New polls give President Obama a slight lead in 2012 race
Our Campaign Insiders weigh in
- Duration 8:44
- Date Sep 25, 2012
Our Campaign Insiders weigh in
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Some national polls this week giving President Obama -- slight lead over governor -- According to the latest Fox News poll.
Of likely voters likely voters say that they would vote for the president over governor Romney.
-- a change there but the latest daily tracking polls which we will get you in just a moment suggesting that the race.
Maybe tightening up.
So is there still time for the Republican nominee to convince voters otherwise let's bring in our campaign insiders John Olivier former Republican congressman.
For New York pat in LA Fox News contributor and former pollster for president Jimmy Carter and Doug shown he is a Fox News contributor and former pollster for Bill Clinton so I get to join the guys today and also talked about welcome thanks for having me today.
-- had these polls they're changing every day and this latest Fox News poll let's talk about that yet we'll.
We're seeing in the polls in your comment is exactly right -- They're changing every day because this is a very very close race I think we agree.
That there is a slight Obama advantage but I also think we agree and I certainly feel.
That the election is by no means over governor Romney -- had a rough stretch.
President Obama has benefited but bottom -- Heather this is still a race in flux in the debates will determine.
Where -- got to say attribute that latest Fox News poll that -- Obama up by 5% to the rough week that -- having a rough week you know rough patch -- since the Democratic Convention.
The Romney campaign I think -- -- great has been invisible.
Yet they have made some gaps and I'm not really been -- -- you know.
And in the Obama campaign has had the initiative became out of the convention with the initiative and I think Romney's had two weeks of some problems.
And I think that that's who reflects the polls it's amazing is that they keep closing up.
There's also we don't part of the problem is because I get all the time I'm sure viewers through some of these polls are registered voters some of -- -- likely voters some of them have weak too many Democrats in them.
Some of them don't put on what -- said overall -- there's no doubt that Obama is being had.
-- gonna have the upper hand the last two weeks.
And it's registered to other things -- job approval rating is your pick the in every poll which is a problem for Romney.
And also people are being you think there's there's -- coming down of the negativity about where the economy is and -- where things are going.
So the Republicans have not been dominating the message.
I -- I want piggyback on this to Heather that.
The polls that show this thing very close.
Are actually bad for Romney because I think they put complacency.
Into his campaign.
On Scott Kelly on CBS the other night he gave an interview and he said on -- the race -- -- were tied.
If he believes it's time and not that he's behind.
He will not have that.
And the urgency that he needs and we're all.
Flummoxed over what has been going on in the Romney campaign last week he went six days without doing one of rally in a swing state.
It's incomprehensible with seven weeks ago.
And it's it's worrisome for those of us who look at this time.
Now let's take a look at the latest Gallup poll and this is as you were mentioning registered voters important to point that out and it puts them.
There again there's the council President Obama.
By white to do what you want to point there but you know with a margin -- that's basically tied right.
And this is what we were saying we've got a two point lead a five point lead.
And as you suggested at the outset the numbers are jumping around.
When you see poll numbers jumping around you say to yourself this is a fluid race it's not -- what -- John was saying was equally true.
The president's job approval is inching up and governor Romney has yet to articulate.
It clear alternative message for why people should vote for.
Given that the numbers are just still fluctuate and that they arm you know the other day gallop had to be even them two points -- Neeson and actresses still happy that we cannot let up -- as white Poodle mix the Gallup has registered.
-- -- -- likely he's -- -- -- -- Romney up point for several days this week so I mean did you bouncing around but when it's the election is close.
But I agree with what Doug is saying.
The Romney campaign is not -- and we can.
Not about not campaigning won't help but some of their other problem.
It's hard to mention get I get you to comment on this and if we -- pull -- that Rasmussen poll just one more time it talked about undecideds.
And voting other 35%.
-- -- 8%.
Up for grabs at least according to that hole.
So we talk about complacency getting people out to vote as you were mentioning.
Yeah that that's an important number right there that 8%.
You know I am a big believer in this something called the passion differential which is which side is more energized in oh wait clearly the Obama campaign the Democrats -- after eight years of George W.
Bush they were really pumped.
To win that election.
This year are so my side Republican side has been much more.
Energetic but up -- they cannot envision you'll hear -- mention it and she's changed and the passion differential according to polling is gone in fact there's some evidence that there's more action on the democratic side.
Sent -- we've -- so -- you know the state -- which I think there's someone really exaggerated.
But unless they all show movement for Obama.
And they show higher numbers of Democrats and -- I'll tell -- one number that I found out today but to mourn registered -- story last week.
Of the first 75077000.
Absentee ballots cast and I -- -- remember Iowa is slightly more Republican registration and Democrat.
But about equal moved in with independents and Republican to Democrat.
The Democrats have -- about seven these 7000 -- -- 50000.
Vote advantage -- of people last breaths on the votes cast such requests for -- -- -- it to grow frustrated of enthusiasm right Democrats.
The point you're making it Heather.
With that 8% that you were focusing on those people up for grabs they typically go against an incumbent.
But in the absence of -- Romney message there frozen.
Or potentially even moving back to Obama which is why the numbers are jumping around there and you know them in the state polls and in the Romney people you know the Obama people are.
Promoting them and you know we have a bunch of them and they -- show.
Him -- -- kill us we let me.
Talk about that let's talk that some of those key swing -- -- specifically.
Ohio and Florida and Virginia we've heard this said before.
That there's no way that Romney can win if he can't win these three states the president agree with that and then halting -- taking marketed these numbers of what Amy.
-- -- Looked at these numbers and I've looked at every poll in each of these three states.
The Florida numbers show a slight lead for President Obama there other polls that are a little tiger Ohio.
Fox numbers reflect a general trend that the Obama campaign has a -- -- lead that is.
On ambiguous Virginia again -- been some tighter polls but bottom line Obama is ahead.
And if you look at those polls which he said Heather is exactly right.
The president will be reelected if he wins one of those three states if he wins all three it's a done deal you know.
And then we've -- that Ohio is the one that is -- -- had trouble with what -- what -- dog and I talked repeatedly that he ought to pick senator Portman as his running -- -- and I can -- locked -- an -- but with the let's just you know -- but either one is something better than -- -- the the larger question here is there is a sense of momentum there are other other media polls in the state.
And they're in there and they're doing random -- -- dirty secret is no one really knows what party preferences right now.
And doing if you -- hole like I sometimes you'll voter registration looks actual -- You'll get a different result but what's happening is is the media is driving -- narrative.
That is supportive of that the president has -- the selection away in the swing states by polls.
I'm not saying the president I said before the presence movie he's had the upper hand.
But nowhere near the -- agencies state polls are showing you couldn't have a national race this close and have all the swing states by definition in the middle.
Being having huge opening show one of the things -- media is doing is driving a limit of momentum story.
In the Romney people are helping themselves to say Obama's gonna win it's all over must be driving that -- it.