Silver lining in the polls for Romney?
GOP pollster Whit Ayres says it's not all bad news
- Duration 5:34
- Date Sep 22, 2012
GOP pollster Whit Ayres says it's not all bad news
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Was the Obama convention bounce -- Much of the made this past week about the president's lead in the polls and pundits on both the left and the right.
Suggesting that Republican rival Mitt Romney is headed towards certain defeat but GOP pollster whit Ayers.
Has taken a closer look at the numbers and he sees something else so welcome back to the program.
With good to see you again.
-- great to be with you so let's take that question first about the bounce.
Has -- -- This rush to judgment.
Is truly breathtaking.
There's so many people who basically declared the Mitt Romney campaign over.
Six weeks before the election before four debates before October jobs report.
I think if you really want to get a sense of where this -- is all you need to forget the headlines and look at the date.
There a number of good web sites that aggregate the data -- real clear politics right pollster dot com.
If you do that what you'll discover is that the Obama lead over Romney in June -- an average of all polls was 2.3 percent.
In July was 2.5.
In August it was 2.4.
And in September so far it's somewhere between 2.5 and three depending on the day you look.
So essentially this race is no different now than it was throughout the summer -- campaign that everybody's declared the campaign over.
OK but explain something to I think viewers who are looking at the -- these media polls on many media polls about the pew poll the Wall Street Journal NBC poll.
And they show Romney behind by 45 sometimes seven percentage points.
-- the Gallup poll is now essentially tied how do you explain that contradiction to Gallup poll is one that's been doing this for decades.
And and tracks -- on a daily basis.
A lot of the difference in these polls -- is in the Democrat vs Republican balance in the sample.
According to exit polls that were seven points more Democrats in the electorate.
Than Republicans but in 2010.
There was no difference in 2004.
There was no difference so a lot of the difference in these polls depends upon what you assume the electorate will look like.
Many of the polls with the biggest lead for Obama.
Are counting on the 2008.
Plus seven democratic ballot which is a big I don't think that's gonna happen that's a big gap I don't think it's gonna happen it's never happened before in the last fourteen years so do you follow Gallup.
Or do you think that that average of the polls like the real clear politics average -- the right which is the best -- to look at.
For people really care about this on a daily basis.
I think the best number to look at is the average of credible professionally done polls and you've mentioned several of them right now.
But if you take a look at the average of those -- you even out some of the sampling differences and I think it's fair to say right now.
President Obama is ahead.
By somewhere around 3% 3% it went the other thing that's been happening if you look at the data is at the president's approval rating.
Who has been creeping up it's now in some polls 4950%.
Not too far pretty close to where was with George W.
Bush in 2004 when he later won reelection that is in November when when he was creeping up to 4950.
Is that -- a very important number to watch.
Yes it is present Obama is right on the -- He is well below the job approval ratings of Bill Clinton and Ronald Reagan when they were reelected.
But well above the approval ratings of bush 41 and Jimmy Carter when they lost so he's right on the -- Another good number to look at is how satisfied.
People are in this country according to Gallup.
Now rats down from 77%.
But we've gone from absolutely terrible to just really really -- That is not something the president can count so that I assume that that gives an opening for Mitt Romney to be able to make up that three point average gap what are the other bright spots in the data for Romney if you're trying to say OK how can make up this -- The bright spots are that people are still focused almost exclusively.
On the economy and who can get this economy going we've seen how in the middle.
But people out there in real America -- totally focused on who can get this economy going they're scared they're open.
To Mitt Romney he hasn't yet made the -- and making the sale does that mean being specific about his economic plan because I've had this view that.
People are looking for somebody who not just gonna make general promises -- criticized the current president -- say look here's how I'm going to improve.
Your lives and improve the economy does he have to do -- -- with some specificity.
He has to -- a compelling vision.
And being very persuasive.
-- he knows how to fix it.
I don't know that he needs 57 specifically point a couple of three but I do.
I do think he needs three or four or five but he needs to put some meat on the bones -- -- a compelling comprehensive vision.
For how he knows how to fix.
This problem because Barack Obama has clearly not fixed right winners thanks so much for being -- telling us where the race really --