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Race for the White House: Electoral College update

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    Rove, Trippi sound off

  • Duration 6:59
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-- Newton Iowa we are fifty days away from the presidential election and there is a perception out there.

The President Obama is pulling ahead in some of these battleground states let's get some insight on the Electoral College map.

From a former bush senior advisor Karl Rove.

And democratic strategist Joseph Trippi.

First let's take a glimpse of the latest map you can see the info on the key is we always show you.

Read that Romney states blue Obama states then the pain patient is the -- Romney like blue lean Obama.

And the yellow states those are toss -- states within the margin of error.

This is based on polls from the last thirty days in this particular.

As polls just within the last thirty days OK Carl what has changed since we last talked.

Well first of all we had a raft of polls last week largest number of polls and one week 41 -- in twenty states.

Immediate aftermath of Democratic Convention they should reflect a Democrat bounce and they do.

For the first time we had a week in which the Obama changes in status were bigger than the changes in status benefiting Romney.

Two states moved from lean Obama to Obama Minnesota and Pennsylvania.

One state moved from toss up Michigan to lean Obama and that was offset by one state Kentucky which may have moved from -- Romney to Romney.

So we're we're basically so a slight shift towards Obama mostly in the upper midwest.

241 Electoral College votes between the Obama and lean Obama states.

To a 191.

For Romney between the Romney and -- Romney states at least a tossup states with a 106 Electoral College votes.

And -- -- say immediate aftermath of the Democratic Convention so it shows.

Fourteen states showed movement towards.

Obama's six states showed movement towards Romney but nonetheless in the immediate aftermath of Democratic Convention and Democrat -- and we sought in -- -- Joseph the significance there -- here in Iowa they're spending a lot of time both campaigns vice president -- here today Paul -- here today.

I was one of those toss -- states.

I was gaining in importance.

-- and one of the reasons is is it.

The map the electoral map is now starting to shrink with both Michigan and Pennsylvania I think sort of both campaigns are pulling out there a lot of their TV money and moving it into other states.

And those states moving in Obama's com.

The next state that I think is moving is North Carolina which is starting to lean to Romney even with that bounce that Karl talked about.

So that makes me put that sort of been a lean Romney situation if you if you have those three states doing that.

It's putting increased pressure and spending.

On a state like Iowa those six electoral votes in that state -- really are are now really gonna become front and center.

Yeah absolutely.

And Iowa we're seeing more per capita spending on television and Iowa.

How by the Obama campaign than any other state in the country in fact what's interesting -- Since June the television wait in North Carolina the Obama campaign is reduced its weight -- television by about 40%.

And yet and I know what they're buying more television in Rochester Minnesota points -- television.

Then there aren't any market in North Carolina even -- Rochester Minnesota.

Only gets to like 45 counties on another thinly populated rural counties on the northern edge of -- I should I think it shows -- -- North Carolina is as Joseph says.

Shifting into the Romney column and how much up for grabs Iowa is which was a comfortable win for years ago for Obama.

You know you talk about -- -- six electoral votes Joseph the big -- obviously is Ohio -- you look at those trend lines.

It does not look the best if you're sitting in Mitt Romney's -- right now.

No I am afraid you're right if you look at the real clear of politics trend line is average.

The averaging the polls in or Ohio.

It's really significant -- in the last year for an entire year Mitt Romney has never.

-- that average vote he's never been in the lead people bomb was held at the entire year.

It's it's getting tight here and now that that not only puts more pressure on the Romney campaign.

To go after Ohio but they've got -- win if if if Ohio were to stay in Obama's -- Then they have to go everywhere else Iowa New Hampshire Florida they have to win the entire rest of those states that remain toss up.

At this point yeah I did get a ton of emails about polls at about how they're weighted towards Democrats.

Could you explain to folks.

The dynamics here for polling and and how it factors -- Yeah looks each poll has a different political matrix let's take three recent polls.

A national polls on the last week.

CBS New York -- showed a three point lead for Obama.

35%.

Republic Democrat 22% Republican senate thirteen points more Democrats than -- had Republicans.

Romney winning that Republicans by bigger margin then then Obama -- -- Democrats and Romney winning independents and Eddie's three points behind.

ABC Washington Post which had a one point lead for Obama 32 Democrat 26 Republican and 37.

Independent Rasmussen -- one point lead for Romney 373626.

What how you break out the partisan matrix really has a big impact on the outcome of your poll.

Hi Jill I just -- and wrap up because we have this iPad app where folks in.

Put in their own maps compare them to you and Carl.

Send them to us we have one today we wanna talk about real quickly yeah -- James happy.

James have he has sent his map but I thought this was -- -- because there's 250.

Won no electoral votes for -- bomb -- his map.

Even if you give Obama New Mexico which he has -- toss up and that's I think we're Carl and I would -- right now.

It's interesting because he has a -- for Romney to win I want it he he sent me this -- this vote.

Romney's path is clear to me Florida North Carolina Virginia Ohio.

And either Wisconsin or Iowa I was still right there front and center in James -- these maps as well.

Ten seconds Carl last.

Work well look look at I have a minor disagreement Joseph said.

Home -- Romney had to take every other state under the scenario losing a while simply not true he takes Colorado and Wisconsin Ohio and Wisconsin.

New Hampshire Iowa and Colorado Nevada or Colorado and Colorado -- either Iowa or New Hampshire he wins he's got there -- eleven other ways to get there if you lose Ohio.

What happened to the three -- -- strategy.

I'm not I'd like I feel good about -- because Obama Obama is never above 50%.

-- stuck there in the mid forties he's not been able put away this day.

There -- enough.

Just because I'm not in the studio doesn't mean I can't control -- -- it did and I'm in Iowa I can still control and I joke Carl as always thank you we'll see you next week.

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