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Movement on the 2012 electoral map?

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    Rove, Trippi break down the numbers

  • Duration 6:03
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We're going to talk for a few minutes about the magic number this November 270.

As in 270 electoral votes to win the presidency.

Let's get some insight on it from former senior bush advisor Karl Rove.

And democratic strategist Joseph -- Let's look at the map as we always do first of all gentlemen the latest map and lay it out for you can see the info on the key.

Read Romney blue Obama then the pinkish color is lean Romney light blue lean Obama and the yellow.

Those are tossup states within the margin of error and again this is all based on polls.

From the last thirty days OK Carl what has changed since we last met.

Well this -- map looks familiar it's because have been no changes in the last week.

It shows Obama plus leaves at 225 Romney closely is -- a 19122.

Electoral votes in the yellow states for -- Don't know that's not because we haven't had some Poland have been thirteen surveys over the last week in nine states.

But it for those states it didn't affect the average and in the other five well it affected the number it didn't affect their status.

Four states moved in the Romney direction Florida went from minus two for -- media time.

North Carolina went from tied to plus three.

New Mexico with a -- -- showed Romney behind by five moved from minus fourteen minus ten and New Jersey went from minus thirteen minus ten.

One state Washington State moved in Barack Obama's direction.

Went from a thirteen point margin for Obama to a sixteen point margin.

But not a single state changed its status.

Though there was important movement towards Romney you know most of these polls were taken during the week or over the weekend to it may not have all the Democratic Convention bounce -- into them.

But as of today no changes and then in the in the status from last week.

And Joseph you're seeing changes on your -- you put Ohio in lean Obama.

Well yeah I think one poll we have seen since the Democratic Convention in a state was the PPP poll on Ohio that put Ohio gave Obama five point lead there -- is democratic -- -- it's a democratic leaning poll but I've also.

Been privy -- -- -- focus groups and other internal things I'm hearing on the on the democratic side there's really renewed confidence.

That Ohio starting the lean Obama -- -- put it there now look.

These things can change five ways between now and November but today I put it in winning column from.

Obama Karl Monday if you talk to Republicans don't you disagree with by the yeah -- I disagreement in the polling data that live for the polls over last week and look I'm looking to private polls to ensure that a very competitive other up for grabs states.

Monday you talk to Republicans.

That some of them felt pretty down because of the pulling out of the Democratic Convention.

You look at this map Karl.

It's kind of where it wants -- yeah.

And look I'm not suggesting there might not be someplace different -- mean you have to have these conventions baking and their results.

But look at Republicans on Monday were down because they saw that.

You know CNN poll with a six point lead and they saw the -- post poll one point -- -- to Obama got a bounce out of but the question is how big is it going to be it looks to be smaller than the average.

Since 1964 which has been four point nine points for Democrats standing in the question is how persistent is -- going to be and I.

I say you know.

Be careful about putting too much into these post convention polls look at where things settle out at the end of the week or early next.

Other states that you're keeping an -- on -- -- look all he -- If you look at this map and they're all I mean Iowa is going to be critical Ohio again.

We can disagree with a about it today but it's clear to me that whoever wins Ohio is probably going to be an ex that next presidents -- reason.

That it did -- so -- it's eighteen electoral votes.

And there is movement I agree with -- -- you can't.

You cannot look at the movement from these polls yet it's gonna take a week or -- they come in but I think initially looks like Obama got the better.

Bump out of the convention -- I always interest in the spending a lot of time and I'll.

You have had more money is being spent per capita on television I will -- the Obama campaign than any other state.

The president went there for three days just before the Republican Convention but I think it's a very interesting state the western part of the state is heavily Republican.

Republicans do well in the western suburbs of -- -- in order to win Republicans have to begin to break through in the eastern part of the state northeastern Iowa.

When -- and sort of looks like Wisconsin has an affinity for a lot of the same kinds of people live there.

His Roman Catholic.

And the presence of the first Roman Catholic on the Republican ticket since 1964.

In the form of Paul Ryan I think is gonna help -- and then south what the south eastern Iowa sort of feels like you Paul Ryan's district of Janesville and we're seeing.

-- over the southwestern southeastern part of Wisconsin.

Except that it's got more hills and -- when they got a big river on the eastern side but otherwise.

It looks and feels a lot like his district so we'll see how goes with the fact that I was competitive after being a blowout for for Obama.

Four years ago is a sign of something.

Which is inching -- six electoral votes last thing we have this map app for the iPad.

You can download a lot of people have and they've been doing their own calculations and Joseph.

We've been putting every week somebody's map up there to go against you and Carl this -- exact Corey Wilson.

Tell us about this -- It he's got Romney with 276.

Electoral votes it's a possible win forum but what's significant about it is he he gives.

Ohio Virginia and Florida to Romney and it just shows the 321.

Strategy we've been talking about for the Republicans any one of those three states slips.

And Obama's the nominee of Ohio as we've been talking about goes.

-- -- Obama wins the presidency -- -- so it's a very good nap -- I think the interest and he gives Iowa.

That we've -- just talking about to Obama the so that you look at these states that we've been talked about all this evening and then there are all critical in.

In a very close race that it didn't leads Obama by only 270 -- Romney by 276 wins it.

Okay exactly Wilson thank you very much you can do it.

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