Latest changes in electoral poll numbers
Rove, Trippi break down the map
- Duration 7:45
- Date Sep 24, 2012
Rove, Trippi break down the map
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This transcript is automatically generated
We are a little more than six weeks from the election and the Electoral College picture continues to shape up let's get some insight now.
From former bush senior advisor Karl Rove and democratic strategist Joseph Trippi.
It's put up the latest -- can see the info on the key is we always do read Romney blue Obama.
Then pink -- is -- Romney light blue blue is lean Obama and the yellow states those -- the toss -- states within the margin of error.
This is based on polls.
From the last thirty days OK Carl what is changed since the last time we talked.
Well first -- we had a record number of polls last week 52.
In eighteen states we've had a larger number of states being pulled but we've never had 52 polls.
Four states change -- status and moved towards Romney.
George is somebody finally ran a poll and what happened was what Joseph I've been thinking for months the state went from -- Romney to solid Romney.
New Hampshire the polls moved it from a lean Obama to a toss -- state.
And interestingly enough these polls in New Mexico and Pennsylvania with a total of 25 electoral votes.
Move those states from Obama to lean Obama these were offset by three changes that helped.
The Obama column Wisconsin moved from tossup to -- Obama -- -- moved from lean Obama to Obama and Arizona -- move from Romney to lead Romney.
This drops Obama's total of Obama states to a 196.
Plus he has 51 lead.
And he grew slightly -- -- 159 electoral votes in his column plus 32 lane.
It was a week of some changes not a lot but generally compensating changes -- -- Those the significance.
The most significant would be Wisconsin now moving to lean Obama vice caution here look there's -- group.
Al wire pulls out there there's a poll it shows Obama leading in Wisconsin by fourteen points.
That's kind of skewing this but I do think Wisconsin started -- that's shrinking.
Is shrinking the electoral map the -- other surprise for me still is that.
North Carolina remains on our map -- toss up this late in the game forty threes or so days out.
It yeah I would have expected it to move off the map a bomb on May still go after I don't know the sources say.
Now Joseph last week we heard Karl talk about the polls and how he believes there are skewed towards a democratic.
Turnout maybe even towards it and no way to turnout model you have a different thought about how the polls most of them are.
Being -- Malia are certainly looking at that the data in Iowa and in Florida and some of the recent polls and what you're seeing what I'm saying is.
A drop of of four points with independents put a rise of four points among people identifying themselves and Democrats -- I think it's actually what we're seeing is.
Independents who can say they are born to any party at any moment.
Are starting to shift.
There identification to Democrats -- so let me -- the -- that you're saying all of the numbers are down.
So that the independents.
Are up people that say the Republicans are now saying the Republicans are independents.
But the Democrats are saying roughly the same music there's thereby -- Democrats yeah Democrats and Republicans are saying relatively the same real Democrat Democrats who say they're Democrats Republicans who say the Republicans are are still saying that.
But independents in these elections often start to say I consider myself a Democrat -- I consider myself a Republican.
They consider themselves Republicans we got killed on the democratic side that's not gonna happen this time.
That kind of a wave but there's signs now that they're starting to identify with the Democratic Party.
So I don't want -- he's not buying that these polls are skewed towards Democrats.
Well I'm not by what he's what he's trying to sell it would surprise yet look I think the problem is this I think too many people are waiting their models.
In the state and on the national average two a 2008 model that is to say they're showing a disproportionate democratic turnout in the exit polls.
Plus seven points for Democrats in 2000.
And eight and in the end reflected in a -- in a similar matrix change inside the individual states had too many of these polls.
Are matching their models to that you take a look at some of these polls and some of these states.
You have eleven and twelve point democratic advantage -- in -- in in in in the poll when -- 2008 it might have been close to that.
But in most instances that's -- -- historically has been and that's not what it's been pointed to towards this year.
And so look what we'll see shortly but I I do think that that he we -- in Wisconsin -- public polling shows a state moving in Obama's direction.
The president of the United States does not then go into the state for the first time 220 days.
And begin running millions of dollars of advertising because the -- is comfortably put away their internal polling shows -- been difficult in the state which is why the presidential wanna.
You know Karl a lot of folks analysts.
All across the board were saying boy this has been a bad two weeks for Mitt Romney.
He's really had a tough go and yet you look at these numbers and he's still very much in this game and -- -- -- Picture in the map.
Yeah look it's it is that close race look at the national polls would show this essentially dead even.
Most days in Gallup daily tracking and Rasmussen tracking.
Sure on this race dead even or 181 -- editor the other -- one or two points at the most.
Effect look the Obama campaign knows this we got a new narrative from them which is look.
Who national polls are a lot dead even.
But we're doing a lot better on the battleground states -- mean it sounds like their strategy is will lose the popular vote -- will win the Electoral College.
That's an awful hard you know needle to thread but that's a very close race candidates are rarely as bad as they think they are.
Or conventional wisdom thinks they are and rarely as good as a conventional wisdom things here.
Yeah look we that we do we we ought to just say focused on the fact is they'll be -- very close race right down to the -- -- -- break for at the end one where the other.
But that break is gonna come until after the debates and when people feel they finally need to make up their mind.
It's very last thing quickly Joseph we have this iPad app.
In which people can put up their maps against yours and Carl's.
Chad -- is the person -- -- -- tell us what this really looks create -- he's got Ohio going with Obama.
But still Romney wins but look at the states that he gives to Romney in the swing states Nevada.
North Carolina Virginia Florida almost all of them.
And in what that shows is two things the importance of Ohio because if that thing goes with Obama or -- -- -- why Romney needs to hold it if -- can't.
And then look at every single one of these states if Romney loses Ohio -- Obama.
One of these states goes like Iowa.
Nevada and he's got it to seven in winning the president's anymore it's Obama.
-- -- -- Look there -- eleven different ways to win without Ohio you'll notice he doesn't give Colorado or New Hampshire.
To a Romney which I think are frankly both insurance policies.
Again this this shows how close the race is going to be.
You can save Romney is in danger of losing -- you can say -- in danger of losing this is gonna come down to the last ballot on the last moment at the last evening of the election.
But I think this map gives a little bit of insurance in the pocket I think Colorado to New Hampshire bulls are gonna end -- and Romney column.
Thanks as always to Carl and -- and to Carl's point at the beginning there about record polling.
The polling is only ramping up as we move closer to Election Day since we taped this segment earlier in this day.
Nine new state polls were released nine of them.
All of them went toward President Obama but none of them moved to state on the map to another -- -- and Joseph will be back next Monday.