interest in an undecided right yeah well said I agree.
Well that's one thing I'm gonna mark that my credit I got one I got one -- from Fred.
We will.
Also see.
In 1980.
Ronald Reagan came out of conventions five point that your congress actually there was not nearly.
As much polling man.
As there is now we have constant obsessive tracking polling now.
Ability Gallup Reagan came out about five points down to -- And -- for them it was the debates the Iran hostage.
Scenario got worse and worse in that situation domestically got worse and worse.
But it was the debates that Reagan who had been caricature.
As a trigger happy Hollywood more on.
Stood onstage with Jimmy Carter people said that I think it's possible he doesn't seem like he's it's terrifying.
-- fool.
There's another factor though there that you that sort of skirted over I'm afraid Chris what did I skirts and that is that Carter was defying gravity.
I mean the economy was in terrible shape he was not regarded then it's up a particularly strong president.
And indeed he was gonna.
It does come down some -- wasn't as the debate yeah that could you say the same Barack Obama was glad I was outperforming his job approval numbers and the economy in DD years and I would and that's why at that at the Democratic Convention Bill Clinton and Obama himself and we're giving pleas for sympathy Christ or oh this whole house tried so hard didn't -- you have to -- four more years because he has such good intentions and he's he's made this effort and someone that's -- -- An unusual.
-- -- -- to make but the but the public that's what it is he's defying gravity but.
I'm not sure that.
Romney can do when a debate.
Against Obama what Reagan did against Carter meant to be hard to -- Carter was in worse shape with the economy and a and Obama's just better at that sort of stuff he's a more likable guy he's more quick -- he's faster on his feet.
Be hard for Romney to do I think he needs to do a lot before that debate.
What does it help spending like advantage billion dollars -- -- -- you've seen the new ads -- they'll help but you know I think it was.
Money was never going to be a problem for Obama he was always gonna have enough remember in politics you don't need to outspend your opponent you just need to have enough to get your message out and Obama does.
And they'll both have that OKMR Barnes has agreed probably against his better judgment -- around but when we come back we will talk more about Bill Clinton the big key the big dog.
And what it means that for him to be on the trail and how effective he'll be.
So stick around.
This is power play welcome back and the Republicans have opened up -- new interesting line as it relates to Bubba Bill Clinton.
That Barack Obama looks less good.
In fact when he is juxtaposed with Bill Clinton that is much as Bill Clinton can lend Tina.
Robert -- -- presidential.
Also missed two Barack Obama.
That when put side by side and their policies Bill Clinton highlights some problems for -- -- moderate voters.
Well we'll see about that but Bill Clinton is hitting the campaign trail for Obama starting on Tuesday obviously having enjoyed his turn in the spotlight.
And as we remember Barack Obama.
Assuring him off -- he -- the Democratic National Convention.
-- is ready to go and he's gonna campaign in Florida this week how does that work is there any truth to what -- Republicans say Fred Barnes.
So.
Newt Gingrich and Mitt -- -- made essentially the same argument which is that the chasm between Clintonism the third way.
New Democrats of twenty years ago.
And the more liberal Obama Democrats the Obama -- is so wide that Bill Clinton's presence on the campaign trail highlights.
These differences that sounds like wishful thinking -- Please thank you yeah.
He's certainly agree I mean you'd like to have Bill Clinton out there and look look what Clinton I did in his speech -- for a former president to come on.
And give some speech that he didn't believe many words of in -- But he's really throwing in with Obama and Obama is -- I think Clinton realizes it.
You know that.
New Democrats these moderate Democrats -- blue dogs are practically gone they're not even a part of the Democratic Party tonight they don't have a voice yeah they're not in the -- -- a feather as somebody.
That said before.
So.
Forget about them and then there's a notion that somehow I guess Gingrich was getting at is that Obama that the -- a Bill Clinton will overshadow.
Obama but you never overshadow president of the war presidential candidate number that was a -- -- Paul Ryan he's so strong he's -- -- around.
Not forget that because.
Who was the press going to concentrate on in their coverage they'll cover Bill Clinton they cover Paul Ryan -- -- cover the presidential candidates and particularly.
When one is an incumbent president but.
You know all in all.
I thought the speech -- shameless as it was Ford a former president.
It was politically extremely effective.
I don't think Obama -- asked for more than to have Bill Clinton's whirlwind with the as strongly as he did not Clinton has his own reasons he wants to be viable his wife may want to run in 2016.
Who knows but.
He helped.
So it's like this for Obama he needs to look -- it is very important for Barack Obama now.
We've seen in poll after poll.
The knock on Obama Obama's words were son is too liberal media and Romney scores on is too conservative Americans like to think of themselves as moderate.
Regardless of whether actual -- whose car.
But everybody you know it's sort of moderate is sort of like.
The lake what -- thing where everybody is above average older children are above average.
But the -- can Bill Clinton actually transfer much of that does he have the ability to.
This go.
Perception moderation.
Not really I don't think he can do that he can do -- -- to help you can draw crowds he can talk up Obama but not.
But not really do that but I don't think Obama's really looking to be that moderate.
-- look in my.
You know well he didn't get the convention -- -- hasn't and his policies he seems to a vote and he is following.
Sort of a base.
Rallying strategy.
-- a poison the well for Romney strategy and -- thinks he can put those things put together all the liberal interest groups.
And then -- these swing voters and independents who don't want to vote for Romney because they don't think he's an acceptable candidate after all the all the things that the Obama campaign has said about -- And I can win so I think I don't think hit it you'll we're gonna hear many pleas for moderation.
On his part and and we certainly didn't hear those in his speech at the convention.
And that goes back to our discussion in the than previous sentence which is -- the Obama strategy all along and we've talked about this here what's true.
-- -- The error in the in the middle so to create a space where.
They do independents and people say you know what they're both out of the Obama -- a terrible job.
Romney's awful.
I don't like either of them there's no good reason to go vote.
And in 2004.
That very.
Atmosphere delivered a win for the incumbent in 2004 George W.
Bush -- superior resources and the power of incumbency to squeeze a victory.
A 1161008.
Votes in Ohio out of -- point six million cast.
That he managed to squeeze a victory out over John Kerry.
And the Obama people think that they can do that but I maintain again and -- -- again I think there is a lot more play in the line.
On this race than there was last time I think that there are there are a lot of Obama's.
Orders were -- but we don't know I think there are well I don't know whether or Obama supporters at least Obama voters in 2008.
And you know that who did that this is probably the most focus group.
A few of any contingent of voters ever the 2008.
Obama voters who are disappointed in Obama's performance and our.
We're guarded is willing to switch yes to Romney.
But they aren't there yet and and Romney has that it has to get them and he hasn't gotten -- yet then.
Obama is poisoning the well in hopes that they will never go there.
And -- Romney and -- he needs to make.
A stronger pitch for them so far his -- been.
Well we sympathize with you -- you voting your dreams -- 2008 -- -- -- -- -- -- was cool and you have to sober up now I don't think that's a strong enough message even for this group.
There a medium of Romney campaign is afraid they're gonna hurt the feelings of these people and make them feel.
Like they're being rebuked for having voted for Obama in 2008 and then.
And maybe they should be a little bit more review -- and yet that's.
The the question here from -- you read this -- Is Obama after conventions have durable as is balance until America realizes.
He didn't blame bush for his problems is now saying.
That the last four years was our fault.
Our change.
And the sort of -- there is that interesting angle and what the Democrats had to say.
Which was like we all made a mistake together we we joined together and misunderstanding.
The situation and we're gonna do better next time together right she let.
-- -- that's sort of what they said but that's a -- message and and the notion is Bill Clinton said that no president could've done better than Obama did.
Well among other things I'm sure Bill Clinton doesn't and I had nobody believed that for a tenth of -- -- FDR I mean for heaven's sakes if you Johnson could have done better.
There there you go there you -- Andrew Johnson -- we knew that we would somehow end up with a copper -- Democrat referenced today because Fred was -- we appreciate you pretty -- I -- -- Barnes is.
Okay creating a quick break but when we come back who will be joined by.
Our all star panel in many insurer as a penny Lee and Brandon Blake -- join us and we will talk about fund raising whether it matters and we will roll around in the cynical politics of it like a dog on a summer day and enjoy every second of it -- stick around.
We will -- the other side.
Spend more money than we've ever seen on its.
And and you know these aren't like positive ads where they're putting out their plan.
Because they don't really have a plan.
Obama couple weeks back campaigning in Las Vegas.
Pleading with his supporters for their help because he was going to be outspent.
By Mitt Romney and the Republicans and this is power plant and guess what.
The Mitt Romney fundraising juggernaut rolls on.
Rolling down the road with sacks of cash in the back -- But guess who just caught up President Obama who had been lagging.
For several months brought in more than a 114 million dollars to the more than 111 million dollars for Mitt Romney.
And it looks like whatever the president was saying was working and they say got small donors energized to throw money at it how does this count on to -- -- -- It is.
But in terms of winning the race on the air who has the money.
To blitz the airwaves and we already know the -- they both -- -- it will be quick about that but then the other thing.
It is what does this tell us is a measure of enthusiasm.
Is this -- sign that the president's base now recognizes the threat that Mitt Romney really poses are they getting serious and coughing up the -- four dollars at a time.
On their Smartphones and all that stuff.
-- He and -- -- and are Smart fair minded patriotic human beings any is the president and principal events strategies she's former senior advisor to -- -- read.
Ed Rendell among other famous Democrats who are big deals.
And -- -- is a former senior advisor -- president George W.
Bush or president George H.
W.
Bush is -- Republican big brain.
And it is also a professor at the Georgetown University.
It's good to have you back on the -- space now.
-- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- Political -- -- yes exactly and I think that ranger have a good caricatures and face painting just trying to pick up some extra money along the way.
They don't like if you get your -- at the conventions aren't so it can be so the question is any.
Does it matter.
You know -- that it would is that Rahm Emanuel always say that first is the three keys to success in politics money money money that I.
-- -- struck by this -- the election -- that they forgot to mention forgot about it.
-- so he's got a little bit -- sun -- -- his problems right.
You know -- this.
So much money and that's actually right now.
Thirty million dollars a moderately so now he's trying to like chat and spores on the Airways deceit in whether or not he can actually the you can't define yourself going for so let's be interesting to see whether -- not this -- an actor there's been already so much out there and act to everybody you know really has -- and basically -- that there might think the latest as I was at 3% undecided right now.
I would argue that probably a lot of the such -- not gonna show up at the polls.
And it really is turn it and her.
Into it they turn -- the base -- so how much more of this money is going to be effective I'm not so sure I didn't think he was not watching the previous seven because we're.
Talking about -- Now.
Yes there is this.
Nominal 3% and as you say if you can't make up your mind -- two guys are as different as these two are and have flame throwers turned on each other's faces if you can't make up -- -- there's a pretty good chance you're gonna say neither please.
But there is I believe still a pretty big chunk of persuade -- Obama.
I think that -- has a floor of probably 45 but Obama's got a floor that's not much higher 46 right 47 maybe.
But that there are a lot of potential.
Swing voters who have because he's the incumbent said.
You know I'm going to I'm gonna go with the guy who's in there when we get to the debates and stuff those people could be up for grabs.
How do these campaigns spend the money to talk to those voters.
Well I think with the OK we got beaten.
In in the last.
Round of fundraising but not by much the other thing is about look at the president burglary the burglary of the Obama campaign is a lot more severe at least the president spends his only like he spends our deficit.
But he's gonna have they love it I think you -- -- -- -- going to have to.
Romney that is offered the alternative it's not enough to tell people -- bad things are they know how bad things are what you need to do is closed the sale on.
Making the change the other thing -- The people who supported Obama the most in 2008 for the ones hurting the most in 2012.
Unemployment among the -- 12%.
That you and minority populations in urban areas is almost double the national average so there may be any effect on the Obama campaign of staying home.
And if a lot of his base stays home he's going to be seriously hurt especially in battleground states.
Here's what George.
Group -- -- -- -- I'm gonna go with -- yeah.
There hasn't had Molson -- in and as -- says this how.
Obama rebounds how -- and for how long real big and for the duration.
And he -- get your take on this president obviously seeing that based money is a reflection of base enthusiasm.
You saw at the Democratic National Convention it was eight up.
-- the base like a pretty Tony there was Sandra and there was Jennifer grand home there was a lot of talk about social issues there was a lot of that stuff it was really -- combing the base.
-- the is that enough.
And he's -- -- a lot of the strategy going forward Carolina that you campaigned to -- really has been in this kind of micro targeting us as it as a campaign -- never seen before and molecular targeted -- in using the social media in ways that we never ceases to be really interesting test case to see -- -- -- -- is the new way in which we do campaigned.
What has been lost often times I think the -- -- did a good job with -- with his speech was that overall narrative.
He began to make that closing arguments as -- was talking about the does that the money really has to center spent theory -- search click and strategically that -- you we'll see that going for.
You know again turning out those key electorate that any -- Surgically killing off Mitt Romney's face.
Fifteen seconds for Romney.
Between now and October 3 what you need to -- Well he needs to he needs to brush up on his foreign policy experts I believe that while the president is that the UN GA in New York.
He should probably should be there.
Before the president's speech in New York to -- into the -- he should give a thoughtful address.
-- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- And now because it's Monday and we do not have a word from our friend Charles who gives you this a sliver of who -- as we watch Vladimir -- impersonate I'm not kidding you a crane.
And fly motorized hang glider had a great day we'll see you tomorrow.
