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Power Play 9/11/12

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    The long shadows of 9/11, Ryan rides into rough week in Congress and enthusiasm gap looms large for Obama.

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And that is a theory American moment happening very far away from the shores.

As earlier today Marines at camp leather neck and Afghanistan.

More in the civilians lost in the September 11 attacks in 2001.

And this is power play.

And take a moment to consider that -- -- -- if you would that you get to live in -- country if in fact you're watching from within these borders.

Where the people who are devoted to protecting you take a moment when the civilians lost a very -- And this is the anniversary of the September 11 attacks.

A somber day here in Washington.

And made more somber and poignant still because the weather outside is just like it was on that day eleven years ago Tuesday.

Tuesday and it is -- in person who just said yeah.

She's suffering Shia who could not wait -- -- just just she -- she knew a thing just when I was editing are now.

I have actually never -- it.

And letting me know what I missed something Susan welcome -- thinks about me.

And he does feel outside a lot like it did that -- and a the first knit football in the -- that period -- guys.

And and what a moment that what else.

And I tell you today I wrote in the power play.

Just in the morning because there's and there's so little that you can say it's been eleven years but it seems like it was just yesterday and going -- -- and reading -- included one of these.

Reading the logs of the phone calls made from people on flight 93.

When they knew if not they were going to die but that their situation was very dire trying to be strong for the people they love them for their children tremendously moving.

You can't imagine doing it you can imagine being -- -- just having that kind of fortitude to sit there and talk about.

Stormed the cockpit not just cowering in the back and -- -- -- -- -- Remarkable into the state we talked to stink about it and he's like dying.

And you know one other thing I thought of today it's good too good to have people that -- love enough that you wanna be strong.

That's right that's right absolutely a good day to count our blessings OK so.

September 11 here's and here's a data point for you.

In the new -- Washington Post ABC news poll.

And we'll talk much more about this poll later on because it has some interesting things reveal about the state of the race after.

The convention and guess what.

The -- for the president among likely voters did not materialize in this poll.

But in handling terrorism.

51 to forty Obama over wrong.

Killing Osama bin Laden which we heard a lot about last week in Charlotte.

That primitive Joseph Biden as the vice president has encapsulated.

The entirety of their reelection strategy and this phrase but so -- lobbyist -- General Motors is alive.

General Motors is looking a little looking a little beaten unless scores yeah that'll that'll be easy out there six DB or not sixty -- And -- youthful drivers we appreciate where we appreciate the cash that you're throwing -- -- -- drivers you have watching I don't know maybe they want.

-- -- maybe there -- live streaming in the car.

It's fine and it runs on colds -- people in West Virginia.

That's cool.

The question though is this for Romney this is day.

The good news is that terrorism and national security has faded as an issue very substantially since the bush era and global war on terror.

But for the president you know the last debate of three debates that they will have will be on foreign policy.

And it will be moderated by I think Martha Raddatz ABC news.

And Barack Obama's going to close this on a strong point for him which is.

Yeah I didn't keep Guantanamo and my base doesn't like it but I did it anyway yeah I did I did give the order that allowed us out of a lot to be killed.

Let me my base doesn't like that but I did it yeah I have X Trojan did Jim do you Norman international drone drone killings are about that I base doesn't like it but you do.

Moderate voters I thought some of his most powerful hits against Romney in his speech he might agree -- on -- post.

When he talked about what he said it in when he was in England when he criticized the Olympics and went the readiness and he really hit home and that's.

The last thing I would have expected four years ago is to have -- now in the position of being able to criticize -- on foreign policy because remember back then everyone feared he was the weakling and he's very liberal on some foreign policy was going to be his strong suit.

-- it turns out ironically.

It is and now he's got Romney.

On -- -- literally so here we got this debate coming up.

Of course economies a big issue will be -- be big issue it's just will be here's an opportunity go for Romney to blow it at the last debate if she's sounds worse off.

I mean I talk about giving Obama a chance to make a nice closing argument for himself.

You know displaying other polls are a tiny -- and -- he's really -- use uneasy he wants to start pulling -- had -- that this foreign policy debate oh no -- feet stumbles there -- that's like the last thing you want to happen to the Republican candidate is and -- lemmings which should have been a really strong point for him well.

-- you know the issue is that for Obama he has not been what he was expected to via foreign policy.

He has been.

Much more interventionist.

Whether it's Libya.

Foot -- and Syria.

-- the drone strikes this extrajudicial killings.

All of that stuff including of American citizens just imagine if you -- it right George W.

Bush having a kill list like of American citizens in his -- in the Oval Office and be like.

Crude we feel like killing -- -- who's up on the list today which -- Mexican will we be killing today.

Yeah he's neutralized civil defense argument that it probably is normally would have.

Luckily for Romney in this instance so the issue is the economy economy economy economy.

So this is all important but Saudi economy Missouri still -- But it's now it's it's total package the -- the good thing about you know that the rap on Barack Obama from both Hillary Clinton and John McCain and their surrogates -- -- -- was presidencies no place -- on the job training.

Minutes the only place that you can get that on the job training in the president's now that four years of.

But look let's face it people who are going people who were really mulling stuck between deciding.

Obama and Romney I think we'll make a decision not on form -- I don't think people that turn away from Romney.

Over foreign policy because he's not terribly weak and that area either.

And he's not sounded like the total -- he's a few -- but he's not coming across as a complete weakling.

No he definitely especially -- Russia and again thanks -- all the comments about Vladimir Putin's crane video yesterday we enjoyed showing it to you.

And look at the sequestration stuff -- -- talking about a all right now not showing leadership and prevent defense -- that's a good -- for him right now that's a real class.

We'll look at you know -- to our military strength -- billion offending country.

Do I think -- can make some really strong points for himself.

Aside from the fact he's made a few gas here and there so it's complicated it's tough -- -- complicated for around here and it's -- -- It's tough out there -- but one other -- let me get weird if we as we get down into -- Counties in the final votes that will see at the end.

For the president being as bellicose as he's -- Does that.

In danger some votes that -- that might have been about -- it's my coach Gary Johnson.

Or some other candidate for people who were anti war left.

That enthusiastically supported Obama Obama's been straddling on this issue.

And yes he can say we got out of Iraq but.

We -- already getting out of Iraqi just basically stayed at George W Bush's timetable.

They don't like Afghanistan does he posed does this pose any threat.

-- -- Well Libyan miniscule amounts sure but if we -- but -- -- -- coastal Carolina was like 141000 votes I don't I am an -- camp that thinks he.

I think your camp is fairly large yeah.

Not to say yeah that's not narrowly ahead.

But -- Okay did a little safer around here yeah stragglers out there I think I think Ulanova announced -- liberals again well because he's gonna make sure that Mitt Romney looks like a blood sucking cancer in different -- absolutely and that that's really -- to -- at times yeah where the word of the day is -- OK let's give -- SL senior.

The last word Chris and he and here he or she is talking about those Marines in Afghanistan.

That's the true meaning of the word hero folks that know what's gonna happen and do it anyway and that certainly goes for the people who ran to the rescue on September.

Okay we thank you for your forbearance and this sad but important topic.

We're going to take a break.

And when we come back.

We will get back to rank and cynical politics just as we always do my promise we are -- -- that and we'll be joined by our friend Mike Emanuel and we will talk about the week ahead.

On Capitol Hill and what it means Paul Ryan and by extension his boss Mitt Romney just to correct.

I think the speaker had difficulty convincing his caucus that modest revenue increases.

A tax increase on the wealthiest Americans offset very real tough spending cuts.

There were being imposed on middle class and poor folks that wasn't a deal worth taking so yes I was frustrated.

But that's behind us that's what President Obama said Scott -- of CBS news in an interview that you saw on Sunday he was reacting to a book.

That some people I sway here have actually read the whole thing by Bob Woodward it is a minute.

By minute recounting of a battle over the debt ceiling believe me a minute by minute we're counting of the battle over the debt ceiling that took place.

In the summertime between the president and John Boehner and people -- women and some people are actually reading and not just skimming -- -- and this is power play.

And we are going to see something like and you remember that.

God awful debt ceiling showdown.

-- that was one of the series of showdowns -- spending.

Now remember it and they austerity yet but the Republicans were able to obtain several turns cuts to future growth of spending this is Washington version of a cut.

In which the amount of money being spent goes up but it's still called cut its complicated may have something to do what we have -- sixteen trillion dollar.

Debt in this country and we'll have another.

Deficit of more than one trillion dollars and the person who was making that askance -- -- just a second ago.

With Susan -- you know she's the senior congressional correspondent for the Washington examiner my friend and colleague.

Or former colleague but the question Susan is this so this week house Republicans.

Need a spend a stopgap spending bill because the clock runs out win in the end -- the month.

Yet -- the months so we have this clear here as opposed to January January year federal spending and since September 30 star telegram first so -- come up with a new budget.

And that's something the two sides have never -- -- agree on in recent years and they've done this thing where they just had a short term measures may punt punt punt they keep spending about the same.

Things is kind of stagnate and that keeps him from having to fight over the real issue here which is.

How much you wanna spend how much you wanna cut with -- big looming deficit and debt problem they want to avoid that debate why because.

The election right around -- corner.

Nobody wants to get caught spending too much taxing too much is it either with the elect the government shut down enough so that's what it's not as they say here will just keep it as it's called big time both sides agreed to it because the stakes are so high does anybody get it -- bear in this anti.

-- we're violating elderly and we all lose basically.

I don't is doing and making hard decisions that will make our how our economy by helping our government.

Look more healthy economically said they -- on -- -- and I talk about that -- -- both sides.

Even though they're busy picking on each other for agree to do nothing and logistics stand spending as it is any big fighting.

Until when after the election so they'll get back after the election and then that will be.

Looming along with a million other issues that are going to set off this huge fireworks display of fighting over spending and cutting.

Now you have cutting to the core of the Internet knowledge.

-- -- point out that most of this is posturing and posturing that most right now is yes oh yeah we're going to go through because.

It's in everybody's mutual interest.

Not that government shut him but wouldn't Barack Obama be advantaged at this point if he could force the Republicans into.

Any absolute throw down at the end of the fiscal year.

No no because there's something at stake for him -- you -- if he forces Republicans -- he forces vulnerable Democrats into the same hole.

And their -- that they they -- -- on the -- he can't do.

-- wanna hold onto the senate -- -- hold on the senate but I think that.

Verdict of the -- -- pretty clearly that Barack Obama eats alone.

He does but he can't what was he -- next year with a divided government see if you can just hold on to the senate at the very least I mean I -- in that house back.

But if -- he loses a house and the senate.

-- -- -- -- go along with him if -- you can you -- imagine the blowback from Democrats in the senate if he tries pushing something like that mean you're right it would look like he's leading right now before the election.

-- that would just make the Republicans look if there would be filling -- -- and ends.

Let's let it depends what he would prefer propose a cake his Democrat the Republicans do make a good argument about some of these proposals on the president having the impact on the economy that they would it hurt the economy by raising taxes and hurting job creation they -- that argument and and they can make got a winning argument too so it depends what the president were to.

Need witness what went to an upper house and -- you can be careful to.

He proposes tax increase right now really mean you thankfully it has been -- -- not right this very talking about it with Scott Kelly just there that he what can I guess I'm -- these accidents yes he's very pro increased taxes say hi.

I need to I'm not you know twenty times anyway in -- -- -- anywhere and I got I got it done that many many times teachers -- many she's just yeah yeah yeah at the end of the day as they take enough he is his proposal many times right now it's about.

First ball he can pitch when every once this very reason he's the leader of the senate and I think Isaiah that's great photo at a time yeah that's where they always did I look at it watching keys are we gonna get I hear that can't.

Can you read this he says senate back in fiscal year starts in nineteen days and no budget.

This make four consecutive years without one.

Yes a CI -- Republicans make all the time it's the planning a blue prints OK it's not something cents down in believe or not.

And it's young Republicans make that Democrats have been unwilling to approve the budget the promise how much does that resonate with voters is no budget there's a budget -- -- people -- let's -- -- But here's an important consideration Paul Ryan.

And as -- chairman of the house budget them.

And he's going to be in the thick of this when he comes back right he's coming back on Thursday the campaigns -- -- yet he's coming back on Thursday to do this.

It won't help.

Mitt Romney with Republican enthusiasm if Paul Ryan comes back and says.

Yeah I'm cool with -- again what is abated you let him off the hook and let him do whatever he wants to do.

Let's get on the floor and talk about it a lot -- in the position today deliver the Republican message there's no question that he's going to be doing that she's gonna be what it can get the message is this is kind of this is kind of stinky but we're going to punch again well that's a living doing and that's what the Republican leadership -- set because they believe about all things the government shutdown is the -- worst possible thing right now.

So they always take the rule compromise -- now we'll just leave things -- is an and we get back we're gonna make those cuts after the election.

Everybody knows that the worst possible thing is vegetarian hot dog but the second worst possible thing by being might be a government shutdown.

That -- -- says I keep asking why we need congress don't do anything and Obama does whatever he wants to without them.

My I think the president only wishes I remember that a lot of what he said indeed -- we can't wait was.

Just.

Normally it -- stuff like putting solar four billion dollars worth of solar panels on government buildings which he could've done anyway yes he did the DREAM Act carve out.

That was to have conditional temporary amnesty for certain illegal immigrants.

He did a couple of other things but.

If anybody was overstating his authority to work -- congress it was the president of the United States.

That's true.

And it's this is it the silly season silly season is upon us so people shall be selling.

And and Susan did you read the Woodward book.

I know anonymity excerpts have mental thing -- the Washington Reid is my favorite which is you get the book you go through the index and you go to the names of people that your interest again or no.

Make sure that no one that you like or work for is listed in the book -- and then move off.

Susan we have to but we are very grateful that you -- congress today there's always a -- you always a delight to the Internet a bone to its weary soul.

And we will have more -- home for you when we come back.

And because here's what Greg the -- assess.

That the first tweet from Barack Obama today was the election is an eight weeks sign up to volunteer.

So wide as -- point that I have great points -- -- because -- read my power play today which talks about this bush -- -- -- Donna -- enthusiast who cap.

Between the Democrats and the Republicans.

It may make all the difference even as the president looks like he's getting -- -- it turns out among the folks were most likely go to the polls.

It's not there we'll talk about that when we come back -- stick around.

And we didn't wrap up and if you're tired.

And -- an -- Is blurred and the -- -- our -- -- arms and legs and I grabbed him.

Okay.

And bat was Canadian -- Former Michigan governor Jennifer -- home.

I think a moment.

At the Democratic National Convention in Charlotte last week.

And I can tell you I was trying to do it live shot at the very moment that speech is going on and you only get a sense of -- there the new ways in that arena.

There in Charlotte was deafening crowd loved what she had to say it was and and staging button.

In any -- eleven to buy anything but absolute diatribe.

Against the Republicans and against Mitt Romney and this is power but.

So Jennifer Graham who somehow got a southern accent -- that I don't know where that came to run by Jennifer grand home was part of a lot of red meat that was served up to the democratic base in Charlotte.

And you heard certainly Joseph Biden speech the vice president's speech a lot of that.

But you saw and a remarkable amount of discussion of social issues.

On abortion on contraception.

On same sex marriage things that the Republicans.

On those issues.

Were keen to try to minimize and even Rick Santorum self edit it a little bit you could tell at the convention is Republicans made their plea for the middle.

So why we're Democrats talking so much to their base in Charlotte that's what conventions are generally about that the Democrats were especially.

Attentive to their base remember that god in Jerusalem stuff that they took out of the platform.

That had to do with that to those are things that -- -- -- -- -- you you put things in your platform like the Republicans put the gold standard and their platform to appeal to the police does you put your your platform as it is a base stroking device went there -- that.

Well we'll talk about that we'll talk about a new poll that explains.

With your friends Jonathan -- geo director of communications for American crossroads.

You know that you may have heard about them makes their -- a little bit of money.

But this year and that's one of those.

Shadowy groups that the president talks about and he's a former Press Secretary for the National Republican Congressional Committee and it.

All around red team strategist guy and Garland Nixon.

Who as a very less -- very enjoyable radio show.

Under the PFW which major channel for jazz injustice and whether you like jazz or justice or it's a good place debate at -- -- public radio dial where I listen to my -- and perceptions so.

Guys Washington Post poll out today let's get right to it.

So here's what the Washington Post ABC news found about registered voters boom Barack Obama up fifty over 44 over Mitt Romney.

A big margin and goes to a narrative of a big convention -- -- the president it was a seven point swing he went from one point down 26 points up.

Oh my gosh.

But then.

They did something else they did for the first time this cycle their pollsters did likely voters and among likely voters.

It's time it's 4948 but respects there's nothing in there.

So am -- right we'll start with you Garland that the reason.

That the president is so interested in keeping the base energized is that there is an enthusiasm gap problem.

And that relates to who's going to the polls and who's -- about.

Yeah I think there's some a lot of truth of that I think devil we look at 2008 of course things were so bad that comparatively will probably never see that kind of of these two hopefully -- -- -- kind of enthusiasm again haven't we do things won't we won't be quite that bad.

But I think that now it's tough because we had this you know near depression.

And we're kind of recovering from it and people are kind of shell shocked so I don't think people are happy because the economy's not where they where -- really wanted to be.

And I think it's tough and incumbent right now and and and and I would say it is the Obama administration.

They didn't -- quite enough of red meat to their base over the course of the term everywhere it needed to roll a -- I think Hamas and nearly enough.

Not enough not nearly enough I think they weren't as good at it as a -- that -- health law thing that's seemed like it took a -- that wasn't.

That was.

-- -- -- -- -- -- The pool and the other side of the brain I don't know I don't know I don't know OK so Johnathan B in 2004.

Your team.

Did a remarkable thing which was they -- based vs base election which was a narrow election.

Where the middle basically got burned out there was burned over country and the middle.

Didn't participate there were a lot of independents -- -- it was a pox on both -- -- I'm not interested and then.

Your team the bush campaign which did the most remarkable -- job in the history of -- jobs and found a way to get to a win by finding more Republican -- a column they called micro targeting everybody does it now but it's going to precincts.

Where you don't normally do well in finding individual voters for your party that you can -- -- and get.

Spare no resource Ken -- it's still credited for doing a fantastic job.

The Obama campaign thinks they can do the same thing here.

Yeah harder did did different different election cycle I loved your column today.

On Fox's -- website because -- really got.

I think.

Because he really went into Kennedy insanity that happens after Labor Day with people following these polls yesterday at the all the talk of the town was as Gallup poll.

It should the exact same thing as a Washington as -- -- -- Obama up by five -- -- registered not.

Likely voters and the talk of the town -- Democrats that are referred to average running total bummer though raced over and over next day same exact results slightly different measurement and we're talking about it neck and neck race everywhere that Romney needs to be closed.

He is and this is going to be a white knuckle race all the way to the end Obama's strategy is yes find people in that registered -- Who can get out and vote for revenue may not be likely to -- right now Romney's -- much more on the eighth 10% of the votes in the middle and that's why he's convention didn't play so much to the red meat that went a little -- -- -- an independent and the Republicans to be.

It themselves very well there were that you even Newt Gingrich.

Held held within his -- -- he did not about it and I'm willing to boil.

-- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- So question.

When we talk about.

The shape of the electorate this year.

-- a lot of models that there's hope for is no way they're go to 2010 what's the electorate look like this year.

It looks far different I think you know that being the demographics are changing there's been economic issues I think 2000 to 2008 looked very very different than we've ever seen before and I think 2012 is going to be hard to judge.

Wouldn't you know the demographics are different but people are kind of the some people are scared some people upset there's different messages I tell you what I think's gonna make a big difference that usually doesn't.

The debate Joseph the debates don't move the numbers I think -- you know let's -- you what's the shape.

I think I think the debates are going to be critical one of these you really need to look at -- like -- Seniors seniors are very different in 2012 and they -- it at the beginning part of the last decade these are now people who grew up in the fifties -- -- people that grew up in the Great Depression.

That's a huge shift to the Republican you're gonna see a lot of a lot of people getting out the vote at retirement communities -- -- away the guarantees are going to be hot OK guys we thank you very much for your time we appreciate it.

And we appreciate you.

And and as somber and remembrance filled patriot day to all of you up next on the hunt with Jonathan Hunt and now as we like to do every day.

Well we've used the word from our friend -- It's the teachers average -- 6000 dollars a year in this hour.

That's the highest of any big city in the country secondly averaged.

Person who pace of their salary the person pays taxes in Chicago average salary 47000.

Dollars in teachers making 50% more.

Then those who support him.

Them on average they've been offered a 16%.

Hike in wages at a time of high unemployment in desperation and they turned it down.

Why because they don't want any tampering with the health benefits.

And they don't want any system of the teacher evaluations he can get some idea of who's not a good teacher.

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