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-- I'm Doug shown.
Here again with our campaign insiders to absolutely -- former congressman.
Pat -- former pollster for Jimmy Carter.
Fox News contributor we're here as you might expect I think it's 43 days out to talked about -- the race stands.
What's happening and most importantly why it's happening.
I'd like to get right into it.
And put the Fox News poll with the presidential horse race based on -- thousand -- -- national interviews I think it's a 1056.
Shows a 4843.
-- and John I'd like to begin with you what conclusions you draw from this and how does this tie in to your view the right slide.
Look at every poll -- read every -- every day that comes out Doug.
And I never take any one poll and say that's yet I I think if you read the -- looked at -- we we've all three of us agreed.
That the race is still close still winnable for Romney but Romney is behind the president is inching ahead a little bit.
And it's up to the Romney campaign.
To inject upward movement for their guy.
Sound because as you said 43 days -- dwindling days and yesterday.
Was a a blank check these days something tends to happen to get movement into the Romney operation.
Pat had a usage -- John -- might think -- what we're seeing in the polls is look there's a lot of confusion about these polls.
Because as we've discussed on on before previously.
You know the question of likely voters and on one registered voters.
The bias that we are you looking to 2008 turn on all -- and simple it's a close race.
But Obama has -- we made real progress.
In the sense that he's got control definition the campaign.
His approval ratings -- fifteenth.
He's got people believing what -- is just amazing amazing moment of of -- But things are really better than -- we were running ads saying -- better this is a hospital the first order but it's working is putting that argument out.
Brought what you said is it Romney's argument -- that he has no argument on these things.
And that you know and that I think that.
He's not pushing -- -- -- -- campaign this week he didn't campaign last.
Week ten days two weeks you do want -- vanity sometimes not swing states.
A moment for him they've got to get back in and get on the initiative it's due September your month rough.
Rough months for challengers normally anyway but he's having a particularly rough.
Do you believe these numbers.
As being an approximation where this race fans -- 4843.
I think it's probably national -- closer than that I think it's probably.
You know 23 points but.
And I think the swing states are not -- exaggerated but look what we don't assume people gonna start voting we do know one thing and which is stunned me yesterday.
In Ottawa the absentee ballot requests which is secretary of state -- -- that.
And this it was in the in the morning registered whom I had an email yesterday from friends saying.
The 70% of the the application going to Democrats on the got that's pretty.
So what -- them when Richard first 77000.
Its way up this a week ago.
There was a fifty foul 77000.
The democratic margin over Republicans was fifty some thousand.
Absentee ballot request that doesn't mean they've been turned -- -- haven't voted yet but it's not a good sign and it's a bad sign about the energy.
-- -- -- And will reduce energy and organization and has a good campaign.
Encourages people to if they want to get absentee ballots and then what you do is when the people get the absentee ballot you go to them.
By direct mail and phone and urge them to vote.
Get this thing done for your guy it's a that's a helium out of the advantage that the Democrats -- to enjoy it organization owner pat.
Deciding anecdotally with -- IO I do sample ballot on time not absentee ballot.
It is a representative of what's going on nationally.
Yes I -- and I think we thought this for a year we've discussed on this Monday show.
That the on the ground get out the vote offices field workers thing that Obama has.
In about twelve states is vastly superior.
And I don't blame Romney totally because Romney only won the thing in March.
But we did notice he wins the Iowa we thought he won the Iowa caucus have -- -- and -- narrowly winning.
They closed up shop and Iowa and left and the Iowa that tomorrow when headquarters for Mitt Romney is now the headquarters for Barack Obama so they were going to a state put a lot of work into it.
In the caucus and pack up believe they -- left something there for the Jenna and.
Returning his second back to some other polls but I want to follow up -- a point that both you and pat were alluding to.
Which is this issue of resources and here's my question and it's for both of you -- you might start.
I have thought after the August fund raising numbers came out with a super pac money.
That in the swing states Obama would be outspent two or three to one or more when you combine the RNC the super pacs in the Romney campaign.
-- from everything I've seen the Romney campaign is being outspent.
Tough way out of him by even greater margins than -- I'm -- 5671.
On one State's eleven to one since what why it's happening because they're sitting on what money they have with the RNC does this make sense no not -- me but I got the number of the Romney campaign makes sense to me but I assume that they're going to.
They have these secret strategy that won't work because I want to tell you something in a period when people are making up their minds.
And and getting in doing this to give the other side 85621.
Advantage in these swing states.
Bill's momentum and the -- helping push the -- any poll they can find it shows Obama doing well is being.
Mainstream media is promoting.
This time you know I went to a Romney fund raiser.
But what did what did you see what did you hear from what do you have dictated to what pat was saying about.
Romney -- interest glad you asked me -- two things I had never seen run in person -- a week ago Thursday I went to the thing it was 25000.
Dollar ahead of 54500.
Dollar had so you need somebody looks while I was -- -- attended to I wasn't gonna go to thankful that day before when I got an email saying they can't sell any tickets and locust valley Long Island at a hedge fund managers.
Huge place so they -- come for 500 dollars ahead.
So I -- -- -- I want to.
There was nobody there -- a lot of people were cops they got free tickets.
People were holding up their iphones to take pictures of governor Iran and the Secret Service would come over and swat -- -- -- you can't do that and I thought that seemed a lot.
Little -- I know what was coming there -- days later.
I -- off the party the fact that they could raise any money at the party as a momentary blip in an otherwise smooth sailing.
Five days after that we -- -- they haven't raised the money we thought they have they don't have the money we thought they had.
Couple that with the Wall Street Journal today big article that super pacs spending is huge -- is hasn't really had any effect on the race.
And the answer is we've said it -- of us repeal would pay money is great when you gotta have a message.
The Republican side doesn't have a message the democratic Obama's side has a very negative mentioned message that is really taken Romney down.
But let me put up two on its own thing on the wind racing me just review you've John you made this point last night.
And it's interesting there was an article in the paper they -- that -- -- timed out that there are.
The system 32032000.
And contributors in the primary to Max out -- -- -- 500 dollars and maximum federal contribution.
To Romney who have not given for the general election.
Which is amounts to eighty million dollars.
-- are missing.
Easy money team and leave only one phone call letter or email please -- again and you have 81 and they they did not -- -- why -- they -- Probably don't think Iran is gonna win that would be my best guess well that's where the momentum argument -- and let me let me put up two more polls one.
After the others first -- the rest of the Gallup daily tracking poll.
Which has the races you can see 48.
The 46 the second is the Rasmussen.
Tracking poll which has the race 4646.
-- We've had holds all over the place the Fox News or plus five these are either plus two -- even.
What's going when I do we explain small partly I think the balance CB -- -- president got.
But an actual boat races coming down from his convention which -- had.
-- foxhole some measures some of a lot of rescues and is likely voters Gallup is still registered voters them on what -- voters.
That I might might rule by my quick rule of thumb is I think -- two -- them is -- the difference usual.
Anything you'd be pretty good -- daily tracking tracking over -- And they show -- -- racing show if you saw on the on the -- you know 8% other undecided in rescues and could you have been -- you push people think there are a lot of persuaded more voters because -- I think a lot of people think come things are we didn't go well with the Obama and a lot of people don't like Romney.
One -- you kind of music while ice I agree -- -- -- and I learned from you two guys from the console was stopped by a -- pollster as a candidate you know I learned and developed a pretty good feel with my stomach for what the race feels and wounded two campaigns run ran.
Have a sense when the momentum was going in your direction and he gets to yes now congressional candidates have -- want to -- you go out you meet.
Regular people I don't think and you don't you pick up right away at the train station in the morning first time I ran all we love you we -- Second time now I don't like it and you get it now the presidential guys never be.
People who aren't screens.
By the Secret Service so you don't really know this but if you're good if you.
Watch enough T -- and you read everything you can feel this campaign are -- and I didn't sense don't you.
Feel -- sense in this campaign.
That Obama's doing better.
-- -- -- -- -- I mean let's just face it I can Romney's losing and I'm looking these polls was close enough I'm we're not saying it's over I think Romney could turn this around the right.
But the fact of the matter is right now.
Except for the little period when Brian was picked prior to the convention for six months now Obama has controlled the initiative.
And did the definition of.
He had -- a player -- -- -- both you're making very good smells bad yep yep he'll spend the key to politics.
He's what you're saying and so you can have a gazillion dollars you can have.
The best kids in the world but if the message is wrong.
-- the messenger as well.
-- the message and the messenger or wrong you're not gonna win and I would say the great failing of the Romney campaign.
Is that they still at this late date 43 days out.
Do not have that message.
That -- -- cuts and -- to your point.
I didn't I didn't we all agree that the Ryan message.
He's the wrong message to the party but at least he's somebody different and -- a particular like -- -- the message is nonexistent.
Or wrong right and the messenger.
-- -- -- To be heavily torpedoed.
By the Obama camp so he's a flawed Tamils messenger that look we may all -- old war words on this because herself five weeks ago but.
You know I just did not detract from the fact that for five months for more.
We have since it's much more we give it tried to explain the need for Romney to define himself before Obama define himself.
To lay out what the issues of the campaign war -- -- people would grass.
To provide some urgency economic growth how many times that -- -- I suspected we sent somebody back.
You know we might do this and put all the stuff we've been saying he would become -- -- people would -- -- with repetition -- in yet Romney's still they still don't have -- they still don't have a compelling argument other than he's not Obama and I think -- our messages there.
And if he doesn't get to -- the first debate but again he's got a lot of crime.
-- -- -- What I'll just got honest thing is.
Yeah he's got time but let's remember early voting has now begun in South Dakota I think some other state this week's gonna happen and more states so -- absentee -- -- started.
The election he used to be really peaked on Election Day up your peaking -- -- Right now and Romney are clearly -- not -- me in so I wanted to get back to that point on the first debate.
And some swing state date of the electoral map.
In just a second thanks for joining us -- campaign insiders.
Welcome back I'm Doug -- on here as I said earlier with Pat Caddell and John -- boot -- my colleagues and friends on campaign insiders.
We've been talking about the polls the state of the race.
Now we're gonna turn to the electoral map.
Some key state analysis and then pat is going to offer his own analysis.
Of the role of the media.
So let me -- that we put up the electoral map and you can see as you look at that map.
That ultimately you've got I think it's about 247 for President Obama.
For governor Romney and the bottom line -- -- Governor Romney loses Florida are loses -- Ohio or loses Virginia.
All of which I think he's trailing and if memory serves me he will lose this election pat what is this -- -- you.
-- communities it's getting worse rather better -- -- time it was getting better for state something off.
I think good he you know I don't think you can correct this state by state.
I think you've got to move the national picture here.
-- now will move some of these states back in is it a bit more competitors saying a state by state played just isn't gonna work for governor around.
-- -- know I don't know this is a presidential election.
You need to change I mean we're -- -- all on this idea.
That yes these states matter -- close state to put the resources and you contested but to think that's the only case you win the election bottom up and -- -- brawl.
This country moves on in big waves on national elections on how to use -- dealer program.
I think Romney's in terrible shape because each week -- put this thing up here where he's been inching up for a while he was at 221 thing is at 231 that hey while went back into its -- when they moved Wisconsin back undecided.
Then they put it back.
It's 231 and then something else recently won admission to Michigan -- that's sixteen and takes it to 240 salaries and miss one easy three moral and.
-- -- little let me put up the some of the swing states from real clear.
Politics from last week you see Wisconsin.
Is plus seven.
Michigan plus a Iowa plus.
Three point nine suggesting that as soon we were I think pointing out.
That the Wisconsin and Michigan have moved in the democratic column.
Iowa while not quite leaning Obama is certainly starting to trend that way and Colorado similarly I think.
He's heading in that direction given that the polls that are recollect from Virginia.
Florida and Ohio -- shows so -- to.
Five to seven point Obama -- this is a map that is -- in my judgment decisively of managing so the president.
So -- yeah I did -- and it goes to the question not to rehash it but.
You gotta think these things throws that candidate and the campaign what was governor Romney thinking when he picked congressman -- and what was the point of picking him.
And I never get to people would give me the same answer always been an -- -- why was -- victim when it.
What's your take now -- -- we've picked crying because -- like team many thought it was like one of his sons and you get this guy in the issues and whatever in this and you know we I've sent to time to reveal picked rice I still think rubio is the obvious choice it would take in Florida often made some effort.
But but look -- they'll probably be state polls months recognized as they're all showing turnouts.
A ball I mean democratic advantage is above 2008 maybe it will be -- election that is his democratic his 2008 if so -- Republican House is gonna get wiped out.
-- in the republic who loses senate I don't think that's the case.
-- think it's very hard to have these discrepancies statewide.
And have the national situation what it is.
That doesn't matter it did or the trend in the direction is the same and unless you reverse that and you have a problem these polls and media seizing upon.
To building narrative.
It depresses the Republican campaigns that depresses contributions.
In their boots Obama which isn't back with the members because he has ever been this bad before address in my lifetime -- never not only did this bias.
In favor one campaign except for 2008 but now -- really in there.
And I must save what terrifies me the most is the coverage last.
Ten days we had -- -- Stephen -- -- and Libya the riots in Egypt the riots around the world in the mainstream media for the most part.
Has taken a -- to report those the American people.
And I think we're running out of gas who have politics we've crossed the -- here we human the media won't tell people what's going on that's when he embassies were under attack last week.
That the administration is essentially.
Had to reverse its position and they were either lying or they were stupid about whether or not this was as hard as a situation.
Robby needs to take this on there are three teams on the field -- -- -- team the Obama team and the new mainstream media and they're sacking Romney and blocking.
That would -- -- -- replacement reference there worsen replaced represent deserve playing.
John how do you see this kind of overstating the case -- and all but what what what as a Republican none of that surprises me I know the media's always again will resume its success.
I creates more but if I'm Rodney I would have known two years ago when I decided to run.
I'm going to be up against the toughest media environment for Republicans ever and I got to be ready for Logan but yeah it's not like there isn't -- on the Republican side there's fox there's talk might -- -- -- entering the boxes we had balanced while thing we didn't have an outlet.
-- a Republican won when you did Jimmy Carter and I ran for the house say here.
The Republicans had no place to go -- eggs to get a couple minutes on network and.
Went into the press let me say this the press were much more equal opportunity on everybody please go to one campaign and outfielder but look at the Gallup poll this week.
Which on Friday at 60% of the people the highest number in history.
Saying that they did not trust the press to give them full and accurate stories.
First time it's ever hit 60% part of Republicans I'd be making that part of my narrative about why you're not hearing much there there is no part of but they have no there there every day there's no matter.
Turn to a slightly.
And I didn't use the prerogative of the chair mr.
-- to answer my own quest to.
Which is predictions I'm gonna make the first one.
And John -- appreciate whatever support you can give because I know what's gonna happen to cut I think governor Romney who's made.
Most decisions and -- very differently than I would make them.
It's gonna come out swinging against President Obama.
In the first debate I think he's going to be very aggressive.
And -- Newt Gingrich said.
In recommending the governor Romney quote do.
To the president what he did to him in Florida I think coming around he's going to pursue that strategy.
Pat in my right.
-- I think you may be right about what they'll do but that's not what they should do what's there is a winning I'm not gonna tell you anymore today.
Because -- quite tell you the Romney campaign won't won't do it.
And -- and I hit it rises so do other spots -- Next -- there is -- different friendly garlic with little effect on sudden death on Fox News Channel.
The eve of the debate.
Will you let us know by somebody who handled.
Jimmy Carter's campaign against Ronald Reagan and then Walter Mondale's only winning debate against Ronald Ramon -- -- when you let us know.
What needs to be done and how would it needs to be sure about an hour now -- -- by you know we'll never -- Spokane and I don't I don't want to jinx it John what is you're pretty.
I I think that a Romney will do a decent job in the debate I do not think you'll score a knockout.
And I think that every time -- seizing upon name he has not lived up to the quite the level that involved do.
This is he didn't give a great speech at the convention when he -- itself.
I remember you saying.
They tend to rise to the occasion and that speech he didn't.
And he really needed and I think he'll do represented at -- Fairness from Romney let me say we have -- second we do that he did in the debates during the campaign with his back was against the wall he had terrific debates.
His back is against the wall if he doesn't know it yet I'm going to tell.
Mean if it's against the wall but he needs a game he does -- that adopted Al Hashemi -- o'clock -- and they drugged out Rick Perry is not to say -- is the incumbent that's that's true and incumbent president without a teleprompter reading the same as he is on the teleprompter all right I'm not dependent on medical marijuana is gonna knock -- he needs he needs to change.
The focus of the -- game changing -- on Sunday.
At five Saturday and then back here at 1030 on Monday.
Game changing will be the subject.
-- -- will be the object.
-- fall are intense focus as he will -- Kate what governor Romney needs to.
Do for John Ridley and mr.
I'm -- -- homes campaign -- doctor doctor Don I don't know and I thank you very hot human.
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